--- title: "RIVN (1Q26 Trans): R2 deliveries back-end loaded; R2 and overall auto biz GPM to turn positive in Q4" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40347405.md" description: "R2 mass production will start on a single shift, with expansion to two shifts expected by end-2026. The Normal plant's 'North Star' target is to reach 4,000 units/week profitably." datetime: "2026-05-01T06:23:12.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40347405.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40347405.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40347405.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)" --- # RIVN (1Q26 Trans): R2 deliveries back-end loaded; R2 and overall auto biz GPM to turn positive in Q4 **Dolphin Research's Trans of RIVN FY26 Q1 earnings call is below. For our take, cf. '**[**Rivian: Pushing Through the Pain — Can R2 Drive a Comeback Against the Wind?**](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40347327)**'.** **I. Key financials recap** 1\. **Outlook (FY26)**: Reiterated full-year deliveries of 62,000–67,000 units (R1, R2 and commercial vans). Q2 deliveries guided to 9,000–11,000 units, with **R2 back-half weighted**.Maintained Adj. EBITDA loss guidance of $1.8–2.1bn. Kept capex at $1.95–2.05bn, **mainly for R2 completion and tooling at the Normal plant, continued sales/service/charging buildout, and kickoff of the Georgia greenfield site. The Normal plant was hit by a tornado two weeks ago but production has resumed; FY26 guidance unchanged.** 2\. **Key financial metrics**: Q1 consolidated revenue was ~$1.4bn (+11% YoY). Consolidated GP was $119mn with GPM of 9% (including $122mn D&A and $27mn SBC).**Adj. EBITDA loss was $472mn, driven by R2 SOP prep and autonomy investments.** Q1 production was 10,236 units and deliveries 10,365; auto revenue was $908mn. Auto GP was a loss of $62mn (vs. a $92mn GP in the prior-year quarter), **mainly on a $100mn decline in regulatory credit sales and lower volume, plus $45mn higher combined D&A+SBC.Auto GPM is expected to be pressured in Q2–Q3 due to new model launch complexity, turning positive in Q4. By FY26 exit, both R2 unit economics and overall auto GM are expected to be positive.** 3\. **Software & Services**: Q1 revenue was $473mn (+49% YoY) with GP of $181mn.**About 60% ($282mn) came from the Volkswagen Group JV, RV Tech; the rest from remarketing, parts and services.** 4\. **Funding roadmap**: Cash, cash equivalents and ST investments stood at ~$4.8bn at quarter-end. In FY26 the company expects $2.55bn from strategic partners: $1.0bn equity from Volkswagen Group received today upon RV Tech winter-testing milestones (covering Volkswagen, Audi and Scout reference models), and $300mn equity from Uber later this quarter (conditional, tied to the agreement).In FY26, it also expects $1.0bn non-recourse debt from Volkswagen Group and an additional $250mn equity from Uber (robotaxi development milestones). **Together, FY26 total liquidity plus expected capital approaches ~$8bn.** 5\. **DOE loan (material capital structure update)**: The U.S. Dept. of Energy loan totals up to $4.5bn (~$4.0bn principal + ~$0.5bn capitalized interest), providing low-cost financing for the Georgia greenfield at up to 80% LTV, **with draws expected to begin in early 2027. Phase-one capacity at Georgia has been raised by 50% from 200k to 300k/yr (mid-size platform), with SOP still targeted for end-2028.Combined Illinois Normal + Georgia capacity will reach 515k/yr, which management views as the base to achieve positive FCF. Current available liquidity plus expected capital totals about $13.6bn.** No IEEPA tariff recovery was recognized this quarter; potential future recovery is 'tens of millions of dollars' and already embedded in guidance. **II. Earnings call details** **2.1 Management highlights** 1\. **R2 SOP milestones** a. Saleable R2 production started last week at the Normal, Illinois plant, with initial deliveries to employees now underway (the CEO calls R2 his daily driver). Broad customer deliveries begin in spring; R2 targets the high-demand 5-seat SUV/crossover segment as a premium EV for daily commute and weekend use. b. **R2 BOM is roughly half that of the R1 platform. Non-production COGS are expected to fall by 50%+ via design-for-manufacturing and fixed-cost dilution as volumes ramp; R2 has achieved notable purchasing leverage vs. R1 across many components.