--- title: "Geely Auto (1Q26 Trans): FY export target raised to 750k units" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40293398.md" description: "Q2 GPM is expected to be stable to slightly higher vs. Q1. Product mix should further improve." datetime: "2026-04-29T15:03:03.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40293398.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40293398.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40293398.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)" --- # Geely Auto (1Q26 Trans): FY export target raised to 750k units **Below is Dolphin Research’s transcript of Geely Automobile FY26 Q1 earnings call. For our take on the results, see '**[**Geely: Per-vehicle net profit catches up with BYD King — is Geely ready to strike back?**](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40292940)**'.** **I. Key takeaways** 1\. **Guidance**: Full-year export target of 750k units, which management believes is well within reach. Full-year capex approx. RMB 17bn (vs. RMB 15bn last year), with R&D expensing ratio expected to stay around 44% for the year. 2\. **Core financials**: Q1 revenue RMB 83.8bn (+15% YoY); GPM 17.5% (+180bps YoY); core attributable net profit RMB 4.56bn (+31% YoY), a record high for the quarter. **Core NPM 5.4% (+14% YoY); core attributable net profit per vehicle RMB 6,429 (+30% YoY), a five-year high.** 3\. **Cash**: Total cash RMB 60.2bn at Q1-end, with net cash over RMB 45bn, near record levels. 4\. **Costs and R&D**: S&M ratio at 5.2% remained stable; G&A ratio fell to 1.6% (among best-in-class). R&D spend RMB 4.47bn, down 4.9% YoY and 38.2% QoQ; R&D expensing ratio rose to 44% (vs. 28.5% a year ago), materially improving earnings quality. 5\. **GPM outlook**: **Commodity inflation adds roughly RMB 2,000 per vehicle to costs, but savings should offset. Q2 GPM is expected to hold or tick up from Q1 as mix improves further.** **II. Detail from the call** **2.1 Management highlights** 1\. **Total sales and share** a. Q1 total sales were 709k units, up 1% YoY against an industry down 7.6% YoY. b. Market share rose to 11.95% (vs. 10.97% a year ago), ranking No.1 among China brands by sales. c. Revenue growth outpaced volume, and profit grew faster than revenue, reflecting organic growth. 2\. **By brand** a. ZEEKR: Q1 deliveries 77k (+86% YoY), ASP near RMB 300k with both volume and price rising. ZEEKR 9X has been the 500k-class luxury SUV sales champion for five straight months; ZEEKR 009 has led the \>RMB 400k MPV segment for two consecutive years. ZEEKR 8X exceeded 10k firm orders in 29 minutes post launch, with Alpha+ trims at 95.6%; deliveries topped 3k in 10 days, with Avg. order price above RMB 400k. b. Lynk & Co: Q1 sales 82k (+12% YoY); NEV sales 51k (+34% YoY), with a 62% NEV mix. Lynk 900 five-seat and six-seat variants are complementary, aiming to be a RMB 300k segment benchmark. c. Galaxy: Q1 sales 239k, becoming the fastest NEV brand globally to reach 2mn cumulative sales. Xingyue ranks No.1 across all brands in China NEV sedan sales, hitting 500k deliveries in 536 days; Galaxy E9 leads C-class 6-seat SUVs; Xingyao 8 leads mid-to-high-end PHEV sedans. d. China Star: Sales 312k, China’s No.1 self-owned ICE line for nine straight years. The premium series topped 100k units in the quarter, with the Boyue family exceeding 90k. 3\. **Dual engines: NEV and ICE** a. ICE sales were 340k units, with 10.71% share (+34bps YoY). b. NEV sales were 369k units, with 13.39% share (+170bps YoY), firmly in the industry’s first tier. 4\. **Exports and globalization** a. Q1 exports were 203k units (+126% YoY), a record for the period, ranking No.3 among China auto exporters (up from No.5 last year). b. NEV exports were 125k (+572% YoY), exceeding the full-year 2025 NEV export total in a single quarter; NEVs were 62% of exports. c. The overseas dealer network topped 1,900, with subsidiaries operating in 14 countries. d. Monthly sales in Mexico surpassed 4,000 units, putting Geely in the top three among China brands. 5\. **i-HAVE hybrid tech** a. Built on an AI hybrid architecture and the Joule Project, thermal efficiency reaches 48.41%, with combined fuel consumption as low as 2.22L/100km, a further 10% below Japanese hybrids. b. A new architecture combining 60C high-rate batteries, a 230kW high-power e-drive, and a high-efficiency engine, overturning the traditional hybrid approach of 'adding electric to an ICE base'. c. The AI Cloud Power 2.0 foundation model senses temperature, humidity, altitude, gradient, etc., enabling smart control strategies that cut fuel use by another 10%-15%. d. Electric-mode time share exceeds 80% (vs. 30%-50% for typical hybrids), with performance at 1.72x traditional hybrids. 