I misjudged SpaceX's first day performance—but if you want to chase it now, you need to think clearly about these three things first.

Let me start with the conclusion: Four days ago, I predicted that SpaceX (ticker SPCX) would "break issue price" (fall below the $135 offering price) when it went public. Instead, it not only didn't drop but rose to $192.5, with a market cap of $2.5 trillion, up 43% in four days. I was wrong. But I was wrong about "when it would fall," not about "whether it's expensive or not"—these two things determine whether you should chase it now.
If the recent surge has made you itch to chase SPCX or tech stocks, listen to my lesson first; it might save you some tuition fees.
First, why was I wrong? I bet that "market sentiment would cool down," but the U.S. and Iran reached a peace deal, oil prices plummeted, and sentiment was actually ignited (this is called risk-on, where safe-haven sentiment recedes and people dare to buy risk assets). SPCX rode this wave higher. Sentiment was stronger than I thought.
Second, but its "expensiveness" hasn't changed. SPCX is valued at 95 times its annual revenue (price-to-sales ratio) and still loses $4.9 billion a year. Independent agency Morningstar says a reasonable price is less than half the offering price. Its rise from $135 to $192.5 isn't because the company improved; it's because people are willing to pay a higher price for this story. Price increase ≠ improvement in fundamentals.
Third, watch for one key timing point next. Early the day after tomorrow (Beijing time 6/18), the new Fed Chair Warsh will hold his first meeting and release the "dot plot" (officials' forecasts for future interest rates). Stocks like SPCX, which rely on future stories to support their valuations, are most sensitive to interest rates. If the Fed is hawkish (unwilling to cut rates), it might be the first to pull back.
So what to do (discovery → understanding → trading): You now know why SPCX surged; you also understand that this rise is mainly driven by sentiment, not fundamentals. Next step—don't chase at a 43% high. If you want to participate, wait for the 6/18 meeting to conclude or for a pullback, enter in batches, don't go all in at once. For me: I didn't buy, and I'm not shorting; I'll start researching only if it falls below the $135 offering price.
(The above is personal opinion sharing and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; invest with caution.)

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