---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41540319.md"
description: "Currently, among the Federal Reserve seats, only Warsh is relatively dovish, while the others are hawks + swing voters. Therefore, it is extremely difficult for the Fed's interest rate decision to get 7 votes in favor, unless there is some data support, such as inflation data (CPI and PCE). In terms of data: energy accounts for 6% to 10% of the weight in the U.S. CPI. For every 10% increase in oil prices, the overall U.S. CPI rises by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points.For inflation data to come down, oil prices must be brought down.For oil prices to fall, the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran must be successful, and the Strait of Hormuz must pass smoothly. Otherwise, inflation won't come down, which will affect the midterm elections. There are less than 5 months until the midterm elections.Trump is in danger...On the contrary, the role of the East is currently very crucial...Trump now holds many chips but is currently under attack from both front and rear.Trade! Trade! Trade!"
datetime: "2026-06-05T15:42:50.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41540319.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/41540319.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/41540319.md)
author: "[AngerBird](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/13017810.md)"
---

# Currently, among the Federal Reserve seats, only W…


## Comments (10)

- **半仓买入，永不碰meta · 2026-06-05T22:29:14.000Z**: Fortunately, I carefully read Bird Uncle's article, reduced a large portion of my position, bought a put option, and almost offset the losses through this back-and-forth. Thanks, Bird Uncle.
- **Oliver Twist · 2026-06-05T16:27:31.000Z · 👍 1**: Kalshi: 63% probability of an interest rate hike this yearStill talking about rate cuts? Unless Trump does something big this weekend and pulls out of Iran quickly, the sooner the better, time waits for no one, WE WILL SEE😁
  - **AngerBird** (2026-06-05T16:28:45.000Z): Yes... the sentiment is indeed not good at the moment...
  - **Oliver Twist** (2026-06-05T16:39:06.000Z): While we were talking, 7460 has already fallen, and this support level has been broken. A series of issues, rationally and objectively speaking, it's really not necessary to drag it out any longer. In
  - **AngerBird** (2026-06-05T16:42:04.000Z): It's fine, look further ahead, AI will bring a new technological revolution... This drop is nothing compared to April last year and March this year.
- **三思又三思 · 2026-06-05T15:53:44.000Z**: Trump has a natural disadvantage, the midterm elections are a sharp sword, but his hometown doesn't have this situation.
  - **AngerBird** (2026-06-05T15:56:09.000Z): His negotiation style is still trying to get some extra benefits as always. It seems he's hit a wall for now, but he still has a lot of chips to play. Releasing some of them should be possible.
- **读书炒股 · 2026-06-05T15:47:46.000Z**: It seems to be about the US and Iran, but it's actually about China and the US! The most important bargaining chip hasn't been obtained, so it's impossible to resolve the Strait issue.
  - **AngerBird** (2026-06-05T15:48:46.000Z): This is the ultimate pressure from a top negotiator... let's see who can hold out until the end.