--- title: "[True Insight Hong Kong Stock Masters] The US-Israel-Iran Stalemate Persists: The \"$100\" Game of Oil Prices" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40157146.md" description: "As the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict enters its eighth week, the war, once thought to be potentially short-lived, has evolved into a deep strategic game concerning the global energy lifeline. As of April 23rd, although the U.S. and Iran have formally extended the ceasefire, the blockade and counter-blockade drama in the Strait of Hormuz continues, with international oil prices fluctuating wildly around the $100 per barrel mark. The current situation exhibits the complex characteristic of "political chill, economic heat." The second round of U.S.-Iran talks, originally scheduled for April 22nd in Pakistan, was shelved due to Iran's refusal to attend. Despite U.S. President Donald Trump announcing an extension of the ceasefire period..." datetime: "2026-04-24T02:06:05.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40157146.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40157146.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40157146.md) author: "[真灼财经](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/1067948.md)" --- # [True Insight Hong Kong Stock Masters] The US-Israel-Iran Stalemate Persists: The "$100" Game of Oil Prices As the US-Israel-Iran conflict enters its eighth week, a war once thought likely to end quickly has evolved into a deep-seated game concerning the global energy lifeline. As of April 23, although the US and Iran have formally extended the ceasefire, the blockade and counter-blockade drama in the Strait of Hormuz continues, with international oil prices fluctuating violently around the $100 per barrel mark. The current situation exhibits a complex characteristic of "political chill, economic heat." The second round of US-Iran talks, originally scheduled for April 22 in Pakistan, was shelved after Iran refused to attend. Although US President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire and there were even reports of a possible 3 to 5-day negotiation window, the White House later denied setting a deadline, emphasizing that the pace of negotiations is determined by the President. Iran's stance is extremely tough, clearly stating that as long as the US maritime blockade is not lifted, the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has not only effectively severed this global oil transportation artery through mine-laying and patrols, but even seized ships attempting to pass during the ceasefire and announced the start of collecting "strait passage fees." Meanwhile, the US military not only maintains the blockade but has also intercepted multiple Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters, attempting to completely cut off Tehran's financial lifeline. At the same time, Israel's attitude adds uncertainty to the situation. Israel is highly vigilant about the US-Iran talks, updating its strike list targeting Iranian energy facilities and drawing a "red line." Israeli leadership believes Iran is stalling for time and is prepared to resume military operations at any moment. This bizarre state of "ceasefire but no cessation of action" prevents the tense nerves of the crude oil market from relaxing. On April 22, Brent crude futures prices briefly exceeded $101 per barrel, and New York crude also held above $89. The core logic currently traded by the market is no longer simply "war premium," but "cash flow depletion and inventory consumption." Goldman Sachs analysis points out that although the ceasefire reduces the tail risk of energy facilities being directly destroyed, the substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz and port blockades obstruct the flow of approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day. Global inventories are being rapidly depleted, and this "chronic bleeding" is more dangerous than a brief surge. Turkish President Erdogan pointed out that this war is "weakening Europe." The energy crisis is transmitted through the "logistics-chemicals-consumption" chain, costing the EU about €500 million per day. High natural gas and electricity prices are forcing companies to cut production, and residents' cost of living has risen significantly. Current oil prices show high-level volatility. As long as the blockade persists, Brent crude will remain in the $80 to $100 range within the year; but if negotiations break down and lead to renewed hostilities, oil prices could surge to $170 instantly. For the global economy, this crisis is no longer just a geopolitical issue but a profound stagflation threat. US gasoline prices have soared 35% in a month, while UK inflation has jumped to 3.3%. This game of "who is the winner" is being paid for by consumers worldwide. Written by: Professor Li Huifen, Greater Bay Area Family Office Association (I do not hold any of the above stocks.)