--- title: "MNSO (Trans): Expects high-teens YoY revenue growth in 2026" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41109349.md" description: "Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of MINISO's FY26 Q1 earnings call. For our take on the results, see 'MINISO: AI investment in overdrive, but growth still paid for'." datetime: "2026-05-26T13:44:08.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41109349.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/41109349.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/41109349.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)" --- # MNSO (Trans): Expects high-teens YoY revenue growth in 2026 **I. Earnings Highlights Recap** 1\. **Shareholder Returns**: In May, the company paid out over $160mn in dividends, bringing cumulative shareholder returns to RMB 6.23bn. Yu Guofu announced an increase-in-stake plan in late Apr., and the company plans share repurchases subject to market conditions. Management believes the current share price is well below intrinsic value.$Miniso(MNSO.US)$MNSO(09896.HK) 2\. **Outlook**: For 2026, revenue is guided to grow in the high teens to low 20s, with a three-year CAGR of at least 22%. Net new stores for the year are guided at 450–500 (subject to quality-based adjustments), and ex-FX gains/losses, Adj. net profit growth is set to accelerate vs. 2025.For 1H, revenue growth is guided at 20%–22% with 210–230 net new stores. Same-store sales in Mainland China are guided to grow in the low single digits, while North America is expected to see high single-digit to low double-digit SSS growth. 3\. **Key Financials**: Q1 total revenue was RMB 5.7bn (+28.5% YoY), with GMV at RMB 10.1bn (+26% YoY). Adj. OP (ex-FX) reached RMB 840mn (+40.3% YoY).GPM contracted 90bps YoY, total Opex ratio (ex-SBC) rose 120bps YoY, and Adj. OPM declined by approx. 180bps YoY. 4\. **Non-Operating Items**: Fair value gains from an AI investment totaled RMB 870mn (excluded from Adj. profit). Q1 net FX loss was approx. RMB 30mn.Interest on convertible bonds was RMB 50.4mn (RMB 45.7mn non-cash; cash interest only RMB 4.7mn). The 29.4% stake in Yonghui Superstores recognized investment income of approx. RMB 77mn, and the effective tax rate was 24.9% (vs. 20% a year ago). 5\. **Operating Efficiency & Cash**: Cash at quarter-end stood at RMB 7.5bn. Mainland China inventory turnover was 67 days (vs. 83 days last year, a marked improvement).Overseas inventory turnover was 254 days (vs. 208 days last year) due to pre-stocking for new stores and higher safety stock. **II. Earnings Call Details** **2.1 Management Commentary** 1\. **Mainland China Biz.** a. MINISO Mainland China revenue was RMB 3.2bn (+29.6% YoY), the fastest pace in the past nine quarters. Growth has accelerated for five straight quarters since Q4 2025. b. SSS grew in the high single digits. Member sales penetration rose from 60% to 73%. c. About 80 stores were refurbished in Q1, with post-refresh daily sales up 50%+. The company plans to refurbish 300+ stores in 2026. d. AI capabilities will be combined with member data to power demand forecasting, precision marketing, and channel iteration, supporting SSS growth. 2\. **Overseas Biz.** a. MINISO overseas revenue reached RMB 1.94bn (+22% YoY), with SSS (including distributors) up in the low single digits. b. Europe and LatAm both delivered positive SSS, a trend expected to continue into Q2. c. Revenue from self-operated stores rose ~50% YoY while related expenses increased ~35%. Store-level economics continue to improve. 3\. **TOP TOY** a. Revenue was RMB 510mn (+51.4% YoY), maintaining strong momentum. 4\. **Cost Structure** a. Ad & promo expenses rose 74% YoY, at 3% of revenue, driven by brand upgrades and self-owned IP marketing. b. Logistics expenses rose 43.5% YoY, stable at 1.5%–2% of revenue. c. IP royalty expenses rose 42% YoY, stable at 2.4%–2.6% of revenue. d. G&A grew slower than revenue, with operating leverage showing through. 5\. **IP & Product Strategy** a. In 1H, co-branded IP will span multiple categories, including high-value IPs, collaborations with popular celebrities, and classic lifestyle aesthetics series. b. In 2H, the company will launch marquee IPs, including a World Cup series, a Chihuahua collaboration, and a tie-up with the Toy Story movie. c. AI will enable product demand forecasting and strengthen customer loyalty. **2.2 Q&A** **Q: How is overseas demand? What is the impact of higher oil prices on distributor pricing, cost pass-through, and logistics? What are the key upside and downside risks by market over the next few quarters?