--- title: "I misjudged SpaceX's first day performance—but if you want to chase it now, you need to think clearly about these three things first." type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41904570.md" description: "Let's get straight to the point: Four days ago, I predicted that SpaceX (ticker SPCX) would "break issue price" (fall below the $135 issue price) upon its listing. Instead, it not only didn't fall but also rose to $192.5, reaching a market cap of $2.5 trillion, up 43% in four days. I was wrong. But what I got wrong was "when it would fall," not "whether it's actually expensive" — these two things determine whether you should chase it now. If the recent surge has made you itch to chase SPCX or tech stocks, listen to my lesson first; it might save you from paying tuition. First..." datetime: "2026-06-16T05:44:51.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41904570.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/41904570.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/41904570.md) author: "[Fiona第一线](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25149506.md)" --- # I misjudged SpaceX's first day performance—but if you want to chase it now, you need to think clearly about these three things first. Let me start with the conclusion: Four days ago, I predicted that SpaceX (ticker SPCX) would "break issue price" (fall below the $135 offering price) when it went public. Instead, it not only didn't drop but rose to $192.5, with a market cap of $2.5 trillion, up 43% in four days. I was wrong. But I was wrong about "when it would fall," not about "whether it's expensive or not"—these two things determine whether you should chase it now. If the recent surge has made you itch to chase SPCX or tech stocks, listen to my lesson first; it might save you some tuition fees. **First, why was I wrong?** I bet that "market sentiment would cool **down**," but the U.S. and Iran reached a peace deal, oil prices plummeted, and sentiment was actually ignited (this is called risk-on, where safe-haven sentiment recedes and people dare to buy risk assets). SPCX rode this wave higher. Sentiment was stronger than I thought. **Second, but its "expensiveness" hasn't changed.** SPCX is valued at 95 times its annual revenue (price-to-sales ratio) and still loses $4.9 billion a year. Independent agency Morningstar says a reasonable price is less than half the offering price. Its rise from $135 to $192.5 isn't because the company improved; it's because people are willing to pay a higher price for this story. Price increase ≠ improvement in fundamentals. **Third, watch for one key timing point next.** Early the day after tomorrow (Beijing time 6/18), the new Fed Chair Warsh will hold his first meeting and release the "dot plot" (officials' forecasts for future interest rates). Stocks like SPCX, which rely on future stories to support their valuations, are most sensitive to interest rates. If the Fed is hawkish (unwilling to cut rates), it might be the first to pull back. So **what to do (discovery → understanding → trading)**: You now know why SPCX surged; you also understand that this rise is mainly driven by sentiment, not fundamentals. Next step—don't chase at a 43% high. If you want to participate, wait for the 6/18 meeting to conclude or for a pullback, enter in batches, don't go all in at once. For me: I didn't buy, and I'm not shorting; I'll start researching only if it falls below the $135 offering price. (The above is personal opinion sharing and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; invest with caution.) $SpaceX(SPCX.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) ### Related Stocks - [DXYZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DXYZ.US.md) - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) ## Comments (4) - **纯纯小白 · 2026-06-16T13:18:55.000Z**: In fact, the current price was already formed under the expectation of no interest rate cuts or even possible rate hikes. With the imminent agreement on the war further weakening the expectation of rate hikes, the main focus now should be on the second point: whether the believers are still willing - **前长桥KOL · 2026-06-16T07:52:59.000Z · 👍 1**: Don't make your brother laugh - **邪恶小黑猫 · 2026-06-16T07:26:58.000Z**: I think that with only 4% of SpaceX's shares currently in circulation, it's actually quite easy to drive the stock price up. However, once the lock-up period ends and a large number of shares flood the market, that's a different story. - **赚美金 · 2026-06-16T06:10:01.000Z**: You could say the bold get rich and the timid starve. I started hesitating when it was at 160, and in less than two days, it went above 210.