---
title: "GOOGL's earnings report is out tonight, can we still follow the overheated stocks?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40281456.md"
description: "$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) will release its Q1 earnings after the US market closes on April 29. The book expectations are quite optimistic—EPS $2.63, revenue $106.89B, with a Strong Buy rating of 26 Buy / 5 Hold. It just hit a new all-time high of $350.34 on April 27. But there's one data point that makes me hold off: the options market has priced in an earnings implied volatility of +/- 5.63% this time, while GOOGL's actual move over the past 4 quarters was only +/- 1.44%..."
datetime: "2026-04-29T09:36:37.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40281456.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40281456.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40281456.md)
author: "[好柿花生Option](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/27346521.md)"
---

# GOOGL's earnings report is out tonight, can we still follow the overheated stocks?

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) will release its Q1 earnings after the US market close on April 29th (Eastern Time).

On paper, expectations are quite optimistic—EPS $2.63, revenue $106.89B, with a Strong Buy rating of 26 Buys / 5 Holds. It just hit a new all-time high of $350.34 on April 27th. But one data point made me pause: the options market has priced in an earnings implied volatility of +/- 5.63% for this report, while GOOGL's actual move over the past 4 quarters has only been +/- 1.44%, making the IV premium nearly 4 times the historical average.

**In simple terms: the market knows something is going to happen this time, but doesn't know which direction. I'm thinking that rushing into long Calls at a time like this is basically giving money to market makers—once the earnings are out and IV crushes, you might not make money even if you get the direction right.**

**There are two key things to watch this time: the commercialization progress of Gemini AI, and whether YouTube ads can withstand the overall softness in the ad market.** Cloud business margins are another hidden key—as long as cloud margins don't suddenly collapse. But this stock is already up +78% YTD and +118% TTM, and its valuation is already pricing in "excellent execution + AI benefits" quite fully. Even earnings that merely "meet expectations" could trigger a sell-off by short-term profit-takers due to "lack of surprise".

So, I personally plan to sit out tonight's earnings and get on board after the numbers are out and the IV crush is over. Here's the specific plan—

Set up a Bull Put Spread on the May 16th (DTE 17) expiration:  
Sell GOOGL 5/16 $335 Put (a 4–5% pullback level post-earnings)  
Buy GOOGL 5/16 $325 Put for insurance  
Net credit received ≈ $250–300 / contract (depends on where IV settles post-earnings)  
Max loss ≈ width × 100 - net credit = $1000 - $300 = risk per contract locked at $700–750  
Stop loss trigger: Close the position immediately if the spot price breaks below $328 (don't wait for expiration to avoid assignment risk)

This structure doesn't bet on direction or magnitude, only on "GOOGL not crashing more than 7% after earnings". I could still be wrong—if Gemini data is significantly below expectations or cloud margins collapse, and GOOGL drops 10%+, this trade will still blow up. But the maximum loss is locked in at the time of placing the order, so I know exactly how much I could lose.

Looking at the GEX, key gamma magnet levels for the May OPEX are: resistance around the $360 round number (call wall accumulation area), and support around $330 (put wall + earnings pullback level). This is also the basis I used to determine the sell put strike price. I'll check for changes in these two levels again after tonight's numbers.

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