--- type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40276346.md" description: "$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)继续上涨可能性很高，但到 10 万亿可能性很小。现在市值约 5.22 万亿。到 10 万亿，大概需要再涨 91%。如果股价翻到 10 万亿，市场必须相信两件事之一：第一，盈利继续巨大增长。比如 EPS 从当前 TTM 约 4 美元级别继续快速增长到 8–10 美元以上，而且市场仍愿意给 40–50 倍估值。第二，估值继续扩张。也就是市场愿意在 5 万亿体量上继续给更高倍数。但这更难，因为越大越需要真实现金流支撑。现在已经有分析提到 NVDA forward earnings 估值看起来没 TTM PE 那么夸张，约 26 倍预期盈利，但这本质上依赖未来盈利高增长兑现。 核心问题不是 10 万亿有没有可能，而是：NVDA 能不能从 AI 硬件大王，变成 AI 经济的利润总阀门。这就很难了。GPU + CUDA 生态 + 网络 + 系统级机柜 + 软件栈 + 数据中心供应链控制权。这很好，但客户能赚钱吗？如果 MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN、META 继续扩大 capex，NVDA 的订单会很强。但如果市场开始问：“买这么多 GPU 后，AI 产品到底赚了多少钱？”那 NVDA 的估值就会先被压。这也是为什么 NVDA 从 5 万亿到 10 万亿难度很大：它不只取决于自己，还取决于它客户的商业模式能否兑现。" datetime: "2026-04-29T03:55:41.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40276346.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40276346.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40276346.md) author: "[吉姆哈克的交易员](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/10212142.md)" --- # $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)继续上涨可能性很高，但到 10 万亿可能性很小。现在市值约 5.22… ### Related Stocks - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [META.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/META.US.md) - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [NVDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md) - [MSFL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFL.US.md) - [MSFO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFO.US.md) - [MSFD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFD.US.md) - [MSFU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFU.US.md) - [MSFX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFX.US.md) - [MSFY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFY.US.md) - [GGLS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GGLS.US.md) - [GGLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GGLL.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) ## Comments (19) - **HVF3lt · 2026-04-29T10:42:35.000Z**: Consensus bullish - **四条草金 · 2026-04-29T06:44:53.000Z**: It mainly depends on whether OpenAI's ghost story can continue. If it's well-written, the chips will sell well. - **hanwenly** (2026-04-29T09:31:46.000Z): Worthy of the return ranking - **四条草金** (2026-04-29T10:02:52.000Z): 👍🏻 - **浪大爷 · 2026-04-29T04:44:47.000Z · 👍 1**: Ten trillion should arrive in the second half of 2027, and it will definitely arrive by 2028. - **吉姆哈克的交易员** (2026-04-29T04:45:53.000Z): That's so scary. - **浪大爷** (2026-04-29T04:47:25.000Z): What's so scary? I don't even write code anymore, I basically rely on AI generation. This is just one industry... it will spread to all walks of life later. - **浪大爷** (2026-04-29T04:47:58.000Z): The key point is that AI-generated content has fewer bugs than human-written content. - **洒家特地来赚刀乐 · 2026-04-29T04:36:15.000Z · 👍 1**: Theoretically, it's quite difficult to reach 10 trillion in these two years, but the first company that can reach 10 trillion in the future will definitely still be NVIDIA. Most of the increased revenue can be converted into profit, and the growth rate will slow down, but it is also developing other - **岩山之上 · 2026-04-29T04:21:50.000Z · 👍 2**: It's already very expensive, there's no need to chase and invest further. The profit margin isn't high, better to play with something else. - **最小的羊 · 2026-04-29T04:21:05.000Z · 👍 1**: Already bought 400 yuan worth of call options. - **吉姆哈克的交易员** (2026-04-29T04:29:45.000Z): 😧 - **老胡爱分享 · 2026-04-29T04:03:20.000Z · 👍 1**: Logically correct, but there's some misunderstanding about the cloud-based intelligent agent. You probably aren't a STEM guy. - **吉姆哈克的交易员** (2026-04-29T04:04:47.000Z): Sorry to disappoint you, I'm a first-year CS graduate student. - **老胡爱分享** (2026-04-29T04:08:17.000Z): Little brother, don't be so sensitive, I don't even dare to comment on the opposition 😂. - **吉姆哈克的交易员** (2026-04-29T04:10:25.000Z): I don't mean to be confrontational, just replying. In the past two years, engineering has been different from before, with more emphasis on interdisciplinary integration. - **HQQH · 2026-04-29T04:01:21.000Z**: The demand for AI may exceed your imagination. - **吉姆哈克的交易员** (2026-04-29T04:02:39.000Z): Demand is not something you can just think up on a whim.