---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42209000.md"
description: "I'm not going to be an ostrich: If it hasn't completed "de-cyclicalization," where would I be wrong?But I have to clarify the other half. This is "the cycle being extended," not "the cycle has disappeared." Two real risks are weighing on it:First, that 86% gross margin is indeed a ceiling, not a floor. If that floor isn't as hard as the CEO claims, falling from such a height would be disastrous. A floor, without being tested by a real cooling of demand, is just a paper promise.Second, and more fundamental—capital expenditure is on the rise. Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung are planning to expand production together in 2027 and 2028. Historically, the very mechanism that ended each memory cycle was precisely "everyone expanding production together." The capacity planted today is the seed of oversupply the day after tomorrow.$Micron Tech(MU.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)"
datetime: "2026-06-25T15:56:49.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42209000.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42209000.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42209000.md)
author: "[熊猫校长Ming](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/16386316.md)"
---

# I'm not going to be an ostrich: If it hasn't compl…


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## Comments (17)

- **长桥大道无形 · 2026-06-25T18:16:45.000Z · 👍 1**: Actually, what truly determines the peak of storage has never been capacity but demand. If the growth rate of demand is higher than or far exceeds the growth rate of capacity, then there is still some time before the cycle peak. In other words, just keep an eye on three indicators:1. Cloud vendors' 
  - **熊猫校长Ming** (2026-06-25T22:28:38.000Z): You've summarized it really well!👍 These three points are very telling.
  - **长桥大道无形** (2026-06-26T03:02:11.000Z): Just my humble opinion, welcome to share different views and have a friendly discussion.
  - **熊猫校长Ming** (2026-06-26T03:08:27.000Z): Sincerely think the summary is good, concise and comprehensive. I'm MingPandaHu, welcome to communicate directly.
- **鸟枪换炮 · 2026-06-25T16:37:21.000Z · 👍 1**: Everything has its cycle, and people will die too.
  - **熊猫校长Ming** (2026-06-25T16:55:04.000Z): Yes, there is a cycle, it's about the order of arrival. I'm currently writing a new article.
  - **熊猫校长Ming** (2026-06-25T22:28:00.000Z): Always feel it's really great, give it a like.
- **禁止賭博！ · 2026-06-25T16:00:37.000Z · 👍 1**: Let your rate of return do the talking
  - **小旋风2025** (2026-06-25T16:07:16.000Z): The blogger makes a valid point. Back when silver was skyrocketing, the whole world was saying AI was consuming silver, that there wasn't enough for AI, that there was a global shortage, and even that
  - **HTO7TOu🔥** (2026-06-25T16:11:26.000Z): Comparing storage to silver? Do you think Micron doesn't want to expand production? It's a matter of time, the earliest won't be built until 2028, and even then it might not be enough. Moreover, futur
  - **方大桶** (2026-06-25T16:13:23.000Z): It's good to have divergent views. If there's only one voice left in the market, then the only option is to run for your life.