** c. **Key design shifts: large castings, a structural battery pack, an all-new high-efficiency drive unit, a next-gen E/E architecture (removing significant copper), and high-voltage electronics integrated into a single housing.** d. R2 SOP starts on one shift and is expected to expand to two shifts by late 2026. The Normal plant’s 'North Star' is profitable output of **4,000 units/week**. 2\. **Georgia manufacturing expansion** **a. Secured up to $4.5bn in DOE financing for the Georgia greenfield. Phase-one capacity is increased from 200k to 300k/yr and will be fully built on the upper pad; the lower pad remains untouched greenfield for future expansion, which could utilize non-DOE financing.** **b. Georgia remains on track for end-2028 SOP for the mid-size platform. It will support a combined 515k/yr capacity across Indiana and Georgia.** 3\. **Autonomy roadmap** a. The third-gen autonomy hardware centers on the in-house Rivian Autonomy Processor (RAP1): 800 TOPS per chip, two per vehicle, ~4x the compute vs. the prior NVIDIA-based platform. Validation and reliability testing are progressing well. b. Feature trajectory: launch point-to-point on consumer vehicles this year. In 2027, enable hands-off + eyes-off (Level 3) in specific geos; in 2028, first deploy Level 4 across robotaxi and personal ownership scenarios (same stack, with extra sensors for robotaxi). c. R2 will receive the Gen 3 autonomy hardware suite within the year, including LiDAR and broader perception upgrades. 4\. **Uber strategic partnership** a. Announced in Mar. to accelerate shared autonomy. This year, deploy supervised test vehicles with safety operators in San Francisco and Miami as the first milestone (unlocking $250mn from Uber); aim for fully driverless operations in both cities in 2028 and reach 25 cities by 2031, unlocking the remaining $700mn. b. The core rationale is network density at scale on Uber’s platform, avoiding the heavy capex of independently building a massive fleet. 5\. **Large Driving Model (LDM)** a. Since Gen 2 R1, the autonomy system has used an end-to-end Large Driving Model (akin to a foundation model/neural network) vs. legacy rules-based AV 1.0 stacks. b. More sensing and compute deliver net gains without losing learned behavior; the model simply 'sees clearer' and 'reasons deeper'. LiDAR on prototypes (e.g., the Palo Alto ground-truth fleet) is already feeding the LDM to accelerate learning, so when R2 LiDAR is activated for Level 4, it will not be starting from zero miles. 6\. **Technology licensing** **a. Category 1: E/E architecture — moving from distributed domain ECUs (50–150 small compute nodes per car) to a centralized zonal architecture with a unified OS, enabling OTA and cross-domain AI integration. The first external deployment is Volkswagen Group’s ID.1 (Europe, priced slightly above €20k equivalent).** **b. Category 2: Autonomy — integrated licensing of hardware (RAP1 compute + camera/radar/LiDAR suite) and software (LDM), with a highly portable architecture.** 7\. **R1 and commercial** a. R1 leads high-end electric SUV and, in some states, overall high-end SUV sales regardless of powertrain. Rising fuel prices are supporting trade-ins from gasoline cars, though management refrains from calling duration. b. The Amazon partnership continues to scale, with commercial revenue approaching ~50% of auto revenue this quarter (above historical levels) as Amazon’s EV infrastructure and ops readiness improve. The extended-range van has attracted broader interest, but near-term focus remains on Amazon ramp. 8\. **Mind Robotics deconsolidation** a. Q1 recognized $506mn in other income from Mind Robotics’ Series A financing and deconsolidation. Rivian now holds ~38% of Mind Robotics (on an outstanding-share basis). 9\. **Rivian Assistant** a. In the coming weeks, R1 and R2 will receive Rivian Assistant — an AI-driven in-vehicle voice assistant serving as a 'digital co-pilot' integrating vehicle functions and external apps. **2.2 Q&A** **Q: What is the mitigation plan for rising commodity prices, especially aluminum? How large is the impact?