--- type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41855199.md" description: "$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) Since the Blue Origin rocket explosion incident, stocks in the space industry have been acting strangely. $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) stock price has been highly volatile, and in the short term, it has also been affected by the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, showing a clear phenomenon of "capital rotation + sell the news." The stock price fell 15.53% last Friday, and the current price is $82.41.The most clear positive catalyst recently is that AST SpaceMobile has confirmed that BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 will be launched on June 17th aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral.These are next-generation satellites with larger communication arrays and expected peak speeds nearly doubling. In the direct-to-cell market, $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) has patent protection on the technical side and has already signed contracts with telecom operators. Currently, I believe it has the technical capability to share the market with SpaceX in the direct-to-cell service field.However, whether a company operates well is not solely dependent on technical capability.The stock price differs greatly from current revenue, and subsequent investors must see a steep revenue growth curve; otherwise, it is insufficient to support the current stock price.The top-left chart shows the implied volatility over the past two years. In this chart, we can clearly see the significantly declining stock price while volatility remains high. This is something relatively positive I see in today's data, but how positive this is must rely on the Put/Call volatility spread for judgment.The top-right chart shows the recent volatility spread trend. This chart looks quite unfavorable because, despite such a significant drop in stock price, the main trading pattern is still chasing to buy call options. The volatility spread has been in a deeply negative state most of the time. Very few market participants are buying Puts to hedge against the stock price decline; everyone is still in a strong speculative atmosphere of buying on every dip.For the stock price to rise significantly, it naturally needs a speculative frenzy to boost it. However, during the process of the stock price retracing and consolidating, if it does not trigger panic and spur a frenzy of chasing to buy put options, it is very unfavorable for the stock price's retracement and consolidation. In plain terms: the deleveraging of the long positions has not yet been completed.Only after removing the long positions can favorable conditions for the next big rally be brewed.Looking at the bottom-right chart, the correlation coefficient analysis between stock price returns and volatility, as expected, the current correlation coefficient still maintains a significantly positive correlation. The stock price has fallen so much, but compared to February and April of this year, we still cannot determine that the stock price correction is complete based on the existing data.The bottom-left chart shows the change in option positions during last Friday's trading. The increase in call option positions is still more obvious, but put option positions have also started to increase, which is a good sign. I think the stock price should not rush to rebound next; it would be a better state if it could consolidate weakly and let the bullish trading sentiment cool down.Summary: The stock price has already fallen so much, but surprisingly, the analysis data suggests "it hasn't fallen enough yet."" datetime: "2026-06-14T01:36:04.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41855199.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/41855199.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/41855199.md) author: "[CurryOption](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/27650593.md)" --- # $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) Since the Blue Origin r… ### Related Stocks - [ASTS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ASTS.US.md) - [BLUE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BLUE.US.md) - [AMZN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZN.US.md) - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [AMZU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZU.US.md) ## Comments (2) - **旧用户_fafa · 2026-06-14T04:20:26.000Z**: Rational and objective analysis - **站起来蹬 · 2026-06-14T02:41:44.000Z**: Professional