---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42025154.md"
description: "$SpaceX(SPCX.US)What would happen if SPCX's lock-up expires?I'll outline three scenarios.⸻Scenario A (Probability 50%)Soft Landing* SPCX drops 15%-25%* Nasdaq drops around 5%* Quick recoverySimilar to:Facebook 2012The bull market continues.Highest probability.⸻Scenario B (Probability 35%)Mid-term Tech Stock CorrectionIf:* AI capital expenditure slows* Earnings fall short of expectationsThen:The SPCX lock-up expiration becomes the trigger.Result:* SPCX drops 30%-40%* Nasdaq drops 10%-15%* S&P 500 drops 8%-12%Similar to 2018.⸻Scenario C (Probability 15%)Entering a Technical Bear MarketSimultaneous occurrence of:* A wave of lock-up expirations* The Fed turning hawkish again* Long-term bond yields breaking 5%* US economic recessionThen:Nasdaq drops over 20%.But at this point:The reason is no longer SPCX.It's the macro cycle.The main concern now isn't SPCX itself, but the following chain reaction:SPCX lock-up expiration↓Decline in risk appetite for tech stocks↓Compression of AI leader valuations↓Nasdaq correction↓Can corporate profits still maintain high growth?The core indicators that will truly determine the direction of US stocks in the second half of 2026, ranked by importance:1. US 10-year Treasury yield2. Whether the Fed stops cutting rates or even turns hawkish3. AI capital expenditure growth rate4. NVIDIA's earnings growth rate5. SPCX lock-up expiration progressThe importance of the first four items far exceeds that of the fifth."
datetime: "2026-06-19T17:24:11.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42025154.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42025154.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42025154.md)
author: "[colorwei](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/18710163.md)"
---

# $SpaceX(SPCX.US)What would happen if SPCX's lock-u…


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## Comments (1)

- **direct · 2026-06-19T19:14:50.000Z**: Before the lock-up period ends, major shareholders will definitely pump up the stock price.