---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40902349.md"
description: "Recently analyzed the historical data of MSTR. If we purely look at the mNAV corresponding to Market Cap, during non-crypto bull market periods, MSTR's premium has maintained an mNAV between 0.8 and 1.2 for an extended time (Figure 1). Here, the mNAV corresponding to Market Cap refers purely to the market capitalization of DAT, excluding the valuation of financing instruments like convertible bonds and STRC. Currently, the 1.2 mNAV on MSTR's official website dashboard includes the mNAV corresponding to the EV of all the above. In other words, if we only look at DAT's core business, the non-bull market average of market-cap mNAV is 0.8-1.2. A higher premium requires additional value-added EV to drive it. For MSTR, that means financing toolkits like STRC.Similarly, for BMNR, due to its single financing instrument and its derivative businesses (staking, moonshot) not yet generating substantial scaled revenue, Market Cap is approximately equal to EV. The mNAV corresponding to Market Cap fell below 1 in December '25 and has fluctuated between 0.9 and 1 for a period of 5 months (Figure 2), which is also a kind of normal average. I believe this is not an undervaluation, but rather the market's valuation level for DAT during a non-crypto bull market cycle. For BMNR to achieve a higher premium, assets like MAVAN, staking infrastructure, and moonshot investments must transition from narratives into trackable EV, which would then drive the premium above 1.2.Of course, the above analysis is based on non-crypto bull market sentiment. If BTC/ETH both break new highs, FOMO sentiment could drive DAT's premium even higher (e.g., MSTR's peak could reach 3+), but this is unpredictable in the short term and thus not within the analytical framework.$Strategy(MSTR.US)$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)"
datetime: "2026-05-19T07:56:44.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/40902349.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/40902349.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/40902349.md)
author: "[lyhalfway](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/3372973.md)"
---

# Recently analyzed the historical data of MSTR. If …


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## Comments (31)

- **是娜娜子姐姐 · 2026-05-20T06:41:10.000Z**: bmnr has already blown up
- **Bullish · 2026-05-20T04:16:48.000Z**: If BTC falls below 76,000, then it's off to 72,000...
- **Lemon路 · 2026-05-19T13:51:28.000Z · 👍 2**: Just watch the performance of Tom Lee's team next. MSTR is hoarding coins without a cap, and the strategy after BMNR reaches 5% is still unclear. Although both are cryptocurrencies, their attributes are not exactly the same. Bitcoin leans more towards "digital gold" and strong consensus asse
- **暴躁老程゛ · 2026-05-19T12:57:24.000Z**: Uncle Yaren is too complicated, could you please elaborate on what price is suitable to enter MSTX this round? 🥹
  - **lyhalfway** (2026-05-19T13:04:14.000Z): If BTC doesn't break below 76k, you can dollar-cost average on dips.
  - **暴躁老程゛** (2026-05-19T13:26:48.000Z): Missed the sweet spot at 29.5 last night 😭
- **FakePhoenix · 2026-05-19T08:57:50.000Z · 👍 2**: MSTR is essentially a call option with a strike around 77k. As long as BTC is above 78k, it will have a positive effect. The fundamental reason why BMNR and MNAV can't rise is that Tom Lee's average price is too high... deep OTM.
  - **FakePhoenix** (2026-05-19T08:59:40.000Z): At the worst time of the year, I calculated the dividend of strc and the required increase of btc. It was essentially betting that btc would rise by more than about 3% annually (which in practice was 
  - **lyhalfway** (2026-05-19T08:59:42.000Z): If calculated this way, then ETH needs to reach 3.5k for BMNR to be considered out of the water.
  - **FakePhoenix** (2026-05-19T09:00:21.000Z): Yes, bmnr mstr is actually a financial instrument for institutional investment in the crypto space.
- **SSerpens · 2026-05-19T08:48:12.000Z**: The crypto community's attention is all on BTC/ETH, has no one noticed hype rising against the market trend💪?
  - **lyhalfway** (2026-05-19T08:49:32.000Z): This is a very handsome guy recently.
  - **SSerpens** (2026-05-19T08:50:44.000Z): The bull market hype will only perform better.
- **贾琦光 · 2026-05-19T08:32:54.000Z**: The price fluctuated between 6.4 and 7.3 this week, not a good time to enter.
- **顺心财来 · 2026-05-19T08:03:47.000Z · 👍 2**: Wait for the notification from Brother before buying
- **寄 · 2026-05-19T08:02:11.000Z · 👍 2**: MSTR has too many dividends.
  - **lyhalfway** (2026-05-19T08:04:26.000Z): STRC has a higher dividend payout. This product has alleviated MSTR's financing pressure and expanded the financing TAM to the fixed-income market, attracting incremental capital. However, the risk is
- **戒急戒燥修心 · 2026-05-19T08:00:44.000Z · 👍 1**: Can't understand crypto stocks, can't figure out how to play them either.
  - **lyhalfway** (2026-05-19T08:16:41.000Z): Not touching it is quite good, it's very grinding.
  - **不能停** (2026-05-19T12:45:00.000Z): What should I do now that it has been cut in half?
  - **lyhalfway** (2026-05-19T13:08:10.000Z): There's no need to cut losses now, just have to tough it out slowly.