--- type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42260108.md" description: "Last weekend was the Dragon Boat Festival, and I specifically posted a thread. My concerns about this week were basically accurate.1. 7500 retraced to a low of 7294.2. June's monthly candlestick closed negative (as long as Monday and Tuesday don't exceed 7620, it will definitely be a negative candle).If you noticed and left on Monday, then this week presented a very good bottom-fishing opportunity to make money.Standing on this Sunday, talking about my feelings for next week and the second half of the year:1. I'm bullish on US stocks in the long term, AI will definitely win. Any major drop is just a correction, the future will definitely get better and better.2. Volatility in the second half will exceed June's. The broad market is unlikely to see the one-sided rally of April-June. After funds finish adjusting their positions next Monday and Tuesday, there's a possibility of a rise around the July 4th Independence Day holiday.3. 7620 probably isn't the highest point for the second half, but the upside from 7620 is limited. The reason is the seven giants' capital expenditure is too high, they can't pull up the broad market.4. Clear out the miscellaneous small stocks, clear out unprofitable companies. These past few months saw a broad rally, all sorts of weird stocks have surged. In the second half, these stocks could easily be halved. Unwind leverage, switch to regular shares, only keep about sixty to seventy thousand dollars worth of options on the seven giants.5. Can't be all tech stocks, need to do some defense, like healthcare, insurance, banking, consumer staples, etc.6. There might be a new high in the second half along with possibly a deep drop. Reasons: strengthening rate hike expectations, tech stock valuation compression, midterm election political turbulence. Back in 2022, I didn't believe the hype, initially it was just protective rate hikes, I didn't pay attention. Later, the stupid Fed raised rates multiple times in a short period, trapping me all at once. Daily crashes, couldn't bear to cut losses, got trapped deeper and deeper. Being careful is not wrong.7. Let's talk about storage.Most people who made money this year played storage and optical communication. If you didn't play, I don't believe you made a lot. This situation is very abnormal in US stock history. Judging from the recent spat between Apple and Micron, the conflict between the two is very deep. The giants are running out of money and will eventually slow down capital expenditure, if not this year then next. Even Microsoft is looking for cheaper models. Plus, ChangXin is set to enter the game in 2028, Chinese people are number one at stirring things up. So seize the opportunity to make money while these news haven't fully come out. Any unfavorable news released will cause an immediate correction because expectations are too high. After that, it will be volatile upward movement. Actually not suitable for newbies, especially those using leverage. The biggest characteristic of newbies is believing things only halfway, one negative candle changes their faith. Only a few steadfast ones can capture the full storage play in the second half.8. Gradually concentrate positions in SPY, QQQ, keep cash, become conservative, have money to buy on big dips. Dumb person investing, safe and sound." datetime: "2026-06-27T11:12:07.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42260108.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42260108.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42260108.md) author: "[钢铁纪律](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/13301109.md)" --- # Last weekend was the Dragon Boat Festival, and I s… ### Related Stocks - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [SQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SQQQ.US.md) - [PSQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSQ.US.md) - [AAPL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [AAPB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPB.US.md) - [AAPD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPD.US.md) - [AAPU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPU.US.md) - [AAPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPX.US.md) - [AAPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPY.US.md) - [APLY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/APLY.US.md) - [MSFL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFL.US.md) - [MSFO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFO.US.md) - [MSFD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFD.US.md) - [MSFU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFU.US.md) - [MSFX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFX.US.md) - [MSFY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFY.US.md) ## Comments (51) - **复利践行者 · 2026-06-28T08:23:26.000Z**: I've stopped buying and saved some cash waiting for an opportunity. - **發條技師 · 2026-06-28T06:40:33.000Z**: What