** A: On product mix, we are systematically increasing the share of higher-margin categories, with self-owned IP and limited IP co-brands as key focus areas. We have also started a ‘fewer, deeper’ strategy, focusing on real blockbusters, proactively trimming long-tail SKUs, and reducing categories while deepening operations and efficiency within each.This is the most direct way to offset cost pressure. On the supply chain, we extended raw material stocking cycles for key SKUs from two months to three to four months to lock in costs early. End-to-end procurement prices remain stable, giving us ample buffer.For the U.S., we began differentiated pricing tests over the past two weeks, first raising prices on high-frequency, fast-turn items such as bottled water and T-shirts. Initial data show May GPM improved vs. Apr., and price hikes are progressing quickly, so we expect U.S. margins to stay stable or improve. Looking ahead, upside risks include successful execution of pricing, structural margin improvement, and higher self-owned IP mix. Downside risks are mainly logistics cost pressure from higher oil prices and potentially weaker consumer confidence impacting basket size.Overall, we remain very proactive on cost management. **Q: How are Apr.–May SSS and overall sales trends in Indonesia and Mexico? What are the 2026 sales and profit outlooks for these two markets?** A: Mexico is trending positively, with SSS back to growth, and LatAm overall also in positive territory. From Apr. to May, SSS improved noticeably.Strategically, we will upgrade channels. Mexico used to focus on sub-300 sqm small stores; this year we will roll out the large-store format. Large stores mean not only bigger footprints but also higher IP density and longer dwell time, which lift basket size and repeat purchase. The model has been validated in China, and we are now replicating it in Mexico.For the full year, Mexico SSS should stay positive, and benefits from channel upgrades will show through in 2H. With strong consumption power and fragmented competition in LatAm, opening the right stores and operating IP well should unlock solid potential. We will open a large number of stores in Mexico starting in 2H, and we are excited about the outlook. **Q: MINISO is outperforming peers in Mainland China. Any strategic updates? How do franchisees view the large-store format, and does the company offer financial support?** A: On store refresh, we refurbished around 80 stores in Q1, with very clear results—post-refresh daily sales rose by 50%+. We plan to refurbish 300+ stores in 2026 and will proceed in phases with a disciplined cadence.The core logic is ‘open big, close small; open strong, close weak’, transforming aging small stores into new formats through efficient refresh of visual identity, merchandising standards, and IP experience. On franchisee profitability, from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026, the share of profitable franchisees kept rising and GPM kept expanding. Large stores exhibit materially better store-level profitability than standard stores, with top performers recouping investment within six months vs. about 18 months for standard stores.In 2026, we will continue to strengthen franchisees’ conviction in the large-store model and have received a lot of positive feedback. Roughly 50% of new store applications received by HQ are for large stores, showing growing willingness to invest in large-format upgrades and validating our shift toward higher-quality single-store economics. **Q: How have foot traffic and consumption willingness changed in China during Apr.–May? What are the trends across city tiers and consumer cohorts?** A: Both average daily orders per store and basket size increased, with ATV approaching RMB 40. One key driver growing in importance is member operations, which is our most critical strategy.A high-quality, high-stickiness membership base offers more predictable growth and stronger resilience through cycles, and members spend significantly more than non-members. Over the past months, member sales penetration rose from 60% to above 70%, driven mainly by new member acquisition. In 1H we focused on acquisition; in 2H we will pivot to driving repeat, and together they complete the member growth flywheel.Across city tiers, consumption potential is being unlocked broadly, with positive SSS across the board. Provincial capitals are driven by large stores and flagship IPs, while new-tier cities are driven by penetration gains and new customer acquisition, with very healthy growth during the Spring Festival. We rolled out a ‘trendy toys to lower-tier cities’ strategy, bringing MINISO’s IP products and equivalent shopping experience to county-level markets, where SSS achieved double-digit growth. This shows the emotional appeal of IP and trendy toys resonates much more broadly than expected.Young consumers in smaller cities share the same needs but previously lacked supply. This also shows MINISO’s brand now spans diverse consumer groups, and China’s market depth far exceeds common perception. **Q: Q1 SSS in China was strong, but the base will rise in subsequent quarters. How do you view sustaining SSS growth on a higher base, and what strategies and tactical reserves are in place?