---
title: "Desperate Hong Kong Stocks vs. Cunning U.S. Stocks: June 22-25 Review"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42234017.md"
description: "Happy belated Father's Day to everyone. We, who wore basketball jerseys instead of football jerseys during the World Cup, can also be considered a bizarre father-son pair. The Hang Seng Index remains in a clear downtrend. Fortunately, on Monday, we managed to take profits from the profitable bull warrants; otherwise, the knock-out mechanism would have been triggered the next day. Next Monday is the futures settlement day for Hong Kong stocks. Experience suggests that continuous declines often occur before this day, increasing the likelihood of an upward rebound and a short squeeze on the settlement day. If it really rebounds back up to 23,200 or higher levels..."
datetime: "2026-06-26T09:02:38.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42234017.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42234017.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42234017.md)
author: "[孫子的末代傳人](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/5724230.md)"
---

# Desperate Hong Kong Stocks vs. Cunning U.S. Stocks: June 22-25 Review

Happy belated Father's Day to everyone. We, who wore basketball jerseys instead of football jerseys for the World Cup, can also be considered a pair of eccentric father and son.

The Hang Seng Index remains in a clear downtrend. Fortunately, on Monday, we immediately took profits from the profitable bull warrants, otherwise, the knock-out mechanism would have been triggered the next day. Next Monday is the futures settlement day for Hong Kong stocks. Experience suggests that continuous declines often occur before this day, increasing the possibility of an upward rebound and short squeeze on the settlement day. If it truly rebounds back to 23,200 or higher levels, watch for short-term long position deployment opportunities $HSI SG 82 Bull Y.C (60009.HK)$ . Conversely, if it falls below 23,000 points again tomorrow, there's a chance of very short-term rapid decline $HSI SG 94 Bear Q.P (64138.HK)$ , with the defensive level at 23,100.

Tech giants continue their downtrend. $Alibaba(BABA.US) $Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$ $Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK)$ $Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)$ $Trip.com Group-S (09961.HK)$ $Meituan-W (03690.HK)$ are still in very typical downtrends; this kind of continuous decline lasts until an ultimate exhaustion drop. We need to see if July will bring a real rebound for a possible short-term stop to the decline. However, if there is a rebound, Tencent's rebound strength should be the strongest $Tencent SG June Call C.C (29978.HK)$ , while Alibaba will be among the lagging group $Alibaba SG June Call E.C (13814.HK)$ .

The IPO market remains very hot. $Xin Qi Wei Zhuang (09630.HK)$ grey market has already turned green. Due to its PCB sector concept, it has a high chance of continuing to attract funds. $Zhong Ke Wen Ge (01956.HK)$ grey market surged crazily to 94%, closely watch if it can stay above the major psychological barrier of 100 at tomorrow's open. $Sheng Bang Gu Fen (03661.HK)$ grey market also rose over 24%. As it's often a top performer among mainland companies, its fundamentals are worth anticipating. $Ling Yi Zhi Zao (01688.HK)$ had the smallest grey market gain, because its business is not related to the hottest AI and semiconductor industry chains recently.

The Nasdaq Index continues to hover at high levels. It needs to quickly recover the lost ground at 30,000 points to confirm it can move up again. As long as it regains above 30,200 on any day, there's a high chance it can start another uptrend $CSOP 2x Long Nasdaq 100 Daily (07266.HK)$ .

Today, the entire market was stimulated by $Micron Tech(MU.US) 's very strong earnings. All storage-related stocks saw significant gains $CSOP 2x Long SK Hynix Daily (07709.HK)$ $CSOP 2x Long Samsung Electronics Daily (07747.HK)$ . Earnings show that demand for memory chips remains very strong, with a high probability of remaining extremely scarce until 2027. The Korean stock market clearly benefited from this $CSOP KOSPI 200 (03121.HK)$ .

This situation, however, caused $Apple(AAPL.US) 's stock price to plunge sharply, because for the first time, Apple significantly raised prices of its products due to a substantial increase in storage cost pressure. Now, the capital flow pattern clearly shows an outflow from the traditional "Magnificent Seven" $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) . The reason is that they are the "AI victims" this time: they either have to continuously increase AI spending to maintain competitiveness, or their profits are affected by rising costs. Closely watch related hedges $CSOP 2x Short Tesla Daily (07366.HK)$ $CSOP 2x Short NVIDIA Daily (07388.HK)$ .

Positions and Transactions  
After closing the GBP short position for profit, we briefly reversed to long, and then also took profits at high levels.

$CSOP China H-Share Covered (02802.HK)$ has fallen to a major support level. Therefore, based on my high-dividend ETF strategy: invest in batches, hold persistently and slowly, with the primary goal of collecting interest in a very long-term manner. If the timeframe is significantly extended, price fluctuations are only temporary.

After GBP, we deployed a EUR short position, which was fully closed for profit on June 24th.

We deployed a long position in 10-year government bonds. There's a relatively high chance that the 10-year international yield may reverse and move upwards. This is set by smart money preparing in advance for potential economic black swan events that may occur later.

Reflection  
Recently saw a video about a trader using very tight stop-losses for trading operations, with a win rate of only around 25%. Our intuition would normally think such an operation must be a failure, but after an accountant's review, the results showed a high triple-digit annual return. The key secret lies in the extreme skew of his profit/loss ratio: average profit as high as 14%, but average loss only 2%; in other words, a profit/loss ratio of up to seven times. Under these circumstances, even with a win rate below 30%, the long-term return is a positive expected value. This story deeply inspires us that the profit/loss ratio is more important than the win rate, and stop-losses must be strict enough.

Reflection  
Bitcoin's trend has fallen below 60,000 again. Related concept stocks all fell across the board $Coinbase(COIN.US) $Strategy(MSTR.US) . The chance of stock prices falling again has significantly increased for now $CSOP 2x Short Coinbase Daily (07311.HK)$ $CSOP 2x Short MSTR Daily (07399.HK)$ .

On the other hand, $Gold Futures Main (2608) (GCmain.US)$ gold finally found clear support at the 4000 level and rebounded. It's worth watching if it can use this momentum to rebound to the important 4400 level. Closely watch for deployment of $Gold SG June Call A.C (11099.HK)$ $Gold SG June Call C.C (11124.HK)$ . The latter is closer to the knock-out price, so if it reaches the price later, its explosive power is the strongest. Silver also has a chance to rebound, with the core key level at the 60 major barrier $Silver SG June Call A.C (11125.HK)$ $Silver SG June Call A.C (11127.HK)$ .

For Hong Kong stocks, continue to closely watch the trends in the AI and semiconductor "boss" sectors. $Kingboard Laminates (01888.HK)$ $Zhipu (02513.HK)$ continue to move upwards along the strongest 10-day and 5-day moving averages; this also becomes the most important core defensive support. Among them, I focus on the trend development of $Lenovo Group (00992.HK)$ , as it's an enterprise with low valuation, high growth, and a strong moat. The only issue is that tonight, $Dell Tech(DELL.US) had a relatively deep pullback. Watch if it will affect Lenovo's trend tomorrow.

For US stocks, as indices have turned green again upwards, market sentiment continues to improve. Besides storage chip $Sandisk(SNDK.US) continuing its strong upward trend, $Intel(INTC.US) also saw a breakout. However, after breaking the key point of 130, it pulled back again. In the future, it must stabilize above 138 again to confirm a new uptrend.

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## Comments (1)

- **HydraZen · 2026-06-26T09:21:56.000Z**: The scene is so heartwarming.