---
title: "Stock Live Trading P188: The Perils of Being Clever"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40164489.md"
description: "Many people think Lockheed Martin's sharp drop is because the war ended. I think this logic is wrong. It has fallen for 8 consecutive days. If we follow the war logic, wouldn't shorting it be like picking up money? Logically, if everyone went short, it definitely shouldn't fall further, because they are all short positions. But it did fall. I really can't figure out why. Let's review this stock. On the day the US-Iran war started, its night session surged to 750, and then it kept gapping up and closing lower. That means the good news was already realized on the first day of the war. So now that the war has ended..."
datetime: "2026-04-24T08:24:23.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40164489.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40164489.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40164489.md)
author: "[股神小顾](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/13638348.md)"
---

# Stock Live Trading P188: The Perils of Being Clever

Many people think the sharp drop in Lockheed Martin is because the war ended, but I think this logic is wrong. It has already fallen for 8 consecutive days. If we follow the war logic, wouldn't shorting it be like picking up money? Logically, if everyone went short, it shouldn't be able to fall further because it's all short positions. But it did fall. I really can't figure out why.

  
Let's review this stock. On the day the US-Iran war started, its night session surged to 750, and then it just kept opening high and closing low. This means the positive news was already fully priced in on the very first day of the war. So now that the war is ending, why can't this be the negative news being fully priced in?

  
All we know now is that the capital doesn't favor Lockheed Martin. They'd rather use this common sense to dump the stock than give it a little pump to harvest the naive investors. I thought Lockheed Martin was already quite cheap at $600. Back then, many people in the comments section saw me going long and started talking it down. Now Lockheed Martin is really at $530, in just a few short days. Looking at it this way, I really look like a clown. Because Lockheed Martin's volatility is usually very small, its daily fluctuations. But these past few days, it's been falling several percentage points each day. If you had bought put options, you could have made over a hundred times your money.

  
I bought Boeing and Daikang Industries on a simulated account before. They once fell 20-30 points, and now they've basically recovered all the losses, though I haven't broken even yet. This also shows that as long as you're buying the underlying stock without leverage, it will eventually recover. Lockheed Martin can't be worse than Boeing. Since Boeing can recover, why not Lockheed Martin?

  
So, deep down, I'm not panicking. The only thing that feels uncomfortable is that everyone else is picking up money elsewhere, while I'm the only one holding onto a solid logic and losing money continuously. Although all I'm losing is time, time itself is life. Being trapped like this is also a waste of capital and life, isn't it?

But since it's fallen to this point, there's really no reason to cut losses. I'll just stubbornly hold onto my precious metals and defense stocks and wait for clear skies. The world can't be peaceful forever. If it really is peaceful forever, then consider it my contribution to the world. Anyway, I don't have much money. I need to think bigger.

### Related Stocks

- [BA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BA.US.md)
- [BA-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BA-A.US.md)

