---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40290308.md"
description: "$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) Sigh, this is tough. I did some calculations. Trading volume has been shrinking over the past couple of days, and Rakuten has way too many shares on hand. You can check my previous articles; I've analyzed a lot of this already.To add one more thing, stocks like ASTS and $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) are both super high-volatility plays.If Rakuten wants to find someone to take over their position, I estimate the stock price would have to be discounted by 50%, meaning back to around $100. They'd need to offer at least half the price for any institution to be willing to take it on as a block trade. I reckon even if someone takes it, they'd gradually sell it off, but not as aggressively.They have over 27 million shares! They started selling when it was around $100. Even now, their average price is still above $75. Even if it eventually drops to just above $50, they'd still be getting an extra 20% on the sale. Do the math: over 27 million shares times $20 is how much money? If it were me, I'd also sell in the secondary market, not look for a buyer.The main thing is, all of this is still compliant. The company can't interfere.So the outcome is: the more they sell, the fewer buyers there are below. They can only drive the price lower. The volume shrinkage is getting worse. Everyone is waiting for them to finish selling before entering. No one wants to bear that much pressure, buying in at higher costs like $10, $20 above the current price. For big money, every $10 is a lot of money, even every $5, every $1 is a lot.Then, the company dropped from around $100 to the $60s, a direct reduction of over 30%. The market cap shows it too, basically falling from nearly $40 billion to around $26 billion. A drop to $20 billion isn't out of the question.Also, many positive catalysts are basically in late May and June, like satellite launches. But that brings up SpaceX. Did you guys analyze their recent earnings report? Was there a problem or not? If there was, that's another negative. And this one is the most serious because it's a negative for the entire space sector.Looking at it now, they've probably sold around 10 million shares. Wait for the announcement in a couple of days. I'll post if there's an announcement, otherwise forget it.The scariest thing is they still have around 17 million shares left, estimated. That's the most frightening part. Especially since that includes about 14 million shares later on that don't require disclosure. Now we're watching these 6+ million shares. See if there's a bounce after the announcement comes out.Can't say for sure, but getting back above $90 within two months shouldn't be a problem. But this period will really be hard to endure. Plus, the overall market is too high now. Ugh! Observed for a year, and this is how it treats me after I buy in.. 😂 Even if I hadn't sold the small rocket (referring to RKLB?), it wouldn't have been this bad. This thing is about to grind away all my profits for the year. 🤕"
datetime: "2026-04-29T14:15:20.000Z"
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  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40290308.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40290308.md)
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author: "[彩子](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/19338703.md)"
---

# $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) Sigh, this is tough. I d…


### Related Stocks

- [ASTS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ASTS.US.md)
- [RKLB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RKLB.US.md)