are your thoughts on dram? - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-28T07:20:37.000Z): I don't have any views. I'm just deleveraging, controlling my position, protecting profits, and reducing risk. - **顺心财来 · 2026-06-28T05:30:50.000Z**: Boss, with this news out, can we bottom-fish S&P 500 and QQQ on Monday? - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-28T07:19:56.000Z): Buying the dip during a big drop is definitely not wrong, but there's a lot of volatility in July and August, with CPI and other factors in July. If there's an interest rate hike, times will be tough. - **Kerry Yee · 2026-06-28T03:21:51.000Z**: Hope it continues to fall next week, falling all the way. - **花街狼 · 2026-06-28T02:49:24.000Z**: Gangzi, Ruanzi really skyrocketed - **deville · 2026-06-28T00:57:47.000Z · 👍 1**: Only play Micron, ignore the rest! - **安森 · 2026-06-28T00:30:40.000Z**: Bro, if funds are limited, should I buy Google or Microsoft among the "Seven Sisters" now? Also, are you bullish on Intel? - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-28T02:23:27.000Z): With limited funds, I suggest you take a break for a while. - **安森** (2026-06-28T02:24:23.000Z): It's fine, you can tinker with it a bit. - **哎呀呀哎呀呀 · 2026-06-27T13:51:32.000Z**: SK Hynix has a chance on 7.10, right? - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-27T14:20:37.000Z): Still holding. If it plummets, I have money to average down. That's roughly the situation. However, the Micron-Apple incident affects the entire storage narrative. - **a8君** (2026-06-27T15:08:55.000Z): I'm thinking about this matter of them bickering with each other. If Apple really cuts orders, or applies to the government to buy CX, it would be negative for the storage sectors in South Korea and t - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-27T15:22:02.000Z): Micron's biggest problem is that it has already priced in an 86% gross margin. It's impossible to do better in the next earnings report. If it does even better, I'd suspect data fraud. Micron has a lo - **子尤1003 · 2026-06-27T13:22:39.000Z**: I'm trapped in GOOGL for over 30 points. Is the option expiring early next year dangerous? - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-27T14:21:17.000Z): I'm down 28%, which is still okay. For Microsoft, I was down as much as 50%, but it recovered in one night, and now I'm only down 12%. - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-27T14:21:52.000Z): If you're worried about options, I actually don't recommend doing them. Holding the underlying stock is more appropriate. Google won't rise until around the earnings report; it's going to fall for a l - **子尤1003** (2026-06-27T14:22:55.000Z): It's so weak. I still want to break even and buy something else. - **聚宝长桥 · 2026-06-27T13:06:13.000Z**: What does it mean to leave on Monday? - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-27T13:09:59.000Z): As mentioned last week, this Monday - **大司马桓温 · 2026-06-27T13:04:52.000Z**: Brother Gang, has your view on the overall rise of storage and the broader market in July-August changed? - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-27T13:09:35.000Z): No, but remove the leverage. - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-27T13:10:41.000Z): It was a big drop, and after falling deep, it slowly pulled back up. - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-27T13:10:51.000Z): There will still be a drop next week. - **uRock · 2026-06-27T12:29:42.000Z**: Received. - **发发发发发发发发 · 2026-06-27T12:16:38.000Z**: Boss, what's your take on Novo Nordisk? Can we start buying slowly now? - **Lyv · 2026-06-27T12:15:17.000Z**: Thanks for sharing, Brother Steel! - **徐老师20 · 2026-06-27T11:49:19.000Z**: Midterm elections, interest rate hike expectations, inflation—these could all be potential pitfalls. Allocate positions reasonably. It still feels like a bull market for individual stocks, with the broader market experiencing huge volatility. - **moon · 2026-06-27T11:47:47.000Z**: For new funds, is it recommended to buy VOO or QQQI? - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-27T11:54:27.000Z): VOO+QQQ - **大西北的汉子 · 2026-06-27T11:27:20.000Z**: Looking at it this way, even the A-share market needs to consider defensive sectors. Technology stocks will rise and fall together. - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-27T11:36:38.000Z): Yes - **大鹅要有纪律** (2026-06-27T12:36:34.000Z): What are the defensive sectors for A? Banks. - **钢铁纪律** (2026-06-27T12:42:28.000Z): Reverse Repo - **三年级二班长 · 2026-06-27T11:16:19.000Z**: Thanks for sharing, bro 🙏 - **大鹅要有纪律 · 2026-06-27T11:16:17.000Z · 👍 4**: This is truly heartfelt advice given step by step. In this day and age, there are still people patiently telling you to invest in broad-based indices plus the "Seven Sisters"... What a conscientious blogger. Also, I think two more could be added: one is the ETF category, like DRAM, and the o - **Allen.liu** (2026-06-27T11:22:46.000Z): I've been holding TSMC and Intel all along