6\. **Strategy (remarks by Gui Shengyue)** a. A record Q1 is only a start, and management is confident in continued progress each quarter. b. With brand integration largely complete, Geely is entering a new cycle of sustainable, improving profitability. c. Premium-led globalization is the top priority, with confidence to be the first China brand to challenge traditional BBA luxury marques. d. ZEEKR plans to start exports to the Middle East by end-Jun and push into Europe by Sep. **2.2 Q&A** **Q: What drives growth in key overseas markets and what is the outlook? Will the channel be built via existing overseas subsidiaries or from scratch?** A: The main growth driver overseas is rapid NEV expansion. Of Geely’s 203k Q1 exports, NEV exports were 125k, more than 5x YoY, surpassing the full-year 2024 NEV export total in a single quarter. By region, Geely aims to build three 200k markets: LatAm/Africa grew nearly 300% in Q1, with Brazil as a base to build a 200k market; ASEAN will also be built to 200k; and Europe (EU + UK) likewise to 200k. In parallel, two 100k–150k markets are planned: Eastern Europe to hold around 150k, and Central Asia and the rest of APAC to reach 100k as growth accelerates. The 750k full-year export target should be easy to achieve. On product, Geely started NEV exports 2–3 years later than peers, but the gap has narrowed to ~1 year. China Star’s main export pillars are the Emgrand and Boyue, and five core models will roll out globally. Galaxy will lean on Xingyuan, Xingyuan L5, and Starship 7, with particularly strong overseas orders for Xingyuan. Lynk & Co has reset its Europe strategy, pooling dealer resources with Volvo to push Lynk 01/008/07 in Europe. ZEEKR will anchor on 7X and 007 GT, with 9X ramping across the Middle East and Central Asia in Q3 and into Europe in Q4; 8X, as a global model, will launch across markets in Q4 or early next year. On operating model, Geely has subsidiaries in 14 countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, Australia, Mexico, Chile, the UK, South Africa, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, etc.), which has improved dealer selection and operating efficiency. The 2026 network target is \>1,300 stores, with dual ICE/EV channels for the Geely brand. Geely is also partnering locally, e.g., with Proton in ASEAN (Malaysia share rose from <10% at acquisition to 30% in Jan), and with Renault in Brazil via a JV (initially reserving \>100k capacity, with the plant scalable to 300k–400k). **Q: How is supplier payment collection improving domestically? Any progress on industry anti-cutthroat measures?** A: After MIIT and the industry association called in Jun 2025 for anti-cutthroat practices and faster supplier payments, Geely moved quickly. First, it shortened the max payment term in its procurement rules from 90 to 60 days; second, for some SMEs it cut to 30 days and in Sep last year moved to cash on delivery; third, at the Mar supplier conference, it announced a RMB 1bn supplier reserve fund to support pre-stocking and R&D amid commodity inflation. As a result, A/P days fell from ~110 days in Q1 2025 to ~90 days in Q3, and to 78 days in Q4. Even so, operating cash flow for full-year 2025 and Q1 2026 remained very strong. On anti-cutthroat competition, Geely focuses on tech, quality, service, and brand battles. In safety and quality in particular, it launched a Global Rights & Safety Center in Dec 2025, with a 297.17m crash test line (the world’s longest), and invested in two wind tunnels. It will spare no expense to ensure durability and reliability, and as exports accelerate, overall vehicle quality must be even safer and better. **Q: What is the outlook for capex and R&D this year? How about the R&D expensing ratio? Any one-offs behind only RMB 18mn profit contribution from JVs/associates in Q1?** A: Full-year capex is approx. RMB 17bn, broadly in line with last year’s RMB 15bn, factoring in scale growth. On R&D expensing, Geely has adjusted actively to address investor concerns: the expensing ratio rose from ~5% in 2018 to 36% in 2025, and to 44% in Q1 2026. Had Q1 kept last year’s 28.5% expensing ratio, profit would have topped RMB 5bn, but the ratio was raised to 44% to enhance reporting and earnings quality, and is expected to stay around that level for the year. **Q: How will i-HAVE be priced domestically? How will its GPM compare with ICE? Why did Q1 ASP fall RMB 6k QoQ? What is the full-year GPM trajectory?** A: On i-HAVE pricing, Geely’s full-stack in-house development, from the E/E architecture down to the parts BOM, allows 20%–30% lower costs vs. the industry. Toyota’s HEV delta vs. ICE has narrowed from RMB 12k–15k initially to RMB 9k–12k, and Geely still has \>30% cost savings on top, so i-HAVE will maintain roughly the same GPM as ICE while being price-competitive to displace ICE. Final pricing will be announced on Apr 30, and as scale builds, costs will diverge further from peers; the pricing logic ties PVA (perceived value), price, and cost to let users enjoy surplus value at a lower outlay. i-HAVE is planned to go Intl in Q4 this year. On ASP, there was in fact no drop. **Q1 2025 per-vehicle ASP was RMB 94k; Q1 2026 was RMB 112k (+18.3% YoY), flat vs. Q4 2025 at RMB 112k. External differences stem from non-vehicle revenue like parts and external tech licensing (e.g., batteries to Volvo), which moved around. By brand: ZEEKR ASP rose from RMB 281k to RMB 295k, near RMB 300k; the Geely brand rose from RMB 85k to RMB 91k; Lynk & Co edged down, mainly as Lynk 900 sales dipped QoQ in Q1.