--- title: "ATFX Forex Outlook: US PCE Data, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and US-Iran Negotiations" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42050937.md" description: "▲ATFX Table This Thursday: US May Core PCE Year-on-Year This Thursday at 20:30, the US will announce the May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, with an expected value of 3.4%, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.3%. For comparison, the May core CPI year-on-year rate was 2.9%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous value. The core CPI and core PCE data are in resonance, making the probability of achieving the expected PCE year-on-year rate of 3.4% relatively high. ▲ATFX Chart PCE data is an important basis for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions..." datetime: "2026-06-22T11:13:45.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42050937.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42050937.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42050937.md) author: "[交易员说](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25527811.md)" --- # ATFX Forex Outlook: US PCE Data, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and US-Iran Negotiations **▲ATFX Chart** **This Thursday: US May Core PCE Year-over-Year Rate** This Thursday at 20:30, the US will release the May Core PCE Price Index year-over-year rate, with an expected value of 3.4%, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.3%. For comparison, the May Core CPI year-over-year rate was 2.9%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous value. With both Core CPI and Core PCE data showing a similar trend, there is a high probability of the PCE year-over-year rate reaching the expected 3.4%. **▲ATFX Graph** PCE data is a crucial basis for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. From November 2025 to the present, the lowest value for Core PCE data was 2.8%, and the highest was 3.3%. There are 6 data points that exceeded or reached 3%, accounting for 85%. The Fed has set 2% as the standard for moderate inflation. The current situation of 3% is far above the target, leading to market expectations of a tightening monetary policy by the Fed. If Thursday's PCE data rises beyond expectations, these tightening expectations will heat up again, potentially putting pressure on gold and silver. **This Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index** This Friday at 22:00, the US will release the June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, with a market expectation of 50.3, higher than the previous value of 48.9. This release is the final reading, which is a revision to the preliminary figure. The preliminary figure, already released on June 12th, was 48.69, higher than the previous 44.8 and above the expected 46. If the final reading this Friday is revised upward further, it would mean a significant strengthening of US consumer confidence, with potential increases in consumer willingness and inflation rate. **▲ATFX Graph** The above is a bar chart of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. From July 2025 to the present, the maximum value of the index was 61.7, and the minimum was 44.8. The maximum occurred a year ago, while the minimum just appeared in May. Looking at the data trend, consumer sentiment overall shows a downward trend. The recent increase in data can only be defined as a rebound, with limited positive effects. **This Wednesday: EIA Crude Oil Inventories and US-Iran Negotiations** **▲ATFX Graph** This Wednesday at 22:30, the US will release the EIA Crude Oil Inventory data for the week ending June 19, with the previous value being a decrease of 8.263 million barrels. The EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending June 19 will also be released simultaneously, with the previous value being a decrease of 8.941 million barrels. Both EIA commercial crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum inventories are in a trend of significant decline. However, because negotiations between the US and Iran showed initial signs during the week of June 19, the inventory data might reverse. Due to high uncertainty, expected values have not yet been released. Even if the crude oil inventory data for June 19 continues to decline significantly, its impact on international crude oil prices may be limited, as the US and Iran are already negotiating in Switzerland. Before the Swiss negotiations, the US and Iran had already signed a memorandum of understanding, agreeing on a 60-day negotiation window during which the Strait of Hormuz will remain open for free passage. If oil from overseas regions can be smoothly exported to demanding countries, it will significantly alleviate the supply-demand imbalance. **ATFX Risk Warning, Disclaimer, Special Statement:** The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. The above content only represents the personal views of the analyst and does not constitute any operational advice. Do not consider this report as the sole reference. The analyst's views may change over different periods, and updated content will not be notified separately.