--- title: "UBER: In-line; Robotaxi Risk Lingers" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40489822.md" description: "The 'global Didi' $Uber Tech(UBER.US) reported its first quarterly results of 2026 in the US pre-market on May 6. The quarter was solid, with gross bookings and Adj. EBITDA both beating estimates. Growth momentum and margin expansion remained strong.The company also guided next-quarter gross bookings and adjusted profit above consensus. With the stock having pulled back sharply on perceived autonomous-driving threats, this solid print deserves credit..." datetime: "2026-05-06T17:49:12.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40489822.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40489822.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40489822.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)" --- # UBER: In-line; Robotaxi Risk Lingers The 'international DiDi' $Uber Tech(UBER.US) posted its Q1 2026 results pre-mkt on May 6. Overall, the quarter was solid as both gross bookings and adj. EBITDA beat, with momentum intact in growth and margins. At the same time, guidance for next quarter on bookings and adj. profit also came in above expectations. With the stock having sold off on autonomous driving concerns, the strong print deserves credit; key takeaways below: **1) Stable volumes, higher pricing**: Core businesses (Mobility + Delivery) saw gross bookings up 26% YoY, accelerating from 23% last quarter and beating the Street. Trips rose 20% YoY, a slight decel vs. 22% last quarter, while ASPs climbed nearly 5%, driving the step-up in bookings growth. FX tailwinds also helped. **2) Mobility robust; Delivery growth eased from highs**: Mobility gross bookings grew 25% YoY, or 20% ex-FX, a 1ppt QoQ acceleration. Management’s barbell strategy (pushing both premium and value products) and a willingness to share economics (fuel subsidies, passing through lower insurance) are key drivers. Delivery gross bookings rose 28% YoY, or 23% ex-FX, a 3ppt QoQ decel. Given Q4 marked a multi-year peak, a mild slowdown is not a concern. **3) Mobility monetization down, Delivery monetization up**: Mobility revenue grew just 5% YoY, or 1% ex-FX, a sharp step-down. The blended take rate (revenue/bookings) fell from ~30% to ~26%. The main reason was higher oil prices amid Middle East tensions, prompting the company to provide fuel subsidies to drivers that were recorded as contra-revenue. Back-of-the-envelope, total fuel subsidies were around $1bn this quarter. By contrast, Delivery revenue growth was 28% ex-FX, only a 1ppt QoQ decel, better than the 3ppt decel in bookings. This implies stronger monetization QoQ. Delivery revenue take rate reached 19.5%, up 96bps YoY, the largest single-quarter increase since 2023. This was likely driven by higher ad monetization. **4) Core margins kept improving**: Adj. EBITDA was $2.48bn (+33% YoY). Margin vs. bookings was 4.6%, up 26bps YoY despite fuel subsidies, though the pace of improvement narrowed. From this quarter, the primary profit metric shifted to adj. operating profit, as the company de-emphasizes heavy adjustments with the business more mature. Mobility adj. OPM was 7.7%, up 0.2ppt YoY, suggesting insurance savings outweighed fuel subsidy drag. Delivery adj. OPM improved to 3.7% from 3.3% a year ago, a larger uplift. This aligns with the quarter’s higher Delivery monetization. Both core segments are expanding margins, while the consolidated margin was flattish QoQ due to mix. A rising contribution from the lower-margin Delivery business weighed on the aggregate. **5) Lower insurance costs reinvested into growth**: GPM reached 45%, up ~5ppt YoY and well above expectations. Despite Mobility monetization pressure from fuel subsidies, GPM still expanded, driven by higher Delivery take rates and notably lower insurance costs. However, total opex rose 19% YoY, with all expense lines accelerating. As guided, the company is in a reinvestment phase, redeploying part of the would-be profits to sustain growth and help counter autonomous competition. **Dolphin Research View:** **1) Solid quarter, constructive guidance** Results skew positive. Even ex-FX, both Mobility and Delivery bookings grew at a high pace with no clear slowdown, and Mobility margins still improved despite an estimated ~$1bn in fuel subsidies; Delivery saw multi-quarter highs in