---
title: "The second half of AI semiconductor stock selection"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41855363.md"
description: "Assumption:"
datetime: "2026-06-14T03:06:56.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41855363.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/41855363.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/41855363.md)
author: "[晓风 morning_wind](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/6620864.md)"
---

# The second half of AI semiconductor stock selection

Assumption:

### Related Stocks

- [AMD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMD.US.md)
- [INTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/INTC.US.md)
- [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md)
- [ARM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ARM.US.md)
- [TSM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSM.US.md)
- [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md)
- [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md)
- [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md)
- [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md)
- [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md)
- [NVDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md)
- [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md)
- [NVDQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md)
- [AMDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMDL.US.md)
- [04335.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/04335.HK.md)

## Comments (23)

- **tigerinmotion 之天地过客 · 2026-06-15T03:28:32.000Z**: You are trying to explain the rationality behind a distorted market pricing, which in my view is the biggest joke.If Google and Microsoft say tomorrow that we will start cutting CAPEX by 10% next year, taking it slow, do you know what will happen to the market? All SMH and SOXX dropping 30% in two d
  - **晓风 morning_wind** (2026-06-15T06:44:44.000Z): The premise is that capex grows moderately, which was explained earlier. The optical/memory sectors might have peaked, meaning if capex grows moderately, they face greater pressure to become commoditi
  - **tigerinmotion 之天地过客** (2026-06-15T06:47:39.000Z): Everything is a commodity; there's no such thing as pricing commoditization. As long as it's scarce, as long as the big players are willing to secure production capacity with capital lock-in, then it'
  - **晓风 morning_wind** (2026-06-15T06:56:51.000Z): Both you and I can agree that growth below 40% next year would be a regression, but we can't easily conclude that it will definitely reach 40%, right? Macro factors, the ARR of leading models, and the
- **tigerinmotion 之天地过客 · 2026-06-15T03:21:59.000Z**: The reason for ARM is that 90% of the chips are locked in Sun's safe. This is blatant stock price manipulation.
  - **晓风 morning_wind** (2026-06-15T06:39:30.000Z): This one makes sense.
- **呼噜噜壮仔 · 2026-06-14T16:05:43.000Z**: From this perspective, after switching to the new normal of high expenditure and low growth, semiconductor equipment (a high-barrier, “selling shovels” track) has undervalued long-term potential and a superior risk-reward ratio, making it a priority to watch!
- **暂时停止 · 2026-06-14T15:51:18.000Z**: Listen to Feng's analysis. Study it carefully.
- **空军吃我元气弹 · 2026-06-14T15:21:00.000Z**: Good stuff but nobody's watching, huh?
- **Rich越越越越 · 2026-06-14T13:59:52.000Z · 👍 1**: Learn!
- **护花使者爱理财 · 2026-06-14T11:01:42.000Z**: $Lumentum(LITE.US)is about to run away?
- ***烟火声* · 2026-06-14T06:19:28.000Z**: 👍
- **江東 · 2026-06-14T05:58:54.000Z**: Bro Xiaofeng, could you please explain your investment logic for Marvell?
  - **晓风 morning_wind** (2026-06-14T06:11:13.000Z): Bet on the technological development trend of optical modules entering chip packaging.
- **奇迹的交易员cola · 2026-06-14T04:50:44.000Z · 👍 3**: Repost and feature it 🐂🍺
- **axlerod · 2026-06-14T04:40:22.000Z**: That's a really good analysis.
- **跟顾神反着买 · 2026-06-14T03:12:22.000Z**: First in line to check in