---
title: "OpenAI delays its IPO, has the AI bubble really reached a tipping point?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42275055.md"
description: "The most discussed topic in the market recently is not NVIDIA, nor Micron, but a piece of news that seems to belong to the primary market—OpenAI delaying its IPO. Many people's first reaction is: Is the AI bubble about to burst? But I think what's really worth pondering is not the delay of the IPO itself, but the signal it sends: the capital market is starting to re-evaluate the valuation system for AI. Over the past two years, AI has been one of the most certain main themes in the global capital market. From GPUs and HBM to cloud computing and data centers, as long as it's related to AI..."
datetime: "2026-06-29T08:23:16.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42275055.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42275055.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42275055.md)
author: "[Zachary_1](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/24810998.md)"
---

# OpenAI delays its IPO, has the AI bubble really reached a tipping point?

Recently, the most discussed topic in the market is not NVIDIA, nor Micron, but a piece of news that seems to belong to the primary market — **OpenAI delaying its IPO**.

Many people's first reaction is: Is the AI bubble about to burst?

But I think what's truly worth pondering is not the IPO delay itself, but the signal it sends: **the capital market is starting to re-evaluate the AI valuation system.**

Over the past two years, AI has been one of the most certain themes in the global capital market. From GPUs, HBM, to cloud computing and data centers, as long as it's related to AI, the market has almost always been willing to grant a higher valuation premium.

However, when the primary market starts to slow down its financing and listing pace, a question naturally arises for all investors:

**AI demand hasn't changed, but will AI valuation start to change?**

## I. What OpenAI Faces is Not a Demand Issue, but a Business Model Validation

From a commercial company's perspective, OpenAI is actually facing a typical growth-stage enterprise dilemma:

On one hand, it needs to continuously invest huge amounts of capital to purchase computing power, train models, and build infrastructure;

On the other hand, it must quickly convert these investments into stable commercial revenue.

The biggest characteristic of the AI industry is investing first, realizing returns later.

When demand is growing rapidly, this model is fine because capital is willing to pay for the future.

But when the financing environment becomes more rational, and investors start focusing on cash flow and return on investment, the market's focus shifts:

**It's not about whether there is AI demand, but whether AI can make money.**

This is also why the change in the primary market's pace has attracted so much attention.

## II. Why Would a Company That's Not Yet Listed Affect the Entire AI Sector?

Many investors might find it strange:

OpenAI isn't even listed, so why would its IPO delay affect even chip stocks?

The reason is actually quite simple.

Over the past few years, the entire AI industry chain has formed a very complete logical chain:

Large model companies like OpenAI continuously raise funds;

After fundraising, they purchase GPUs, HBM, high-speed networking, and cloud computing power on a large scale;

Chip manufacturers, memory manufacturers, and server manufacturers receive orders;

The secondary market accordingly gives the entire AI industry chain a higher valuation.

In other words, continuous fundraising in the primary market is itself a major source of demand for the entire industry chain.

Therefore, when the market starts to worry about a slowdown in primary market fundraising, investors naturally start to think:

Will future AI infrastructure investment also slow down?

What's really being impacted is not today's orders, but the expectation for order growth in the coming years.

## III. What the Market Really Needs to Distinguish is: 'AI Demand' vs. 'AI Valuation'

I believe these are the two concepts most easily confused in the current market.

Has AI demand disappeared?

From the current perspective, it hasn't.

Whether it's the capital expenditure of cloud providers or enterprise investment in generative AI, it's still maintained at a relatively high level.

What has really changed is valuation.

In the past, the market was willing to price AI companies based on very high growth expectations;

Now, investors are starting to demand clearer profit paths, more definite cash flows, and more reasonable input-output efficiency.

This means:

**The demand logic remains, but the valuation logic is switching.**

The past was about who invested more;

The future might be about who can realize profits faster.

## IV. Is the AI Rally Over?

Personally, I don't think so.

If we review past technology industry cycles, whether it's the internet, cloud computing, or new energy, they all went through the same process:

The industry trend continues upward;

But the capital market constantly adjusts its valuation rhythm.

AI will be no exception.

What's truly worth paying attention to is not whether a company delays its IPO, but whether, in the coming quarters, AI infrastructure investment can still maintain growth, enterprise-level applications can continue to improve commercialization efficiency, and whether capital expenditure can ultimately be converted into profits and cash flow.

These are what will determine whether the AI rally can go further.

## My Observations

At this point in time, I'd rather interpret this event as a **valuation reassessment**, not a reversal of the industry trend.

In the near future, I will focus on tracking three directions:

First, whether global cloud provider capital expenditure continues to grow;

Second, the order fulfillment situation of AI infrastructure (GPU, HBM, networking equipment);

Third, whether the commercialization progress of the AI application layer can support the current valuation level.

For investors, the question that really needs to be answered is no longer "Does AI have a future?" but:

**Which companies can truly transform the massive investment in AI into sustainable profitability.**

This might be the most important theme for the next stage of AI investment.

**Finally, I'd like to discuss a question with everyone:**

If AI demand continues to grow over the next year, but the capital market starts to collectively downgrade the valuation of the AI sector, which do you think will truly be able to navigate this round of valuation restructuring: the computing power leaders or the application leaders?

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Apple(AAPL.US)

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## Comments (2)

- **deville · 2026-06-29T10:59:10.000Z**: openai 落后了
- **丁真！寄 · 2026-06-29T09:32:26.000Z · 👍 1**: The suspension of U.S. data center construction has been called for, with the scale of suspended funds reaching $130 billion.