## Comments (26)

- **金魚妹の股海逆襲 · 2026-04-27T10:59:02.000Z · 👍 1**: Please go buy semiconductors, cause a semiconductor stock crash, and benefit the shareholders again.
- **長野原烟花店交易员 · 2026-04-25T09:19:08.000Z**: Didn't your CLF and NEM surge by seven or eight points? Why are you losing money today?
  - **不吃香菜的交易员** (2026-04-25T09:46:38.000Z): Isn't there still lmt😂 sbsw is also weak
  - **不吃香菜的交易员** (2026-04-25T09:50:02.000Z): CLF's strike price is so low, selling puts won't bring in much. Little Gu probably doesn't have the money to play deep ITM now either.
- **多才地牛 · 2026-04-24T12:52:50.000Z · 👍 1**: In the stock market, you'll never make money if you don't learn how to cut losses.
- **Joey_invests · 2026-04-24T11:47:18.000Z**: Gu Shen's problem is being too smart and reacting too quickly, which ironically leads to staying on the surface.He has a broad exposure to stocks, but relies entirely on gut feeling, with only one layer of reasoning. He hasn't delved deeply into any single one, nor has he used the multi-disciplinary
- **不吃香菜的交易员 · 2026-04-24T11:40:55.000Z · 👍 2**: Previously, @Guangdong Yellow-Haired Second Generation seemed to have mentioned the issue of Little Gu's slow reaction time. Apart from LMT, this stubborn focus on precious metals is another classic example. Gold started taking off in mid-2024, and the positive effects of central bank purchases 
  - **月光酱** (2026-04-24T15:34:09.000Z): Xiao Gu, hurry up and bottom-fish aluminum hahaha
  - **不吃香菜的交易员** (2026-04-24T15:59:40.000Z): When AA plummeted, Little Gu opened a sell put position. If he's still holding it, the floating profit should be minimal.
  - **月光酱** (2026-04-24T16:07:08.000Z): I really think aluminum is okay, I took a small position in A-shares hahaha (requesting friendly exchange)
- **拜登的交易员エウベル · 2026-04-24T11:17:27.000Z · 👍 2**: For a value-defensive stock like LMT, breaking below the moving average with a high volume decline indicates that the institutions behind it are starting to withdraw. War is not the only factor affecting the market. Boeing is on a recovery path, while Lockheed Martin seems more like it's borrowing f
  - **不吃香菜的交易员** (2026-04-24T11:28:47.000Z): Xiao Gu is always a step behind. The day he starts touching semiconductors again will be a sign that the semiconductor mania is about to end.
- **lilhao · 2026-04-24T10:24:05.000Z**: Peacemaker
- **xiaogulucky · 2026-04-24T10:06:22.000Z · 👍 2**: This year's Nobel Peace Prize must be you🤗
- **不吃香菜的交易员 · 2026-04-24T09:01:00.000Z · 👍 1**: Isn't it quite common to be shorted down when there's no market maker to support the price? Positive example: early $BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US), negative example: $Duolingo(DUOL.US)
- **超可爱的大泡泡 · 2026-04-24T08:57:01.000Z**: Gu Shen, rather than waiting for the already risen precious metals trend, it's better to go to consumption, etc., after all, this sector has been falling for a long time.
- **本就是梦境 · 2026-04-24T08:51:10.000Z**: Please buy AMD, I sold at 220, and was still smug about selling at the high point at the time. I set a buy order at 190 to buy back, but the lowest it fell to in the next two days was 192, and I just didn't manage to buy. After that, it kept soaring, and now it's at 330. I'm numb.
- **福建豁达三哥 · 2026-04-24T08:39:22.000Z · 👍 9**: When is the final dance?Not a random dance, but a slow dance, a rhythmic danceLet those who are prepared dance first, let those with a mature mindset dance firstThe first dancers lead the later ones, dance according to the specific situationDon't dance blindly, dance precisely, dance scientifically,
- **Xinghai · 2026-04-24T08:36:46.000Z**: The stock god is checking out the stocks on the market, which one do you still want to buy into, thinking of following a contrarian wave
- **皇牌交易员 · 2026-04-24T08:33:02.000Z**: Why is the downtrend continuing? Wait for it to bottom out before averaging down.
- **迪迪迪 · 2026-04-24T08:32:21.000Z · 👍 3**: Did you buy Lockheed Martin before? What made you place the order? Did it turn into value investing after getting trapped?You're just chasing the hot topic, not being smart.
- **KUNER · 2026-04-24T08:30:17.000Z · 👍 4**: It's just because you bought it that it plummeted.
- **xiaomayi666 · 2026-04-24T08:29:54.000Z · 👍 2**: What we should do now is sell, then buy semiconductors to help bring down semiconductor prices for everyone.
- **福建豁达三哥 · 2026-04-24T08:29:22.000Z · 👍 7**: When's the last dance? Last time, Tesla kept rising for several consecutive days. If you had gone all-in on calls at that moment, 50,000 would have quintupled on the first day, quintupled again on the second day, and multiplied 80 times on the third day. 5*5*5*80 = 100 million.
  - **福建豁达三哥** (2026-04-24T08:31:56.000Z): Dance of position allocation, each time using 1/10 of the position to hold, there will always be a time when it rises.