--- title: "美股实盘：躺出新高度（20260614）" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41856131.md" description: "综述：本周标普 500 指数 上涨 0.65%，我的实盘净值 上涨 9.84%。2026 年内标普 500 指数 上涨 8.56%，2026 年内我的实盘净值 上涨 109.97%（年初净值为 2.20，本周净值 4.62）。交易：无持仓：NVDA 10.0%，SNDK 36.1%，MRVL 8.5%，GLW 11.7%，NEM 11.4%，LITE 9.8%，现金/美债 12.5%。有四舍五入..." datetime: "2026-06-14T06:09:37.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41856131.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/41856131.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/41856131.md) author: "[京城Z先生](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/9198235.md)" --- # 美股实盘：躺出新高度（20260614） **综述：** 本周标普 500 指数 上涨 0.65%，我的实盘净值 上涨 9.84%。 2026 年内标普 500 指数 上涨 8.56%，2026 年内我的实盘净值 上涨 109.97%（年初净值为 2.20，本周净值 4.62）。 ![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/f43236eab974003603a2491557abed63?x-oss-process=style/lg) **交易：** 无 **持仓：** NVDA 10.0%，SNDK 36.1%，MRVL 8.5%，GLW 11.7%，NEM 11.4%，LITE 9.8%，现金/美债 12.5%。 有四舍五入，且一般不记录低于 1% 的迷你仓和短线投机操作。 **复盘：** 我又躺了，6 月不太适合交易。我之前也预警过几次了，接下来还有 SpaceX 和沃什的议息发言，美国的各种影响通胀的数据和特师傅与郎子的爱恨情仇，和即将陆续披露的中报，波动会比较大，最好卸掉杠杆，不然只要踩错方向，很轻松就能亏掉过往一年的量，不如多看少动。 这周特师傅对郎子的口风松了，中东危机降级；SpaceX 上市首日也并没有想象中的热闹，吸血危机降级；市场对沃什的预期，也从加息变成了最多 6 月不降息，加息危机降级；总体上来看，大家应该都认为上周超跌了，这周遂大反弹，我的头号重仓股闪迪更是一周暴涨 28cm 突破 2000 大关。 美股市场长期看，总会奖励那些长期做多优质公司的人，但各大券商近期都纷纷解除了日内交易的所有限制，各种超短期金融衍生品更是层出不穷，不断勾引投资人做赌博，进一步扩大中短期的股价波动。 这是巨大的诱惑，更是巨大的风险，08 年金融危机就是因为华尔街搞出没人能算明白账的超级杠杆爆了，近期海外不少宏观学者表达了对当下环境的担忧，认为一切都很像，一边是复杂的超级杠杆，一边是大厂都在降本增效，一旦资金续不上了，可能会出现踩踏。 当然，我认为目前还在早期，此事不会立刻发生，但这个隐患确实在的，钱是赚不完的，但是能亏完的，适度结账永远对。 \--- **个股方面，** 1、科技：NVDA/GOOG 今年美股是 AI 牛市，但对纳指的权重股 M7 可不是，如果说 AI 就是硅基崩老头游戏的话，那么这些大厂就是被崩的老头，而 AI 基建的细分赛道股，就是精神小妹，所以这两年投小妹的都赢麻了，投老头的赚钱不多，甚至还有不少人是亏的，而且全都大幅跑输大盘指数。 最近比较抢手的小妹是 Mlcc 和 InP 这类型的，错过了的话，接下来是什么得自己去挖，跟不上轮转的话不如躺平。 2、存储：SNDK/MU 上周周报我说：“此前很多人喊踏空了存储，如今机会来了，你敢接吗？” 我不认为有多少新人接了，只有本来就在车上没动的，和本来在车上但进一步加仓了的，但当下确实没有年初各种存储炒作崩溃论叫嚣时赔率那么高了。 本周的大修复，除了板块基本面强进外，还和韩国有关，很多基金都有个股仓位上限的限制，但由于三星和海力士年内实在涨太猛了，导致投韩国的基金都要被动调仓卖出它们才行，不过既然是梭哈之国，怎能允许影响梭哈的规则存在，所以它们近期重新修订了相关规则，基金们不用再被动卖出了，至少不用卖那么多了。 3、光通信：LITE/MRVL/GLW 本周光通信全家桶基本都是涨的，虽然距离前高还有一定距离，但是经过充分的回调，接下来就是拼基本面，等中报，看业绩，看未来指引，去弱留强了。 板块处于景气周期不代表都能涨，尤其低位时不信涨起来才来追的，一般来讲，这些人不卖就很难破新高。 本周估值表新加了一个 “老登” 诺基亚，主要是诺基亚收购 Infinera 后，拥有自己的磷化铟晶圆厂和封测厂，这是 Ciena 等竞争对手不具备的核心优势。预计 2026 年 Q4，诺基亚在除中国以外的全球光传输市场收入首次超过 Ciena。 4、金属：GLD/NEM 差点就彻底破位了，但是后半周 V 回来了。 至少市场资金的选择来看，还是在押注不会加息，无非是把最乐观的 6 月降息修正为 9 月，接下来就看沃什怎么巧妙的证明自己是 “客观独立第三方”，绝不是特师傅的狗腿子了。 5、其他： 周五 SpaceX 上市，航空航天这条线我个人是没有配置的，对于无法估值的公司不知道怎么评估它是否值得买。 我只知道基于物理常识，去火星这事是没戏的，但马斯克并不是纯粹的骗子，他经常能把自己画的饼部分实现，比如在月球附近搞个叫马尔斯的空间站，做短途商业旅游和太空科研，有稳定盈利了再投也不迟，我比较保守不为任何人的梦想买单，各位随意。 还有个 ETF，代码 NASA，喜欢搞星辰大海宏大叙事投资的可以关注下，SpaceX 也是成分股之一。   6、下周计划 继续躺吧，有什么事月底再说。 \--- 最后，估值表： ![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/85f05918ca995c7deec50d0fb8e9f4dd?x-oss-process=style/lg) **注释（请一定阅读）：** 1、上图的点位均为本人通过特定的方式计算，不代表一定能精确且能触达，只是辅助参考作用。 2、一个点位有 2 个值，则代表该区间的上下限，用哪个取决于本人的主观意愿和对公司的了解程度。 3、标蓝标红都是为了给自己警示，该股票到达买入/卖出区域附近，需要重点关注，但不代表我一定会执行。 4、表格内相关数字，会随我个人对公司基本面的动态评估，不定期调整，请勿作为长期参考。 5、以上表格内容均为本人实盘记录，是做给我自己看的，无法指导你们的交易，问就是别买/赶紧割。 ### Related Stocks - [SNDK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNDK.US.md) - [DXYZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DXYZ.US.md) - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [SSNGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSNGY.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [LITE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LITE.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [NOA3.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NOA3.DE.md) - [NOK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NOK.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [SQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SQQQ.US.md) - [PSQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSQ.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [QQQE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQE.US.md) - [TQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [INFN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/INFN.US.md) - [CI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CI.US.md) - [GLW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLW.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [NEM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NEM.US.md) - [MRVL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MRVL.US.md) ## Comments (42) - **不会投机倒把 · 2026-06-15T07:07:02.000Z**: All in on Nokia - **把钱还我，我不玩了 · 2026-06-15T05:17:38.000Z**: Want to ask Z, what's your view on Montage Tech? Seems like it hasn't been mentioned. - **京城Z先生** (2026-06-15T05:31:43.000Z): Sectors are fine too, can't watch them all. Just focus on a few. - **把钱还我，我不玩了** (2026-06-15T05:52:36.000Z): Okay, thank you very much. Personally, I feel it's quite reliable among A-shares, but it's a pity it's in the A-share market😅 - **被套安慰自己价值投资 · 2026-06-15T04:25:33.000Z**: Change the phrase "Musk isn't necessarily a scammer" to sometimes you can make money even when you're with scammers😂. - **曜川 · 2026-06-15T00:18:33.000Z · 👍 1**: Following Z teacher, continue to lie flat and not move anything - **。江锋 · 2026-06-14T16:13:48.000Z · 👍 1**: The "hold and don't move" mantra is still gaining value, missed out on some SanDisk chips, feeling bad ☹️ - **跟顾神反着买 · 2026-06-14T15:24:18.000Z**: I still don't show enough respect for BYD, it's too strong😳 - **坚定持有才能发财 · 2026-06-14T14:39:02.000Z**: Teacher, I bought NOK, but your table hasn't been updated with its shareholding ratio. - **提钱退休小up** (2026-06-15T04:59:20.000Z): The teacher hasn't opened a position yet. - **赵传 · 2026-06-14T13:35:30.000Z**: Bought a bunch of Nokia calls and puts, just no shares. By the way, why didn't you buy back Be? Last week gave an opportunity and I bought some more. Feel like this one still has a chance. Too many good stocks, not enough money. Lite directly went 2x. No problem with long-term development, can hold - **ACCCCCC · 2026-06-14T13:32:21.000Z**: When does Z plan to get on the NOK train? 