--- type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41853014.md" description: "$Microsoft(MSFT.US)As of mid-June 2026, Microsoft's stock price has retreated from its previous all-time high of around $555 to near $390, a year-to-date decline of over 15%. Against the backdrop of overall gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, Microsoft's consecutive declines in a contrary market have indeed caused anxiety for many investors. However, this is precisely the most classic **"valuation correction and sentiment digestion"** phase on Wall Street.1. Why has Microsoft's stock price been falling continuously recently?There's a famous saying on Wall Street: "Short term is about sentiment, long term is about performance." This round of decline for Microsoft isn't due to a deterioration in its fundamentals, but rather because the market is recalibrating expectations. The core reasons are the following three points:1. Core Contradiction: The "Indigestion" of AI Capital Expenditure (CapEx)This is the direct trigger for the recent stock price pressure. Last week, Oracle disclosed a massive $95 billion AI infrastructure expansion plan, which directly ignited market worries about capital expenditures across all tech giants. The market is now asking a very practical question: "The money is invested, when will it turn into real profits?"To build AI data centers and purchase computing chips, Microsoft's capital expenditure has increased by over 80% year-over-year. Although AI demand remains strong, Wall Street is concerned that this aggressive "cash-burning" pace will severely squeeze profit margins in the short term, leading to temporary fear of heights among investors.From an investment strategy perspective, the current decline is creating a highly attractive "golden pit" for long-term investors. Microsoft's P/E ratio has now fallen to around 23 times, making its valuation highly cost-effective.We predict that the key turning point for Microsoft's stock price to stop falling and rebound will appear in late July 2026.Specifically, there are two core triggers:Turning Point One: The Latest Quarterly Earnings Preview Around July 27-29At that time, Microsoft will release its latest earnings report. If Microsoft can once again deliver evidence of Azure cloud business growth exceeding expectations and AI capital expenditure translating into actual revenue (proving its high AI return on capital), Wall Street's doubts will vanish. This is highly likely to become the direct catalyst for the stock price to bottom out and rebound.Turning Point Two: The Large-Scale Renewal Period for Enterprise Copilot in the Second Half of the YearAs the trial period for Microsoft 365 Copilot ends in major enterprises, the second half of the year will usher in a real "subscription renewal wave." Once the ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) in the enterprise market shows a significant increase, the market will realize that Microsoft's AI is not just "burning money" but also efficiently "making money," triggering a new round of valuation repair.Currently, the consensus rating for Microsoft among mainstream Wall Street buy-side and sell-side institutions remains **"Strong Buy,"** with the average 12-month target price generally between $560 and $600. This implies a potential upside of nearly 40% or more from the current price.Operation Strategy: The current continuous decline is not a precursor to a crash, but a "technical adjustment" during the halftime of a bull market. For medium- to long-term capital, adopting a **"Buy the Dip" in batches** strategy before the earnings report at the end of July would be a choice with a very high probability of winning." datetime: "2026-06-13T09:54:43.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41853014.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/41853014.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/41853014.md) author: "[帶刺的韭菜](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/19465128.md)" --- # $Microsoft(MSFT.US)As of mid-June 2026, Microsoft'… ### Related Stocks - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [VOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOOG.US.md) - [MSFL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFL.US.md) - [MSFO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFO.US.md) - [MSFD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFD.US.md) - [MSFU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFU.US.md) - [MSFX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFX.US.md) - [MSFY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFY.US.md)