---
title: "XPEV: Inflection Point in Sight — Does the 'Eastern Tesla' Story Still Have Legs?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41211888.md"
description: "New-vehicle Cycle: Early Inflection"
datetime: "2026-05-28T13:29:18.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41211888.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/41211888.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/41211888.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)"
---

# XPEV: Inflection Point in Sight — Does the 'Eastern Tesla' Story Still Have Legs?

$XPeng(XPEV.US) released its Q1 2026 results after HK close and before U.S. pre-market on May 28 Beijing time. Overall, it beat under a low bar, with standout prints in auto GPM and Q2 guidance, as the new model cycle shows early signs of a turn.

**1) Revenue beat, but 'Services & others' fell from a seasonal high:** Total revenue came in at RMB 13.0 bn, above the RMB 12.8 bn consensus, mainly on stronger vehicle sales.However, 'services & others' was RMB 2.03 bn, down RMB 1.15 bn QoQ from RMB 3.18 bn, as last quarter recognized milestone licensing from the E/E architecture R&D with Volkswagen, now normalizing this quarter, and there was no extra overseas carbon-credit revenue this quarter.

**2) Auto revenue beat; ASP rose against the trend on mix:** Auto sales were RMB 11.0 bn (-23% YoY; vs. consensus RMB 10.8 bn). ASP reached RMB 175k, up RMB 11k QoQ and above market expectations of RMB 172k, driven by higher mix of the higher-priced X9 and higher-margin exports, offsetting price cuts.

**3) Auto GPM a small positive surprise; mix offset cost headwinds:** Q1 deliveries were soft (down 33% YoY to 63k units). Higher BOM on X9, lower scale that limited fixed-cost absorption, early ramp for range-extended trims, and rising prices for key inputs (batteries, chips, aluminum) lifted unit cost by ~RMB 11k to RMB 154k.

Despite aggressive 'spec bump at same price' pricing and weaker volume, the market expected auto GPM to fall QoQ to 11.3%. Actual auto GPM was 12.1% (down only 90bps QoQ), beating. Unit GP held at ~RMB 21k, roughly flat QoQ.

**4) Overall GPM beat, led by auto GPM:** Q1 blended GPM was 20.6%, beating the 20.2% consensus and the 20% guide. Unlike past quarters when software/licensing led the beat, this time it was driven by the core auto business. By contrast, 'services & others' GPM fell to 66.5%, slightly below the ~67% consensus, as high-margin tech R&D and carbon-credit contributions declined in mix.

**5) Heavy AI and new-model spend drove a big R&D beat; S&M/GA trended lower QoQ:** To prepare for a 2026 'product year' and AI ecosystem, XPeng front-loaded strategic investment. R&D was RMB 2.91 bn (vs. consensus RMB 2.53 bn), focusing on the dual-energy strategy (BEV + range-extended) product cycle, in-house 'Turing' chips and VLA 2.0 model upgrades, and the 'Iron' humanoid robot (mass production targeted by end-2026 with \>1,000 units/month capacity).

S&M/GA was RMB 1.88 bn (vs. RMB 2.03 bn consensus), down ~RMB 900 mn QoQ on lower franchise commissions due to weaker volume. Channel build-out continues, with a net addition of 12 stores in the quarter to 733, laying groundwork for future scale-up.

**6) Loss widened as volume leverage has yet to kick in:** Net loss was RMB -1.78 bn, below the market’s RMB -1.3 bn estimate, pressured by elevated R&D, a QoQ decline of RMB 660 mn in one-off 'other income' (e.g., subsidies), and larger FX losses.On core OP (GP minus core Opex), Q1 was RMB -1.87 bn (vs. RMB -40 mn in Q4), implying volume failed to stimulate end-market demand as expected and positive operating leverage has not materialized, leaving the core business bleeding near term.

**Dolphin Research view:**

Overall, XPeng delivered a slight beat against low expectations. A richer mix led by X9 and rising export contribution lifted ASP QoQ, offsetting rising unit costs and driving upside in auto revenue and GPM.

But XPeng is still in a 'invest now for future payoff' phase. High R&D plus seasonal volume softness widened operating losses.

Q1 auto sales were 133k units, -33% YoY. Despite the combined push of G7, P7+, G6, and G9, and the full rollout of the dual-energy strategy (BEV + range-extended), legacy base models under-delivered, fueling doubts about new-cycle power that are already reflected in the stock’s drawdown.