** A: The base is indeed rising, but our strategy is clear and systematic. During the Labor Day holiday, domestic sales grew in the high teens to low 20s and outpaced major competitors, with average daily sales hitting a holiday record and even surpassing the Spring Festival average.Third-party data indicate pressured traffic over the period, yet our store entry rate rose 4.1% and per-capita traffic also increased, meaning we drove traffic against headwinds. By category, toys, digital accessories, and travel products grew 25%, which is a very solid outcome. To sustain SSS, we will keep launching differentiated, high-frequency IP collaborations such as F1’s global exclusive license and Disney tie-ups. May–Jun. is a gifting-heavy season (Mother’s Day, Children’s Day, Father’s Day, 520), and we have curated assortments and campaigns to lift basket size.Operationally, we rolled out in-store traffic competitions to empower stores, and the supply chain is being optimized to capture sales windows even during holidays. So even with a higher base, we have a diversified toolkit and are confident in delivering continued strong SSS. **Q: How are self-owned IPs (e.g., Penpen, Kumaru) progressing, and what does the product pipeline look like?** A: It’s a great question. Third-party licensed IP and self-owned IP may look similar on the surface, but the underlying logic is very different.On margins, self-owned IP carries higher GPM than licensed IP. More importantly, self-owned IP offers the strongest exclusivity and absolute differentiation, which is essential to sustain margins. Pricing power, operating autonomy, and the entire value chain sit fully in our hands with self-owned IP, enabling a long-term, high-margin model. But the key is to diversify monetization.A mature self-owned IP is not just about selling products—you can license to third parties, operate across formats, and drive content production and IP capability upgrades, all of which are high-margin, compounding models over time. Our presence at the Met Gala and entry into fashion weeks reflect brand value-building beyond product sales, as we construct a fully differentiated business model alongside our self-owned IPs for a structurally higher long-term profit profile. **Q: Europe is growing fast and still in investment mode. What are the long-term opportunities and strategies? Near to medium term, how will store openings, new-store profitability, and margin trends develop in Europe this year?** A: Europe continues to deliver positive SSS this year, led by trendy-toy categories (e.g., blind boxes). This underpins our international expansion thesis—we are not selling existing products but creating IP-driven trendy-toy consumption scenarios and new demand.Channel upgrades are advancing in parallel, with large stores to be rolled out in 1H. On profitability, Poland and Germany serve as strong proofs. Self-operated stores in both markets exceeded expectations, with double-digit store-level and market-level OPMs, and Germany’s 10+ stores have already stabilized at double-digit operating margins.Other markets are ramping. Q1 is typically a retail off-season and the best window to prepare for new openings. Our long-term profitability goal for Europe DTC is clear—Germany has achieved it and other markets will follow, and we have both patience and a clear roadmap for this long-term market. **Q: How are large-format stores performing in the U.S., and what are the operating results? Has member purchase frequency improved with the rollout of larger stores?** A: Over the past two to three years, we have been building the largest DTC network in non-U.S. consumer goods in America. We started exploring the large-store format in Jan. 2024; before that, since 2017 most stores were located in shopping malls.Since Jan. 2024, we have opened Garden Stores (standalone), steadily building our understanding of this format. Our stores have entered the 2.0 era. Version 2.0 is much less picky about trade areas, yet even in average locations, large Buzza stores deliver strong single-store sales and sales per sqm.Compared with 1.0, 2.0 stores are actually more profitable, with the U.S. payback period typically around one year and 2.0 kept within a year. Same-store performance is exceeding expectations and continues to improve. In other words, in the near future, U.S. 2.0 stores can be scaled to more cities and trade areas as a proven model to unlock more of the U.S. market potential. On membership, China has a mature CRM playbook that we are extending to the U.S.Over the past year, member sales in the U.S. have grown significantly. In China, it took five years from 2018 for member sales to exceed half of revenue; in the U.S., we reached that mark in just one year. U.S. customer repurchase rates are on par with China’s, so we are confident in healthy store productivity this year. **Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer:**[**Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure**](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### Related Stocks - [MNSO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MNSO.US.md) - [09896.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09896.HK.md) - [TOP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TOP.US.md)