--- title: "美股实盘：牛熊分界线，整点鬼故事（20260517）" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40853216.md" description: "综述：本周标普 500 指数 上涨 0.13%，我的实盘净值 下跌 3.53%。2026 年内标普 500 指数 上涨 8.22%，2026 年内我的实盘净值 上涨 78.46%（年初净值为 2.20，本周净值 3.92）。交易：无持仓：NVDA 12.9%，SNDK 30.2%，MRVL 13.0%，GLW 7.9%，NEM 14.6%，SBSW 6.7%，现金/美债 14.7%。有四舍五入..." datetime: "2026-05-17T07:13:54.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40853216.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40853216.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40853216.md) author: "[京城Z先生](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/9198235.md)" --- # 美股实盘：牛熊分界线，整点鬼故事（20260517） **综述：** 本周标普 500 指数 上涨 0.13%，我的实盘净值 下跌 3.53%。 2026 年内标普 500 指数 上涨 8.22%，2026 年内我的实盘净值 上涨 78.46%（年初净值为 2.20，本周净值 3.92）。 ![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/9eafcbb37fb791bb2ecab06273159702?x-oss-process=style/lg) **交易：** 无 **持仓：** NVDA 12.9%，SNDK 30.2%，MRVL 13.0%，GLW 7.9%，NEM 14.6%，SBSW 6.7%，现金/美债 14.7%。 有四舍五入，且一般不记录低于 1% 的迷你仓和短线投机操作。 **复盘：** 本周大幅跑输了指数，其实也没什么公司基本面的重大利空，无非就是闪迪这些热门股前面涨太猛了，叠加特师傅从中国走的时候又和郎子互呛，说了些不利于世界和谐的话，美国国债利率又到了牛熊分界线，利率敏感的科技赛道回调而已。 由于目前仓位已经很高，配置也比较满意，都不太适合加仓，就继续躺平了。 \--- **个股方面，** 1、科技：NVDA/GOOG 随着汤姆克鲁勋在最后一刻扒飞机成功，成功与特师傅会师中国，并狂炫我小时候经常吃的方砖厂炸酱面，股价随即连续大涨，再创历史新高。 不枉我拿了大半年的煎熬岁月，那阵子天天在 180 块上下摩擦，蛰伏这么久终于支棱起来了，舒服了。 其实黄教主来中国这事本身，对英伟达的利润影响非常有限，但不重要，市场选择相信它后市继续看涨，这就够了。 2、存储：SNDK/MU 新的鬼故事来了：CBRS 的上市，带来了所谓的 “新技术”，能大幅降低未来存储板块的需求，也就不需要那么多存储芯片了。 先不管这技术是 10 年还是 100 年后实现，但存储这样天天涨大家都受不了啊，借着这个理由跌一跌是非常好的，做空和做多的都能睡个踏实觉。 上周把本金都拿出来换康宁了，留着这几倍的利润自己跑吧，我暂时没有继续减仓的想法。 3、金属：GLD/NEM/SBSW 周五黄金价格跌至逾一周低点，白银价格大幅下跌每盎司 80 美元关口。 美国 10 年期国债收益率与美元双双走强，而中东冲突升级引发的通胀担忧则强化了市场对更高利率的预期，进一步打压了贵金属价格。 看沃什吧，我认为最大概率还是会降息的，别跟我说什么通胀会影响降息，只要领导需要，我们可以重新定义什么叫通胀的。 乐观预期 6 月降息，中性预期 9 月降息，金属板块属于以年为周期的大逻辑，要么熬要么走，别问，问就是割。 4、光通信：LITE/MRVL/GLW 虽然周五整个板块都被带下来了，但是周内总净值基本都是涨的，也还行吧，高波动板块，只适合真的懂行业的人，前几天在公号分享了个新的 ETF，代码 EUV，如果你实在没有研究，可以去看看它怎么样。 Q1 业绩都出了，Q2 还早，这时候是真空期，大家又到了互道傻瓜的环节，为自己的认知埋伏某个公司就好，不要因为我买了什么就无脑冲，我经常买错的。 5、下周计划 黄金板块我觉得跌挺多的，到了短期关键支撑位，有点想偷一把 GDXU。 \--- 最后，估值表： ![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/f4bbb9febc9e18c057786464a76a231b?x-oss-process=style/lg) **注释（请一定阅读）：** 1、上图的点位均为本人通过特定的方式计算，不代表一定能精确且能触达，只是辅助参考作用。 2、一个点位有 2 个值，则代表该区间的上下限，用哪个取决于本人的主观意愿和对公司的了解程度。 3、标蓝标红都是为了给自己警示，该股票到达买入/卖出区域附近，需要重点关注，但不代表我一定会执行。 4、表格内相关数字，会随我个人对公司基本面的动态评估，不定期调整，请勿作为长期参考。 5、以上表格内容均为本人实盘记录，是做给我自己看的，无法指导你们的交易，问就是别买/赶紧割。 $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Corgi Lithography & Smcndctr Phtncs ETF(EUV.US) $Corning(GLW.US) $Newmont(NEM.US) $Microsectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU.US)  $Sibanye Stillwater(SBSW.US) ### Related Stocks - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [NEM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NEM.US.md) - [GDXU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXU.US.md) - [SNDK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNDK.US.md) - [MRVL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MRVL.US.md) - [GLW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLW.US.md) - [SBSW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SBSW.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [LITE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LITE.US.md) - [EUV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EUV.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [NVDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md) - [GGLS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GGLS.