---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40133262.md"
description: "$Tesla(TSLA.US)The market still gives it a 380x P/E ratio. The core issue is not "whether it's profitable now," but rather:The market is pricing the "future options," not the current automaker.I. "The road is long,"1. FSD / Robotaxi: Still in pilot phase, far from profitable - FSD now: - ~1.1 million users in North America, $99/month subscription- Annual revenue ≈ $1.3 billion, net profit possibly $400–500 million- Compared to Tesla's current market cap: almost negligible- Robotaxi: - Only small-scale trial operations in a few cities like Austin- No safety driver, nationwide rollout, commercial profitability: at least 2–3 years away 2. Optimus humanoid robot: Just about to start trial production, profits are far off - Summer 2026: Small-batch trial production (thousands of units per month)- 2027: Only then might large-scale mass production begin- Cost: Target $20,000 per unit- Price: Estimated $35,000–60,000- Truly contributing significant profits:After 2028–2030, or even later None of these businesses are profitable now; they're even burning money. II. But why does the market still dare to give it a 380x P/E? Because Wall Street values Tesla by splitting it into two parts: 1. Automotive business: Given an extremely low valuation- Traditional automaker P/E: 5–10x- Tesla's automotive business: The market only gives it 5–8x- Meaning: The car business is not valuable now, even a drag2. The real source of valuation: The "option value" of future AI businesses- FSD + Robotaxi + Optimus- Institutional calculations: This part accounts for 60–80% of the current market cap- Logic: It doesn't matter if it's not profitable now; as long as it can create a trillion-dollar market in the future, it's worth a sky-high price now. III. What exactly is everyone "waiting" for?Not waiting for profits, but waiting for signals of "whether it can succeed."1. Waiting for the "capability inflection point" of FSD / Robotaxi- Waiting for: Fully driverless, safe and reliable, scalable across cities- Once it appears: - Valuation logic shifts from "story" → "actionable business"- P/E can drop from 380 to 80–150x, but the stock price may not necessarily fall 2. Waiting for the "mass production and cost inflection point" of Optimus - Waiting for: Stable mass production of Gen3, cost truly dropping below $20k- Waiting for: Factory usability, willingness of manufacturing/logistics to buy- Once verified: - The market will directly value it based on a future 1 million units/year- Profit per unit $5,000–10,000- Annual profit $5–10 billion → given a 30–50x P/E → $1.5–5 trillion market cap 3. Waiting for confirmation of the "AI platform" narrative - The market wants to confirm:Tesla ≠ AutomakerTesla = Physical AI company (autonomous driving + robots)- Once the narrative is solidified: - Valuation benchmarked against: NVIDIA, Google, AI chip companies (P/E 30–80x)- Not Ford, Volkswagen (5–10x) - As long as the AI story remains, even if automotive profits decline, the P/E will be hard-pressed to truly fall to 300- Once the AI story breaks (e.g., FSD fails, Optimus is delayed), the P/E will directly drop to 20–50x→ Stock price falls 70–85% A 380x P/E is not pricing the current Tesla; it's pricing Tesla in 2030. According to this earnings report and Musk's statements, the story is still intact, and the valuation can continue."
datetime: "2026-04-23T11:57:58.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40133262.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40133262.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40133262.md)
author: "[看遍世界景赚足天下钱](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/1975064.md)"
---

# $Tesla(TSLA.US)The market still gives it a 380x P/…


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## Comments (1)

- **长线持有者 · 2026-04-27T03:19:37.000Z**: fsd will have at least 100 million users in the future, right?