** On margins, Q1 2025 was 15.7% and Q2 was 17.2%; **the low Q1 last year was due to cost-reduction timing. In Q1 this year, ~80% of the cost-down was realized and should fully land by Q2. While higher copper/aluminum/lithium/chips add ~RMB 2,000 per vehicle, savings should offset, and the remaining 20% cost-down in Q2 should also cover commodity inflation. Overall, Q2 GPM should hold or edge up from Q1 as mix improves, with ZEEKR deliveries rising and 8X starting deliveries in Q2.** **Q: From the holding level, how does the smart-ecosystem company empower Geely Automobile (0175)?** A: Since the Taizhou Declaration, Geely has entered a new strategic transformation anchored on deep cross-brand collaboration, and progress has been significant. On R&D, brands share the core tech architecture and then tailor models to their positioning, sharply lowering R&D costs; on manufacturing, brands like ZEEKR, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy share plants domestically, and overseas capacity at Volvo, Proton, etc., can also serve multiple brands, supplemented by external partners like the Renault Brazil JV. Globalization is the priority. Geely will compete through brand, technology, quality, and service rather than pure price, combining competitive products with partners in a capital-light way to manage risk and share channels. Geely Holding is focused entirely on autos, and group companies will better empower Geely Automobile. **Q: For ZEEKR’s premium push overseas, how is dealer feedback on the products? What is the pricing strategy and per-vehicle profit outlook?** A: Dealer feedback has been highly positive. In design, the 9X and 8X have an undeniable premium feel; in materials, dealers called them 'luxurious'. Technically, several points stood out. First, performance: the SEA platform supports a tri-motor megawatt e-drive (P1 generator 145kW + P3 front drive 290kW + dual P4s at 370kW each, total 1,030kW ex-P1), delivering ~1,400hp comparable to a 36-cylinder engine, which few brands globally can match. Second, handling: body torsional rigidity reaches 42,400 N·m/deg, markedly boosting handling and off-road capability. Third, efficiency: even with a depleted battery, the 9X consumes only 6.7L/100km, which dealers found remarkable for such a high-performance car. In addition, the 8X debuts China’s first merchant-fusion super agent based on WAM (Vision-Action Model), offering a full stack from perception to thinking to decision to action; GSA 4.0 uses a VLM to enable mapless AD across scenarios, lifting control DoF by 200% and improving routing success in complex urban-village scenes by \>30% vs. the prior gen. A landmark moment: Mansory displayed a modified ZEEKR 9X at an auto show at RMB 2.7mn. Historically, Mansory only tuned Western luxury brands; this first China-brand choice signals strong recognition of ZEEKR’s luxury positioning. On pricing, while numbers cannot be fully disclosed, one point is clear: overseas GPM will exceed domestic by a wide margin. Geely’s overseas margins average 10ppt higher than at home, and the gap will be larger for ZEEKR’s high-end models; while the 9X has been resold above RMB 1.1mn via various channels, official exports will not be that high, and final pricing will balance profitability and scale under local-market rules. **Q: To confirm, is i-HAVE’s 20%–30% advantage vs. Toyota HEV at the BOM level or on price? How will i-HAVE replace ICE overseas?** A: The 20%–30% advantage is overall, but can be viewed primarily as BOM-side. Versus JVs, Geely has 20%–30% stronger cost control; if Toyota’s HEV delta vs. ICE is RMB 8k, Geely holds at least a 30% advantage on that delta, letting customers access hybrid tech at a lower incremental cost. As for replacing ICE overseas, i-HAVE is essentially an 'all-around' approach for ICE markets. Three reasons: it is developed on a pure EV platform, it delivers very low fuel consumption, and it offers very strong performance; by maximizing both, it cuts fuel use while outperforming traditional models. Especially where charging infrastructure is limited and NEV penetration is still low, i-HAVE is a compelling choice, and the focus now is on localization and dealer rollout. **Risk disclosure and disclaimer:**[**Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure**](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### Related Stocks - [00175.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00175.HK.md) - [80175.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/80175.HK.md) - [GELYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GELYY.US.md) - [ZK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ZK.US.md) - [HGMD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HGMD.SG.md) - [GELHY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GELHY.US.md)