As the Q1 trough appears largely priced in, the market focuses on Q2 guidance, especially after the dual-energy strategy faced interim pressure in Q1. Above-consensus Q2 volume and revenue guidance validates the potential of the 2026 MONA M03 refresh and the all-new GX to pull XPeng out of its rut. Details:

**a) Volume guide beat, driven by new models**

Q2 delivery guidance is 100k–106k units, above the 97k consensus and roughly flat YoY. With 31k units delivered in Apr, implied May/Jun average needs to be 34.5k–37.5k units. The lift should come mainly from two models — the 2026 MONA M03 refresh (launched Apr 2) and the all-new full-size flagship SUV GX (RMB 289.8k–359.8k; launched May 20) — confirming they are helping XPeng overcome early hurdles in the dual-energy rollout.

**b) Revenue guide implies flat QoQ ASP; GX offsets higher MONA M03 mix**

Q2 revenue guidance of RMB 19.6–20.8 bn also tops the RMB 19.3 bn consensus, largely volume-driven. It implies Q2 ASP around RMB 175k, roughly flat vs. Q1, as the higher-priced GX helps offset the rising mix of the lower-priced MONA M03 (RMB 119.8k–151.8k).

**② For full-year 2026:**

**Despite a bumpy Q1 start for dual-energy, XPeng still has four new SUVs queued up, sustaining a strong cycle, with exports becoming a core growth engine.**

**Exports as the core growth driver:** The company plans to double overseas sales in 2026 to 90k units, prioritizing Israel, Germany, Norway, Thailand, and France, and expand the network to 680 stores across 60+ countries/regions. Exports reached nearly 17.5k units in Jan–Apr. Dolphin Research sees execution risk on the aggressive target and, under a neutral case, estimates 80k exports (+78% YoY).

**Domestic base supported by a 'big new-model year':** With two volume MONA SUVs launching through Q2/H2, Dolphin Research expects 2026 domestic sales to rise ~9% YoY to 420k units, broadly in line with industry growth.

**On AI: XPeng is accelerating the shift from R&D to commercialization:**

**a. ADAS/AD base upgrade:** Hardware: in-house 'Turing' chip (750 TOPS per die) is in mass production across the lineup. Algorithms: VLA 2.0 foundation model launched in Mar with a 'vision-to-action' architecture, to serve autos, Robotaxi and robotics on a unified stack. A new 'General Intelligence Center' was created to speed integration.

**b. Robotaxi rollout:** Plans to launch three Robotaxi-focused models in 2026, equipped with four Turing chips (3,000 TOPS), start pilot operations, and license SDKs to third parties.

**c. Humanoid robot sprint:** Next-gen 'Iron' is in a critical R&D phase, featuring solid-state batteries and three Turing chips, integrating multimodal foundation models, aimed at commercial, industrial, and home use cases. Mass production is targeted by end-2026 with monthly capacity \>1,000 units.

Based on full-year 2026 sales of 500k units (+16% YoY) and revenue of ~RMB 94.0 bn, Dolphin Research assigns a conservative 1.0–1.2x P/S, implying a market cap of RMB 94.0–106.6 bn as a safer entry to capture 'auto + AI' optionality, with a stronger margin of safety (this mainly values the auto business, excluding AI options in Robotaxi and robotics).

If AI (Robotaxi pilots, humanoid mass production, etc.) executes and monetizes, the market may re-rate XPeng. Assuming 1.5x P/S in 2026 (AI premium), implied market cap would be ~RMB 141.0–160.0 bn, or ~33–50% upside vs. the current U.S. market cap of ~RMB 106.5 bn.

Therefore, with supportive Q2 guidance, two volume MONA models in H2, faster Robotaxi rollout, and year-end humanoid mass production as catalysts, XPeng shares still have room to run. If AI delivers on schedule, the valuation center (P/S multiple) could move higher.

**Full text below:**

**I. Auto GPM: a modest positive surprise**

With Q1 deliveries already disclosed, investors focused on auto revenue and margins. Deliveries fell 33% YoY to 63k units, weakening scale, while raw-material costs rose. The market expected auto GPM to drop from 13% in Q4 by 170bps to 11.3% in Q1.

Actual auto GPM printed at 12.1%, above consensus, mainly because ASP kept rising on improved mix and higher export share. This offset cost pressure more than expected.