monetization and margins. In short, growth remains strong. Margins still have room to expand. The company guides next-quarter gross bookings of $56.25bn–$57.8bn, with the low end in line with consensus, implying 18%–22% growth at constant currency. The high end suggests a slight acceleration vs. this quarter’s 21%. Adj. EBITDA is guided to $2.7bn–$2.8bn, with the low end above the $2.65bn Street. At the midpoint, implied margin is 4.8% vs. 4.5% a year ago, indicating further expansion. In other words, the favorable momentum should continue. It may even improve next quarter. **2) Recent moves — back to expansion mode** **a. Mobility:** Strategy remains the barbell approach, pushing both premium tiers for profits and value tiers to penetrate lower-tier cities/suburbs and gain share. The company is also passing through lower insurance costs to users to reduce effective ride costs and stimulate volumes. Net-net, Mobility in 2026 focuses on protecting profitability while prioritizing market share. **b. Delivery:** In mature markets such as the US, the focus is on ad monetization and scale efficiencies, with cross-sell still under-penetrated as ~30% of Mobility users have never used Eats. In newer markets, UBER plans a more aggressive push against DoorDash, entering seven European countries where Dash already operates. This share grab may weigh on near-term margins, keeping Delivery in an invest-for-growth stance. **c. GO-GET diversification:** UBER aims to evolve from rides + delivery into a broader super app entry point. It is partnering with Expedia to offer hotel booking to UBER users and earn referral revenue. The next goal is to leverage an AI agent to become an all-in-one assistant for rides, food, and hotels. **3) What has changed in the Robotaxi thesis?** Beyond near-term prints, the key long-term question is Robotaxi and how much threat it poses to UBER. The debate remains whether the endgame is an oligopoly or a multi-player market. UBER clearly assumes the latter, expecting many Robotaxi manufacturers/providers and positioning itself as a key partner. Recently it signed partnerships with Amazon’s Zoox and Nvidia to co-launch Robotaxi services. Meanwhile, potential oligopolists Waymo and Tesla are progressing. Waymo’s weekly trips have reached ~500k, with a target of ~1mn by end-2026; the absolute base is small but ramping fast. It is still hard to call the endgame, and thus the eventual impact on UBER. Even in a bearish scenario, the effect before 2027 is unlikely to materially show up in UBER’s P&L. **4)** On valuation, on Dolphin’s updated estimates, post-print market cap implies ~15–16x 2027 GAAP net income (unadjusted), suggesting the stock is not richly priced. The market is assigning a modest multiple. In other words, with limited visibility beyond 2027, investors are applying a conservative valuation as risk compensation, even as current growth and profit release are robust. That keeps headline multiples muted. Tactically, until mid-2027 or until the AV endgame becomes clearer, UBER looks like a swing trading opportunity. If Waymo or Tesla make major breakthroughs, avoid UBER; if third-party players close the tech gap materially, that would be a positive for UBER. Absent major AV headlines, as seen from Q4 to this Q1, fundamentals should dominate. If valuation stays reasonable, UBER’s pre-2027 earnings trajectory supports swing opportunities. **Key charts from this quarter:** **I. Core biz. growth remains strong** Both core businesses continued to post solid underlying growth, with nominal growth boosted by FX. Mobility gross bookings rose 25% YoY, or 20% ex-FX, a 1ppt QoQ acceleration. Delivery gross bookings rose 28% YoY. Ex-FX, growth was 23%, a 3ppt QoQ decel from a peak in Q4 2025, still a healthy pace. Combined, core gross bookings grew 26% YoY vs. 23% last quarter. Orders rose 20% YoY vs. 22% in Q4, while average order value was up 5% YoY vs. 0.7% last quarter, the main driver. FX and higher oil likely contributed. Under the hood, the 20% order growth was driven by MAUs up 17% YoY and average order frequency up 2.5%. Frequency growth continues to slow, making new-user acquisition the main volume driver. Drivers likely include Delivery’s expansion into non-restaurant categories, Mobility’s value push into lower-tier markets and product penetration, and Robotaxi bringing in new users. Management noted that after