---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41970877.md"
description: "$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) This time, the FOMC dot plot appears to be holding steady on the surface, but is actually hawkish. The dot plot shows that out of 18 officials, 9 believe there will be at least one more rate hike this year, with 6 of them even expecting multiple hikes. Only 1 official anticipates a rate cut, indicating that the internal discussion at the Fed has shifted from *when* to cut rates to *whether* inflation will resurge and *if* further hikes are needed. The statement removed the forward guidance regarding "further adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate," and its length was significantly shortened, more in line with Warsh's style of emphasizing data dependence and reducing verbal guidance. At the same time, the Fed explicitly highlighted for the first time that supply shocks, such as in energy, are keeping inflation elevated. This suggests that the market's previous belief in the logic chain of AI boosting productivity → inflation naturally falling back → rapid Fed rate cuts is being revised. The future is more likely a combination of Higher Growth + Higher Inflation + Higher for Longer. This environment is actually quite similar to the Greenspan era in 1999, where rates remained high or even increased, but as long as tech profit growth outpaced valuation compression, tech stocks could still hit new highs. So, I think the biggest risk now is not the Fed hiking one more time, but the failure of AI monetization. If NVDA orders slow down, OpenAI and Anthropic growth decelerates, and companies start cutting AI capital expenditure, then high interest rates will truly crush valuations. Conversely, if AI demand continues to materialize, then this hawkish dot plot might just be the market abandoning its fantasy of aggressive rate cuts and returning to a profit-driven bull market. What determines the direction for the second half of the year is not the Fed, but the AI earnings season starting in July."
datetime: "2026-06-17T22:01:48.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/41970877.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/41970877.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/41970877.md)
author: "[LionKing333](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/15271482.md)"
---

# $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) This time, the FOMC dot…


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## Comments (1)

- **奥卡姆的剃刀 · 2026-06-18T00:32:02.000Z**: That sets a very high bar for the July earnings report; even recent earnings that slightly exceeded expectations won't do.