**Unit economics details:**

**a) ASP: higher-priced trims and exports lifted pricing**

ASP reached RMB 175k, up RMB 11k QoQ from RMB 164k and above the RMB 172k consensus. Two drivers:

**① Higher X9 mix:** The high-ASP X9 rose 6ppts QoQ to 15% of sales. Meanwhile, the budget MONA M03 fell 5ppts QoQ to 33%, shifting domestic mix toward higher price bands.

**② Rising export mix with higher margin:** Exports were 11.6k units (+52% YoY), while domestic volume fell 41% YoY to 51k. Export mix rose 5.3ppts QoQ to 18.4%, and higher overseas pricing directly lifted ASP.

**③ Bigger discounts, offset by better mix and exports**

XPeng increased promotions in Q1: cash discounts of RMB 5k/8k/17k/8k/8k/5k for G6/G7/G9/P7+/P7/MONA M03, and 3-year 0% or 5–7-year low-rate financing on select models. Despite heavier promotions vs. Q4, the negative was offset by mix improvement and higher export contribution.

**b) Unit cost: scale headwinds and input inflation pushed costs up**

Unit cost rose to ~RMB 154k, up ~RMB 11k QoQ from RMB 143k. Key drivers:

① Higher inherent cost of premium trims: A larger X9 mix lifts ASP but, as a large MPV, its BOM is structurally high, raising average unit cost. ② Scale effect stalled: Q1 deliveries were only 63k (-33% YoY), near the low end of the 61–66k guide, limiting depreciation/amortization absorption. Despite sector headwinds after purchase-tax changes (~5% YoY EV industry decline), XPeng’s drop exceeded the industry as it pushed a full dual-energy lineup across G7/P7+/G6/G9.

New models launched since late Jan with 'range-extended = BEV price' and 'spec bump at same price' did not trigger the expected demand response amid a weak macro and a policy gap, so scale benefits did not materialize. ③ Early ramp and supply volatility: Early ramp losses (especially first-time range-extended), plus rising prices for batteries, memory chips, and aluminum, further increased COGS per unit.

**c) Unit GP: roughly flat QoQ**

Unit GP was ~RMB 21k, roughly flat QoQ and above the ~RMB 19k consensus. With unit cost up ~RMB 11k QoQ, ASP also rose ~RMB 11k, keeping unit GP stable. Auto GPM printed at 12.1%, down only 90bps QoQ vs. the 11.3% consensus.

**II. Q2 guide beat; new models may reverse early dual-energy softness**

After interim pressure in Q1 for the dual-energy push, above-consensus Q2 volume and revenue guidance validate the 2026 MONA M03 refresh and the new GX as catalysts to lead XPeng out of the lull. Specifically:

**a) Volume guide beat, driven mainly by new models**

Q1 auto sales were 133k units, -33% YoY. Despite the G7/P7+/G6/G9 combo and the full dual-energy rollout, legacy base-model uplift lagged, and doubts on the new-cycle firepower have been reflected in the share price.

Q2 delivery guide is 100k–106k, above the 97k consensus and roughly flat YoY. With 31k in Apr, implied May/Jun average is 34.5k–37.5k, mainly driven by the 2026 MONA M03 (launched Apr 2) and the all-new flagship GX (RMB 289.8k–359.8k; launched May 20), confirming these models are reversing early setbacks in the dual-energy strategy.

**b) Revenue guide implies flat ASP QoQ; GX offsets higher MONA M03 mix**

Q2 revenue guidance of RMB 19.6–20.8 bn also beats the RMB 19.3 bn consensus, driven by volume. It implies ASP at ~RMB 175k, flat vs. Q1, as the higher-priced GX (RMB 289.8k–359.8k) offsets the rising mix of the lower-priced MONA M03 (RMB 119.8k–151.8k).

**III. Overall GPM beat, led by auto**

Q1 revenue was RMB 13.0 bn (vs. RMB 12.8 bn consensus). Blended GPM was 20.6%, beating the 20.2% consensus and the 20% guide, driven by autos, while other revenue was broadly in line.

**① Revenue beat on better auto:**

Auto revenue and GPM beat as ASP gains offset cost inflation. Auto sales were RMB 11.0 bn (-23% YoY; vs. RMB 10.8 bn consensus), supported by a higher X9 mix and strong, higher-ticket exports.

'Services & others' was RMB 2.03 bn, down RMB 1.15 bn QoQ from RMB 3.18 bn. Two reasons: a) last quarter recognized sizable E/E architecture licensing revenue from the Volkswagen collaboration, normalizing this quarter; b) extra carbon-credit income tied to exports last quarter, with none this quarter.