** A (RJ Scaringe): We are deeply focused on supply-chain dynamics, with aluminum and other raw materials in focus. Over the past few years we’ve expanded and upgraded procurement, as the supply chain has inherent uncertainty and volatility requiring proactive engagement.We are strengthening relationships with incumbents and developing alternative sources for key commodities, having put contingency plans in place. **Q: Positive FCF requires the full Normal + Georgia ramp to 515k — does that imply a long runway to FCF positive? How should we think about capex near term and pre-SOP in Georgia?** A (Claire McDonough): **We reach positive FCF as Normal + Georgia together ramp to 515k. Note the $4.5bn DOE loan supports Georgia at up to 80% LTV, so while capex rises into SOP, the capital roadmap provides a significant offset.The DOE loan is just one part of our ~$13.6bn total liquidity and expected capital — alongside cash on hand, the AVL credit facility, and expected capital from Volkswagen and Uber over the coming years.** **Q: Has the DOE loan amount changed? A prior disclosure mentioned $6.6bn.** A (Claire McDonough): We’re disclosing today that **the DOE loan totals $4.5bn, dedicated to Georgia’s phase-one expansion. In tandem, phase-one capacity increases from 200k to 300k/yr.The capital roadmap is designed to scale Georgia to bring Rivian to a meaningful volume level.** **Q: Does the DOE loan now cover only the 300k phase-one? Has the total project scope shifted from Phase 1 200k + Phase 2 200k = 400k to a single 300k? Is there room to expand Georgia further?** A (Claire McDonough): The strategic decision is to lift phase one from 200k to 300k. That will be fully built on the upper pad, leaving the lower pad as untouched greenfield for future expansion. **Q: Will future expansion be financed without DOE funds, using more internal means? Is the loan tied only to the 300k first phase?** A (Claire McDonough): The loan aligns with phase one. The key change is that as phase-one capacity increased, the loan size was set accordingly. **Q: How much IEEPA tariff was paid over the past year? Did you apply for refunds, and did you recognize any this quarter?** A (Claire McDonough): We did not recognize any IEEPA refund this quarter, **but we see a path to recovery in the 'tens of millions' range in the future.** **Q: Is that potential refund already included in the reiterated guidance?** A (Claire McDonough): It is included in current guidance. **Q: The Uber partnership suggests autonomy R&D accelerates in 2027 — does any of that spill into 2026? Any change to FY26 R&D?** A (Claire McDonough): **More of the acceleration shows up in 2027, but FY26 will also see a full-year step-up.** Q1 cash R&D was up 22% YoY, which is a directional proxy for the remaining quarters. **Q: Does optimizing Georgia capacity affect the long-term 25% GM target? Early demand signals for R2 post-config reveal?** A (RJ Scaringe): **Raising Georgia phase-one reflects confidence in our products and business. With R2 now in SOP at Normal, early media and customer events have been exceptionally positive — from packaging and driving feel to tech integration.That supports the ramp this year and next, and sets a strong base for R2/R3 and derivatives to ship from Georgia.** **Q: Will the robotaxi hardware be shared with personal vehicles? If Level 4 launches in 2028 in complex markets like SF and Miami, does that imply a wide ODD for the personal version?** A (RJ Scaringe): As outlined at last year’s Autonomy Day, Level 4 will roll out in phases — **point-to-point on consumer cars later this year; eyes-off (L3) in specific areas in 2027; first Level 4 in 2028, initially as robotaxi (with extra sensors vs. pure consumer trims).**We are concurrently planning a personal Level 4. High-value use cases for personal L4 include autonomous drop-offs at airports, grocery runs and taking kids to sports, all of which also create value in robotaxi. **Q: What are the key milestones to get R2 to positive GM (by year-end)? With commodity volatility, how confident are you in today’s BOM? Biggest challenges during ramp?** A (RJ Scaringe): The BOM reflects contractual negotiations across hundreds of suppliers. R2 enjoys stronger sourcing leverage vs. R1 given Rivian’s improved credibility and industry interest in R2, yielding very attractive commercial terms.