## Comments (91)

- **彩子 · 2026-04-29T14:27:31.000Z · 👍 7**: If you want to bottom-fish or do anything else, my suggestion is to wait for the announcement. Operate only after those 6 million-plus shares have been completely sold. At least this portion must be announced. I have no opinion. I have such a headache that I want to bring the money I withdrew back i
  - **(新手)** (2026-04-29T14:30:32.000Z): I'm holding the underlying stock; I've been scared off by options for a long time.
  - **启明俊** (2026-04-29T14:37:05.000Z): Cai Ge, why do you think it will definitely break even? I'm already numb. I originally wanted to sell at 72 when the market opened today, but I didn't manage to get out. Double the loss, I'm already n
  - **彩子** (2026-04-29T14:41:11.000Z): Double. If you have the patience and can't break even in a few months, come and get me. 🙃 There's really no way around such a big blunder. No one wants it this way, unless those people are shorting.
- **再也不做T了 · 2026-04-30T14:11:43.000Z · 👍 1**: Brother Caizi, it's up.
- **←顾小神股← · 2026-04-29T22:33:30.000Z**: Bought leaps calls expiring in 2028. Let's tough it out together.
- **气贯长虹m · 2026-04-29T17:26:35.000Z**: You're in a relationship again
- **三思而后行 · 2026-04-29T17:08:35.000Z**: My advice is to be decisive and cut your losses. The selling just goes on and on, no idea when it'll end.I was holding a few hundred shares of the double, and I also sold about ten 75PUTs, all with near-term expiries. When the stock price dropped to around 75, I cut my losses all at once. Looking ba
- **Robert Reed · 2026-04-29T16:58:44.000Z**: Brother Caizi, when can ASTX get back to fifty? I'm already deep in the red.
  - **彩子** (2026-04-29T17:03:18.000Z): To double 50, the stock price would have to reach 100. Looking at the current situation, it would take at least a month or more. 🤣 I don't remember pushing it that high.
- **半山外賣仔 · 2026-04-29T16:39:36.000Z**: Actually, this can be seen from both sides. Mainly, many people see other stocks rising while it's still falling. If everyone were falling together, Caizi wouldn't feel much pressure either. I'm still continuing to buy the dips. Right now, the entire space sector is waiting for concrete news from Sp
- **Epi_chan · 2026-04-29T16:20:55.000Z**: Yesterday, I cleared out the space and software positions, and swapped them for $Nokia(NOK.US) and $Intel(INTC.US). Today, they both took off.
  - **彩子** (2026-04-29T16:38:45.000Z): I'm also following those two, but I can't see the entry point, so I don't dare to buy.
  - **Epi_chan** (2026-04-29T16:47:41.000Z): These two stocks still have potential in the short term, with strong momentum, and their fundamentals have fundamentally improved. For the software and space sectors, I'm still bullish on the core sto
  - **彩子** (2026-04-29T17:04:06.000Z): I've made these points very clear. 🤣 A $30 billion company, and he wants to directly sell $3 billion. What do you think? The selling pressure is probably going to last a long time.
- **趋势价值188 · 2026-04-29T15:42:26.000Z**: Bro, I'm bagholding RKLB at a 10% loss. Is it going to keep falling? I'd like to hear your opinion.
- **日落时起舞 · 2026-04-29T15:10:34.000Z**: I've been selling calls on ASTS. Fortunately, I covered the loss by buying one more lot. Plus, BE surged today, and I made a good profit from selling puts, which offset today's decline. Otherwise, it would have fallen back sooner or later. It's really frustrating to see it drop like this.
- **youtsuki.l · 2026-04-29T15:06:02.000Z**: 11th earnings report
- **价值&价值投机 · 2026-04-29T14:57:26.000Z**: Fortunately, I sold a put, created a spread, and bought a put below for protection, so the loss wasn't as painful.
- **MAURY · 2026-04-29T14:56:32.000Z**: Don't even mention options, I couldn't stand the double loss and cut my losses to get out.
- **ELSE_YE · 2026-04-29T14:56:20.000Z**: Brother Cai, the key is whether the satellite might be enough, is it a pre-buried bomb?
- **我有两只猫 · 2026-04-29T14:53:07.000Z**: Waiting for it to reach around 50, thinking of going all in on this one.
- **我不想说 · 2026-04-29T14:53:03.000Z · 👍 1**: For over 6 million shares, an announcement will be issued; for the remaining less than 5%, they can be sold at will without needing to file a record.
  - **彩子** (2026-04-29T14:56:19.000Z): I've said it before. You can check it out.
- **大力哥 · 2026-04-29T14:44:01.000Z · 👍 2**: Actually, holding double the amount for such high-volatility stocks is more reassuring, because with double the amount you can sell call options. I think the difference in gains compared to the August call options isn't that significant.
  - **彩子** (2026-04-29T14:46:24.000Z): Yes. At that time, I saw little difference.
  - **大力哥** (2026-04-29T14:51:05.000Z): Moreover, you can also do day trading, the liquidity of options is too poor.
  - **Turnover Trading** (2026-04-29T15:32:45.000Z): That woke me up, I'm going to sell calls to hedge.😯
- **赚到钱就跑，贪是原罪 · 2026-04-29T14:42:31.000Z · 👍 2**: I'm also lying in the "Little Rocket" with utter speechlessness. A bunch of people are shorting it there. My cost basis is 88, and I didn't sell when it hit 90 that day. It kept falling all the way back to 73. I wonder if it will drop below the 60s again and fight the 69 defense battle.
  - **彩子** (2026-04-29T14:44:26.000Z): If you want to trade, wait patiently for the earnings report. I haven't been sharing my views lately. If it weren't for the fact that the drop over the past couple of days has been so significant, and
  - **赚到钱就跑，贪是原罪** (2026-04-29T14:51:46.000Z): Just lying down for now, will check after the earnings report, all the money has been sucked away by savings.
- **股海漂泊 · 2026-04-29T14:42:13.000Z · 👍 1**: Three $80 call options lost me over 30% in a few days.
  - **彩子** (2026-04-29T14:44:37.000Z): Yes. It's been a tough few days.
  - **晴天** (2026-04-29T14:50:17.000Z): Options trading lost 50% in just 3 days, sigh.
- **阿巴阿巴007号 · 2026-04-29T14:39:50.000Z · 👍 1**: I'm still relatively optimistic. I'm bullish on it reaching 100 in May. Unfortunately, I have no money to add to my position, otherwise I would continue to buy more🌚
  - **阿巴阿巴007号** (2026-04-29T15:05:31.000Z): Not sure if I'm right, but my feeling is that this is pretty much the bottom.
- *... 1 more comments*