**② Slight GPM beat, mainly on auto GPM**

Auto GPM was 12.1%, down 90bps QoQ but above the 11.3% consensus, as richer mix offset weakened scale and input inflation. 'Other & services' GPM was 66.5%, down 430bps QoQ and below the ~67% consensus, on lower shares of high-margin tech R&D and carbon credits.

**IV. Opex: building for dual-energy and AI, but weighing on earnings**

XPeng treats 'intelligence' as its moat, requiring sustained heavy spend in AI driving and new platforms. Front-loaded investment for a 2026 product year pushed R&D well above expectations and capped core OP this quarter.

**1) R&D: RMB 2.91 bn, a big beat and up QoQ, fully leaning into new models and physical AI**

R&D reached RMB 2.91 bn vs. RMB 2.53 bn consensus, up RMB 40 mn QoQ from RMB 2.87 bn, driven by new-model development and AI spend in three areas: ① Front-loaded spend for a dense product cycle: since Q4 2025, XPeng has rolled out dual-energy across BEVs and plans four new SUVs in 2026.② Smarter driving: in hardware, in-house 'Turing' (750 TOPS) is shipping across the lineup; in algorithms, VLA 2.0 launched in Mar 2026 with a 'vision-to-action' end-to-end design to cut latency, serving autos, Robotaxi, robotics, and flying vehicles on a unified base, supported by a new 'General Intelligence Center' that merges AD and cockpit teams.③ Humanoids: next-gen 'Iron' uses industry-first solid-state batteries and three 'Turing' chips (total 2,250 TOPS), integrating VLT (reasoning), VLA (action), and VLM (interaction), targeting commercial/industrial/home use, with initial deployments in stores and campuses. Mass production is targeted by end-2026 with monthly capacity \>1,000 units.

Guidance: 2026 R&D to rise ~26% YoY to ~RMB 12.0 bn, with ~RMB 7.0 bn for AI and ~RMB 5.0 bn for vehicle programs. This underscores the dual-track focus.

**2) S&M/GA: sharply lower QoQ on volume, while channel expansion continues**

S&M/GA was RMB 1.88 bn, below the RMB 2.03 bn consensus and down ~RMB 900 mn QoQ, mainly on lower commissions to franchise stores amid weaker sales. To support dual-energy penetration and four new SUVs in 2026, XPeng kept expanding: +12 stores QoQ to 733 and +1 city to 256.

**V. Operating loss widened; volume leverage yet to show**

Net loss was RMB -1.78 bn vs. RMB -1.3 bn consensus. Beyond heavy R&D, a sharp QoQ drop in 'other income' (mainly one-off subsidies, -RMB 660 mn QoQ) and larger FX losses weighed on net.

Core OP (GP minus core Opex) was RMB -1.87 bn in Q1 vs. RMB -40 mn in Q4, deteriorating by ~RMB 1.83 bn, mainly because: a) volume slumped (Q1 133k, -33% YoY), limiting fixed-cost absorption and operating leverage; b) R&D rose QoQ from RMB 2.87 bn to RMB 2.91 bn, further suppressing earnings.

**<End here\>**

**Dolphin Research’s deep dives and tracking on XPeng include:**

**Earnings season**

**Aug 19, 2025 earnings take:** [**XPeng: GPM at a new high — ready to spread its wings?**](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/33127311?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&channel=t33127311&invite-code=4NOXYT&locale=zh-CN&community_badge=1&profile_following_followers_activities=1)

**Aug 20, 2025 call transcript:** [**XPeng (Trans): Aiming for New P7 to rank top-3 in RMB 200k–300k BEVs**](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/33142281?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&channel=t33142281&invite-code=4NOXYT&locale=zh-CN&community_badge=1&profile_following_followers_activities=1)

**May 21, 2025:** [**XPeng: After the grind, ready to soar?**](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/29900770?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&channel=t29900770&invite-code=4NOXYT&locale=zh-CN&community_badge=1&profile_following_followers_activities=1)

**May 21, 2025:** [**(1Q25 Trans): Poised for takeoff?**](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/29907411?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&channel=t29907411&invite-code=4NOXYT&locale=zh-CN&community_badge=1&profile_following_followers_activities=1)

**Risk disclosure & statement:** [**Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure**](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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