**Today’s R2 BOM is roughly half of R1’s. Aside from unforeseen raw material swings or DRAM tightness, most BOM elements are stabilized, and we are confident in achieving a BOM that supports healthy GM.** A (Javier Varela): We celebrated the first saleable units last week and began customer deliveries this week. Industrial processes are in place; the workforce is fully trained with pilot builds completed, the plant is ready and processes defined.We brought in CISOM leaders with deep ramp experience and continue to manage the supply chain, with key suppliers stationing teams on-site. Transparent, collaborative supplier management — resilience, agility and intelligence — is critical to success. **Q: From LiDAR going on-car in H2 this year to Level 4 launch, how much testing is required?** A (RJ Scaringe): It comes down to the architecture. The Gen 2 R1 platform uses an end-to-end LDM (akin to a neural-network foundation model).All Gen 2 R1s, early R2s and LiDAR-equipped R2s feed the same model, unlike rules-based AV 1.0 where adding sensors/compute can create brittle behavior. LiDAR data from prototypes, including the Palo Alto ground-truth fleet, is already accelerating LDM learning; customer cars won’t be 'starting from zero' when LiDAR first goes live. **Q: Commercial was ~50% of auto revenue in Q1 (above historical). How is Amazon progressing, and what is interest from others post extended-range launch?** A (RJ Scaringe): Our Amazon partnership since 2019 remains a point of pride — from early development and first SOP to Amazon’s infrastructure upgrades to absorb EVs, all of which underpin today’s ramp. We expect Amazon demand to continue rising.Amazon is an ideal, scaled launch customer, far larger than others; **we do see opportunities with other customers, but near-term focus remains on Amazon volume ramp.** **Q: DOE loan now supports the 300k phase one — why not preserve low-cost DOE capital for a future phase two? Was this your choice or DOE’s?** A (Claire McDonough): We’re pleased to partner with DOE on the $4.5bn loan — it will create thousands of U.S. jobs and reinforce U.S. leadership in manufacturing and technology. It is a highly cost-efficient form of capital.**The $4.5bn’s core purpose is to help Rivian scale to 515k capacity and support FCF positive. Beyond the ~$13.6bn in total liquidity and expected capital, we will evaluate additional capital pathways for future expansion opportunistically.** **Q: R2 order trends? Conversion vs. prior launches?** A (RJ Scaringe): Deliveries are still early; the key signal is reception. Across auto journalists, lifestyle media and customers who have driven the car, feedback has been overwhelmingly positive on content, packaging and value.I daily-drive the R2 and am very happy; one reviewer even called it 'possibly the best car ever'. **Q: Will the Gen 3 sensor suite be available on R2 this year?** A (RJ Scaringe): Yes — **the Gen 3 autonomy hardware includes the in-house RAP1 inference platform (800 TOPS per chip, two per vehicle, ~4x vs. NVIDIA), LiDAR and other perception-stack upgrades.** **Q: Autonomy Plus monetization progress? Contribution to ~60% growth in Software & Services this year?** A (RJ Scaringe): Paid Autonomy Plus launched with a take rate above our model. Capabilities will expand materially this year, with **point-to-point a key unlock that 'gives time back' to customers.**We are bullish on long-term consumer autonomy monetization (hands-off → eyes-off → personal L4) as a core value driver, but we will not break out its share within Software & Services growth. **Q: Has R1 demand improved with higher gasoline prices? You previously expected YoY declines — is that still the case?** A (RJ Scaringe): R1 enthusiasm remains strong — it is among segment leaders in the high-end category, and in several states it leads not only high-end EV SUVs but also high-end SUVs overall. The impact of fuel prices is hard to call; we do see a higher mix of ICE and low-efficiency cars in trade-ins, but durability of high prices is uncertain. **Q: Autonomy customer penetration — subscription vs. one-time purchase preferences?