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) ## Comments (35) - **bugsneo · 2026-06-17T00:22:20.000Z**: gdxu kept adding to the position from 220 all the way down to 88, now the average cost is 120😅 - **雞腿堡騎士 · 2026-05-19T09:31:42.000Z**: Must-watch every week - **Amy-MP20250808 · 2026-05-19T08:26:13.000Z**: MU cleared - **好公司好价格趋势为王 · 2026-05-18T14:34:07.000Z**: Text is more attractive - **一夜暴富888 · 2026-05-18T12:45:55.000Z**: Is Lite beyond saving, it keeps falling 😭 - **京城Z先生** (2026-05-18T13:07:25.000Z): 🈹 - **超级松鸡** (2026-05-18T13:16:19.000Z): A 5% return, why are you even asking this kind of question! - **一夜暴富888** (2026-05-18T13:29:08.000Z): Because I'm just copying the homework 😭 - **小雨下不停 · 2026-05-18T04:03:43.000Z**: Sitting and waiting for GDXU holdings to appear in the table - **唐先森 · 2026-05-18T00:41:45.000Z**: Which is more worth investing in, Hong Kong stocks or US stocks? I just entered the market and heavily invested in Xiaomi, got trapped immediately, and ended up having to cut my losses. My unit even organized a visit to Xiaomi's factory, and it felt like it should have good development prospects. - **小陈发发** (2026-05-18T14:41:23.000Z): It's definitely US stocks, Xiaomi can't compare - **光辉万丈 · 2026-05-17T11:37:38.000Z**: Please, Mr. Z, send over a picture of you lying flat, so we can follow suit and all lie flat together. - **京城Z先生** (2026-05-17T12:43:20.000Z): Just like Ge You 😄 - **股魔大霍 · 2026-05-17T10:50:51.000Z**: Copying homework, it's more comfortable to crash together with Z than to crash alone 🤡🤪🤪 - **京城Z先生** (2026-05-17T10:57:37.000Z): Besides sbsw, I haven't crashed in US stocks this year. Hope I'm doing well🌚 - **股魔大霍** (2026-05-17T11:09:44.000Z): Just kidding, I'd only get in your car if I believed you🤪🤪 - **好公司好价格趋势为王** (2026-05-18T14:36:51.000Z): sbsw will rise sooner or later - **黄雀 · 2026-05-17T08:49:34.000Z · 👍 4**: We just want to ask, when are you going to start live streaming again? - **京城Z先生** (2026-05-17T08:52:10.000Z): Let it be, I prefer writing text😉 - **跟顾神反着买** (2026-05-17T09:47:57.000Z): It's hard to find the right live stream. - **asdf nevermind** (2026-05-17T10:58:15.000Z): Seconded! - **Usagi888 · 2026-05-17T08:25:03.000Z · 👍 1**: Before the earnings report, I'm thinking of continuing to average down on Captain Marvel 😂 - **得鹿为鱼 · 2026-05-17T08:24:27.000Z**: Understood the social media updates from the 'King of Understanding'. Focused on fixing the garden these past two days, planning how to fix the Lincoln Memorial and the Washington Monument. There's not a hint of U.S. bond yields reflected. Let's see the situation next week, take profits on tech stoc - **京城Z先生** (2026-05-17T08:40:00.000Z): Maybe it's the weekend, the person in charge of the relevant department hasn't talked to him yet😅 - **得鹿为鱼** (2026-05-17T08:41:39.000Z): Haha, looks like a trip to Beijing hurt your self-esteem, and you're back to indulge in pleasure with great effort. This is no different from the Empress Dowager Cixi during the First Sino-Japanese Wa - **得鹿为鱼** (2026-05-17T08:57:35.000Z): Trump knows how to live - **幸运币 · 2026-05-17T08:23:38.000Z · 👍 1**: That square brick factory is really mediocre. - **京城Z先生** (2026-05-17T08:38:59.000Z): It tasted pretty good when I was a kid. - **幸运币** (2026-05-17T09:04:34.000Z): Not possible now, but home is still NO.1 - **墨晓 · 2026-05-17T07:47:15.000Z**: Keep up - **光辉万丈 · 2026-05-17T07:22:32.000Z**: Get your little stools and little chairs ready! Watch the Z News Broadcast