---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40164766.md"
description: "If chip productivity doesn't ultimately find real-world applications, it's just a bubble. If you believe production capacity isn't a bubble, then the application side must pick up. The question now is: do we keep chasing productivity, or do we refocus on the application side?Or do you firmly believe it's all a bubble and then run for the hills?I don't know. I'm curious about everyone's choice.$AMD(AMD.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$State Street® Bridgewater®AllWeather®ETF(ALLW.US)"
datetime: "2026-04-24T08:32:34.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40164766.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40164766.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40164766.md)
author: "[奇迹的交易员cola](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/10743314.md)"
---

# If chip productivity doesn't ultimately find real-…


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## Comments (42)

- **吉姆哈克的交易员 · 2026-04-24T09:52:25.000Z · 👍 16**: Working on large models, it's somewhat related to my field. Let me share my observations and views: oversupply on the production side, intense competition on the application side.I did some horizontal projects at school in the first half of the year, and the current situation can be summarized as fo
  - **闲庭信步纳斯达** (2026-05-06T06:21:51.000Z): Agreed, I feel that most people, including the original poster, haven't clearly distinguished between being bullish in the medium term and being bullish in the ultra-long term.
  - **闲庭信步纳斯达** (2026-05-06T06:22:27.000Z): Now is a node of AI steadily competing. It can't be considered the eve of an explosion, nor can it be considered a complete bubble.
- **oooyou · 2026-05-06T14:50:04.000Z · 👍 1**: The biggest problem now is that the chip funding chain has caught up, but production capacity is far behind, and application deployment is also lagging.Anyway, I'm bearish in the short term and also bearish in the long term because user-side demand is limited, far less than expected.
- **北畠显家的交易员 · 2026-04-24T16:44:37.000Z · 👍 2**: The inference side has always been undernourished. Don't look at the domestic situation; there's clearly a surplus of computing power domestically. Over in the US, there's a shortage of computing power, otherwise why would they use turbine generators to power AI computing centers? If there was enoug
  - **发发灰** (2026-04-26T18:15:10.000Z): That's a power shortage
- **NewUser_aYFzQ5 · 2026-04-24T13:42:26.000Z · 👍 2**: Without the application end, Meta, Google, and Microsoft can't make money. These semiconductor companies are just castles in the air and will die even worse sooner or later. To be honest, the entire fundamental basis of US stocks now is betting on the profitability of these few internet giants.
- **嘿嘿^ · 2026-04-24T12:42:23.000Z · 👍 2**: Even production without chips is already experiencing overcapacity, and more chip production will only lead to further oversupply.
  - **齊天弼馬溫** (2026-04-24T16:40:46.000Z): Sun Bro—this is called deflation😂
  - **嘿嘿^** (2026-04-24T16:44:22.000Z): No, production far exceeding demand is a recession. It's during a recession that attempts are made to expand production and increase demand.
  - **齊天弼馬溫** (2026-04-24T16:48:48.000Z): Same, it's all about overproduction and insufficient effective demand.
- **顺势&择时 · 2026-04-24T12:38:34.000Z · 👍 4**: I've been thinking about this issue for a few days.Simply put, I think the market's current expectations for the hardware side are significantly higher than for the application side, but this is a mismatch. Mismatches always end one day because the application side can't keep losing money to subsidi
- **Qrion · 2026-04-24T12:02:12.000Z**: Everything has just begun
- **nuaalanjia · 2026-04-24T11:52:35.000Z**: The application side of AI hasn't even reached the stage of cost reduction and efficiency improvement yet. At most, it's currently just about increasing the coverage of traditional businesses, which is basically picking up leftovers. Don't even talk about new quality productive forces. Qualitative c
- **波奇酱 · 2026-04-24T11:04:17.000Z**: I choose medical insurance.
- **阿米巴星人 · 2026-04-24T10:00:45.000Z · 👍 1**: We're still talking about this today. If end consumers aren't buying, how can the upstream make so much money? For most people, using AI is just for simple conversations, all on the free tier $Microsoft(MSFT.US). But I'm really worried about Softy blowing up 😅, scared, scared.
- **柚子梦 · 2026-04-24T08:53:19.000Z · 👍 1**: It feels like the app still needs to wait.
- **护花使者爱理财 · 2026-04-24T08:52:40.000Z**: Popular stocks as the base, niche stocks as the attack
- **Ming0706 · 2026-04-24T08:50:12.000Z**: Grok is too dumb to figure it out🧐🧐🧐
- **旺旺勇闯美股 · 2026-04-24T08:46:54.000Z · 👍 1**: Unless AI disappears, it's just a cyclical issue. Even if the current applications don't look good, we will continue to increase investment. This is not just about ROI, but also about market share.
- **发发灰 · 2026-04-24T08:44:49.000Z · 👍 1**: All the profits have been taken by the computing power side.
- **滚雪球的旅途 · 2026-04-24T08:38:44.000Z · 👍 5**: Firm on Microsoft, held it for a long time, won't sell until it's above 500😂
  - **懵懂大学生** (2026-04-24T08:40:30.000Z): Hope it drops 10CM tonight
  - **懵懂大学生** (2026-04-24T08:40:40.000Z): Didn't buy enough
  - **滚雪球的旅途** (2026-04-24T08:48:24.000Z): Bro, what's your cost basis? Feels like it might go up a bit tonight, unless new earnings reports bring a negative surprise.
- **你还年轻，三千万不够 · 2026-04-24T08:37:38.000Z · 👍 1**: But the application side is too picky about stocks.
- **止盈必须止盈 · 2026-04-24T08:34:14.000Z**: Sigh, I don't understand 😥
  - **奇迹的交易员cola** (2026-04-24T08:35:22.000Z): Hey, ask AI