--- title: "Learn from history to enhance your understanding, review it daily" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40369056.md" description: "This is for my own eyes, to help me stay confident and hold on to long-termism. $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Vertiv(VRT.US) $AXT(AXTI.US) 1. Learning from History: The "Infrastructure Law" of Every Tech Wave Looking back over the past 30 years, the capital flows of all disruptive technological waves have followed the same iron law: infrastructure precedes widespread adoption. Those selling the shovels always make the first fortune..." datetime: "2026-05-02T02:01:32.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40369056.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40369056.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40369056.md) author: "[旺旺勇闯美股](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/17573975.md)" --- # Learn from history to enhance your understanding, review it daily This is for my own eyes, to help me stay confident and hold on to long-termism. $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Vertiv(VRT.US) $AXT(AXTI.US) I. Learning from History: The "Infrastructure Law" of Every Tech Wave Looking back over the past 30 years, the capital flow of all disruptive technology waves has followed the same iron law: Before applications become widespread, infrastructure must come first. The shovel sellers always make the first pot of gold, and the valuation premium will last throughout the entire "capacity ramp-up period". Wave Stage Representative Years PC/Internet Infrastructure Period 1993-2000 Mobile Internet Infrastructure Period 2007-2015 AI Smart Infrastructure Period 2023-2028+ History repeatedly proves: during the infrastructure explosion phase, "expensive" is the norm, while "cheap" is actually a signal of logical falsification. The market is always pricing future demand with past profits, and the real main upward wave precisely occurs in the 18-36 months where "valuations seem like a bubble, but performance is delivered at a 50%+ CAGR". 🌍 II. The Space for AI Infrastructure: Where Exactly Are We Standing? You mentioned an extremely crucial perspective: "The current supply and demand we see is only the demand from already-transformed industries; the infrastructure demand from untransformed industries has just begun to awaken." This is precisely the biggest difference between AI and the internet/mobile internet: 1. Penetration rate is still in single digits: Global enterprise AI adoption rate <10%, the AI adoption rate in traditional manufacturing, healthcare, energy, logistics, agriculture, and finance is generally <5%. This means 90% of the computing power/storage/network/electricity demand is still on the way. 2. From "Training" to "Inference" to "Edge": - Stage 1 (Now): Cloud-based large model training → consumes HBM + optical interconnect + liquid cooling + gigawatt power grids - Stage 2 (2026-2028): Enterprise-level inference + Agent workflows → consumes enterprise SSDs (SNDK) + memory expansion (MU) + proprietary networks (LITE/AXTI) - Stage 3 (2028+): Edge AI + robots + autonomous driving → consumes edge computing chips + low-power optical communication + distributed microgrids The switch between each stage is not a replacement, but an addition. Infrastructure demand is exponentially additive. 3. Capacity Barrier = Pricing Power = Profit Accelerator: - HBM capacity is limited by CoWoS and yield rates → Micron/SK Hynix continue to raise prices by 15-20% - 1.6T/3.2T optical modules are limited by InP substrates (AXTI/LITE) → supply falls short of demand, ASP remains firm - Data center power/cooling is limited by transformer/liquid cooling chains (VRT/BE/ETN) → orders are backlogged to 2029, gross margins structurally shift upward This is not a cycle; this is a structural shortage. As long as the shortage exists, the valuation premium will not disappear; it will only be quickly digested by earnings growth. 📈 III. The Reconstruction of Valuation Logic: Looking Forward 1-2 Years The method you mentioned, "forecasting future space based on earnings report growth rates," is the core method for institutional pricing. Let's now use this perspective to remap our holdings: Target Current Market Valuation (Static) MU PE ~18x LITE PE ~40x SNDK PE ~50x (cycle peak) AXTI PS ~8x VRT PE ~90x Core Conclusion: If you look at today's profits, they are all "expensive"; but if you look at 2027 profits, their current prices are only "reasonable". The valuation of AI infrastructure stocks has never been "killed" down; it has been caught up by "earnings". Every earnings season's Beat & Raise will cause the static P/E ratio to collapse instantly, and then the stock price will start a new round of upward movement. This is the compound interest code of trend trading. ### Related Stocks - [SNDK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNDK.US.md) - [LITE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LITE.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [SSD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSD.US.md) - [HBM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HBM.US.md) - [VRT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VRT.US.md) - [AXTI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AXTI.US.md) - [07709.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07709.HK.md) - [ETN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETN.US.md)