** A (RJ Scaringe): Autonomy will be extremely important for customers over the next five years, and we expect rapid adoption of Autonomy Plus with penetration rising as capabilities expand. From a societal view, Level 2 is just an appetizer — once customers experience eyes-off and truly 'get time back' without constant nags, stickiness is high.Even indirect exposure (e.g., a friend’s car) becomes a key purchase factor. We believe the next five years will look nothing like the last five in autonomy progress; by 2030/31, autonomy will be a core purchase criterion as consumers want to read, scroll or rest. **Q: Full-year delivery guide unchanged — how should we think about the mix of R2, R1 and EDV?** A (Claire McDonough): **Within 62,000–67,000 total deliveries, R1 plus commercial are expected to be roughly flat vs. 2025 actuals, with the incremental growth from R2 launch and ramp.The Q2 guide of 9,000–11,000 also implies a back-half weighted R2 cadence.** **Q: What KPIs govern robotaxi deployment — e.g., disengagements or miles between interventions?** A (RJ Scaringe): There are multiple milestones on the path to 2028, some tied to Uber capital unlocks. **First is supervised testing with safety operators in SF and Miami in H2 this year; further milestones lead to fully driverless ops in 2028.**Over time, there will be more observable proof points on public roads, including both test vehicles and deployed fleets. **Q: Media reports suggest licensing to other OEMs — any progress this year?** A (RJ Scaringe): Two core technology areas will drive share over the coming years:- First, E/E architecture — the industry must move from distributed ECUs (50–150 small compute islands per car, hard to update and integrate) to centralized zonal architecture plus a unified OS. Rivian’s current stack is exactly that and underpins our Volkswagen Group partnership; the first external deployment is the ID.1 (Europe, priced slightly above €20k equivalent). When customers tear down ID.1, the elegance of the network and compute stack will stand out, serving as proof of scalability across multiple brands, price points and form factors.- Second, autonomy — an integrated solution spanning hardware (RAP1 inference + compute), perception (cameras, radar, LiDAR) and software (LDM), with high portability across models. Internally we are deploying across R1T, R1S, R2, commercial vans and robotaxi. **Q: Is the Uber agreement exclusive? Beyond that model, how else will you approach robotaxi?** A (RJ Scaringe): Setting technology aside, Level 4 capability must be equivalent across robotaxi and personal ownership scenarios — personal L4 cannot underperform robotaxi in similarly complex conditions. Commercially, Uber brings fleet density; going it alone would require building a large enough fleet for short ETA.Uber’s scale and matching make it an ideal partner for R2 robotaxi, while the same stack will serve personal L4. L4 will enable many new biz. models between pure ownership and pure mobility-as-a-service, including shared models across families, communities, or buildings; most 'trillion-mile' travel today is personal, with robotaxi a subset. **Q: What are the milestones for the four Uber tranches (remaining $950mn, including $250mn this year)?** A (Claire McDonough): **This year’s $250mn unlocks with supervised testing in SF and Miami in H2. The remaining $700mn steps up with multiple fully deployed cities by 2028 and full unlock at 25 cities by 2031.** **Q: How much will R2 launch weigh on auto GPM in Q2/Q3?** A (Claire McDonough): **Q2–Q3 will absorb: (1) R2 depreciation starting; (2) new manufacturing teams onboarding; and (3) early low-volume, single-shift complexity.** Hence, auto GPM will be pressured in Q2–Q3, with Q4 reflecting improved R2 unit economics and fixed-cost leverage across R1 and EDV.**We still expect both R2 and consolidated auto GM to be positive exiting FY26 — the base for a full R2 ramp at Normal in 2027.** **Risk disclosure and statement:**[**Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure**](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### Related Stocks - [RIVN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RIVN.US.md) - [VWAGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VWAGY.US.md) - [VWAPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VWAPY.US.md) - [UBER.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UBER.US.md)