🚗 - **做t小能手 · 2026-06-14T13:06:28.000Z**: nok has saved you a front-row seat, hurry in 😏😏 - **Usagi888 · 2026-06-14T11:18:14.000Z**: Seeking advice from Z, I'm already in Cun and Guang, and I still have 30% of my capital left. I'm not sure whether to continue adding to Cun and Guang or to open a new position.Is it still necessary to allocate to semiconductor materials and equipment that have risen sharply in the past week, such a - **京城Z先生** (2026-06-14T11:21:11.000Z): Don't ask me about trading; decide for yourself. - **dardar · 2026-06-14T08:48:04.000Z · 👍 1**: Can you explain, z, how was GLD valued before? - **奉壹 · 2026-06-14T08:32:08.000Z**: This pullback isn't as severe as the one in March last time; I even added a small position in mu. Thinking about it, I really should have added SanDisk. Also, are those recent news about interest rate hikes just smoke bombs? 😂 - **有耐心+幸运 · 2026-06-14T07:55:14.000Z**: Bought NOK - **蟹老板的交易员 · 2026-06-14T07:40:08.000Z**: $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US)Bought for the first time ahead of Mr. Z, looking forward to Mr. Z building a position to give us full confidence 😝 - **京城Z先生** (2026-06-14T07:43:09.000Z): Here to make me carry the sedan chair again🥲 - **小陈发发** (2026-06-17T01:47:52.000Z): What's the cost? - **蟹老板的交易员** (2026-06-18T05:43:57.000Z): Not low - **不要频繁浇花 · 2026-06-14T07:31:18.000Z · 👍 1**: I share the same view as Z: "I don't know how to evaluate whether a company that can't be valued is worth buying." I'm not someone who invests based on faith. I only assess a company according to a valuation system, and within my calculation logic, I wouldn't buy. Of course, SpaceX might hav - **京城Z先生** (2026-06-14T07:34:16.000Z): There are plenty of opportunities, no need to give up the entire forest for one tree😄 - **不要频繁浇花** (2026-06-14T07:55:09.000Z): Yes, trade what you understand. - **月落西湖 · 2026-06-14T07:25:11.000Z · 👍 2**: The memory position only has DRAM and a little Micron, completely can't beat SanDisk😂 But didn't lose money this week😂 - **京城Z先生** (2026-06-14T07:29:08.000Z): SanDisk has greater volatility, so it's normal for ordinary people to not be able to hold onto it. - **不要频繁浇花** (2026-06-14T07:32:18.000Z): I only configured dram, mu, mrvl, googl, and not configuring sndk was really a big mistake 🤦 But what's missed is missed. - **光辉万丈 · 2026-06-14T07:12:22.000Z**: Mr. Z, I added a little bit of SanDisk during the squeeze last week. - **京城Z先生** (2026-06-14T07:17:30.000Z): Then you must have made a killing again this week. - **唯利是图 · 2026-06-14T07:00:02.000Z**: Ugh, I didn't hold on last Friday, sold SanDisk at 1535, lost a bloody 2000-1535=465*18=8370 dollars. - **京城Z先生** (2026-06-14T07:02:33.000Z): Predicting short-term price movements is very difficult, a breeding ground for scammers 🛏 - **唯利是图** (2026-06-14T07:20:54.000Z): That's how it is. Lie flat and get rich, work hard and get poor! Just consider it paying tuition. - **拿不住就去进厂 · 2026-06-14T06:58:55.000Z · 👍 1**: No matter how fast and fierce the Wall Street scythe swings, just lie flat - **京城Z先生** (2026-06-14T07:02:58.000Z): Scythes are all time-limited, and the only advantage retail investors have is time.