launching AV rides in Austin and Atlanta, first-time user growth accelerated by 9ppt. The company also disclosed Uber One members reached 50mn, about 25% of total MAUs. **II. Fuel subsidies weigh on Mobility revenue; Delivery take rate climbs** Mobility revenue grew 5% YoY, or 1% ex-FX, a sharp decel vs. bookings. The take rate fell to ~26% from ~30%. With oil up amid Middle East tensions, UBER and peers provided fuel subsidies to drivers, recorded as contra-revenue. Rough estimates put fuel subsidies at about $1bn, broadly in line with sell-side models. Delivery revenue rose 34% YoY, or 28% ex-FX, a modest 1ppt QoQ decel compared with a 3ppt decel in bookings. As a result, Delivery revenue take rate reached 19.5%, up 96bps YoY, the biggest quarterly gain since 2023. Dolphin Research believes higher ad monetization remained the key driver of the take-rate uplift. Uber Freight revenue was about $1.34bn, returning to clear positive growth for the first time in two years, but remains small in mix. Total revenue came in at ~$13.2bn, with YoY growth slowing to 14.5% due to fuel subsidy accounting, slightly below expectations. **III. Lower insurance costs lift GPM; opex reinvested** Adj. EBITDA reached $2.48bn (+33% YoY), sustaining strong growth. Margin vs. bookings was 4.6%, up 26bps YoY despite fuel subsidies, though gains narrowed. Starting in 2026, the primary metric shifted from adj. EBITDA to adj. operating profit to reflect maturity and fewer adjustments. 1) Mobility adj. OPM was 7.7%, up 0.2ppt YoY, indicating insurance savings more than offset fuel subsidies. As fuel effects fade, the company has room to redeploy insurance savings to drive growth. 2) Delivery adj. OPM improved to 3.7% from 3.3% a year ago, a larger increase. With monetization higher this quarter, a clear margin uplift is not surprising, likely still aided by ads. Putting it together, both core segments’ margins are moving up, while consolidated margins were flat QoQ due to mix. The larger Delivery share weighed on overall margins. On costs, GPM reached 45%, up ~5ppt YoY and well above the Street. Despite lower Mobility monetization from fuel subsidies, GPM expanded, primarily thanks to lower insurance costs, with Delivery take-rate gains also helping. Total opex rose 19% YoY, with all lines accelerating. Sales & marketing, R&D, and G&A each grew 20%+, and operations rose 16%. This suggests the company recycled insurance savings via fuel subsidies and higher opex to sustain growth and address the Robotaxi threat. **Past UBER research by Dolphin:** Feb 5, 2026 Earnings Take **‘**[**UBER: Big beat, big drop? Robotaxi sword still hangs**](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38465027)**’** Feb 5, 2026 Call Notes [**UBER (Trans): Why 3P wins in Robotaxi**](https://longbridge.com/enn/topics/38468310) Nov 5, 2025 Earnings Take **‘**[**UBER: Clean print, spooked again by Robotaxi?**](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/35991445)**’** Nov 5, 2025 Call Notes **‘**[**UBER (Trans): Deliberately slowing margin gains; AV far from profitability**](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36003392)**’** Aug 7, 2025 Earnings Take **‘**[**Rides softer, Delivery stronger — UBER at another crossroads?**](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/32695139)**’** Aug 7, 2025 Call Notes [**UBER (Trans): Robotaxi profitability is far off; 50% cash back to shareholders**](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/32695590) May 8, 2025 Earnings Take **‘**[**Against the wind, UBER’s execution remains strong**](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/29416919)**’** May 8, 2025 Call Notes [**UBER (Trans): Do not expect rides growth to slow in 2H**](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/29420729) Feb 6, 2025 Earnings Take **‘**[**UBER: FSD jitters; small violations, heavy penalties**](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/26995870)**’** Feb 6, 2025 Call Notes **‘**[**UBER (Trans): AV share small within five years**](https://longbridgeapp.cn/en/topics/27006468)**’** **Risk disclosure and disclaimer:** [**Dolphin Research Disclaimer & General Disclosure**](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### Related Stocks - [UBER.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UBER.US.md) - [DIDIY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIDIY.US.md)