---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42359803.md"
description: "This post is purely speculative.1 Short-term trend: Institutions are deliberately setting traps for retail investors.1) The end-of-month portfolio rebalancing that started around the Dragon Boat Festival didn't wait until the end of the month; right after the festival, they started pumping and then dumping, catching everyone off guard.2) On Monday and Tuesday this week, the last two days of the month, everyone expected a drop, but it didn't happen. Instead, they started pushing the market up, causing many to clear their positions early. Seeing the rally, they were forced to chase the rally on Tuesday, for example, chasing storage stocks.3) On Wednesday, they used the META news to suddenly crash the market, trapping those who chased storage stocks, forcing them to cut losses. At the same time, they pumped stocks like META, MSFT, TSLA, PLTR that had been suppressed for over a month (the big players had already built their positions), forcing people to chase rallies later.4) What about today? The last trading day before Independence Day.2 On the news front, Micron donated money to Donald Trump, letting him talk it up to see how the stock price reacts.3 The bad part is: capital hasn't left the US stock market; it has just rotated to other sectors. Even with hardware getting hammered, the broader market hasn't fallen much. This means the big money is now taking profits at highs. Many stocks have experienced non-fundamental stampedes. Combined with points 1)-4) above, this is essentially a trap for short-term retail traders. Because short-term traders are definitely losing money. As long as you play the short-term game, the big players have plenty of tricks, determined by psychology and algorithms.4 My strategy is not to rush into bottom-fishing. I'm spacing out my bottom-fishing buys. The downside is that the first and second batches of capital deployed are easily trapped, but the upside is they won't be trapped too deep, though I might miss out on some sudden rallies and earn less later.However, because I positioned at lows in giants, including Tesla, Microsoft, Google, which have risen quite a bit recently, it's still okay.Observing, especially the SOXX trend to judge capital flows. Hardware has risen so much; if it crashes in July/August, I worry many won't be pessimistic enough or cut losses, and it won't stop."
datetime: "2026-07-01T23:40:52.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42359803.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42359803.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42359803.md)
author: "[钢铁纪律](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/13301109.md)"
---

# This post is purely speculative.1 Short-term trend…


### Related Stocks

- [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md)
- [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md)
- [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md)
- [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md)
- [META.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/META.US.md)
- [PLTR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PLTR.US.md)
- [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md)
- [SOXX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXX.US.md)

## Comments (19)

- **学会价值投资 · 2026-07-02T11:26:42.000Z**: What stocks are good to buy now? Getting ready to open a position.
  - **钢铁纪律** (2026-07-02T11:28:20.000Z): Buy what you understand.
- **リムル · 2026-07-02T03:09:18.000Z**: It's all ghost stories. No major company has said they will cut spending. It's just market makers dumping shares.
- **敏敏M · 2026-07-02T02:39:23.000Z**: I often read your posts. I'm not as panicked now. I added a little bit of SanDisk and Micron last night because when they surged on Monday, I only did a T+0 trade to free up funds with 1/3 of my SanDisk position, so I didn't have much liquidity to average down. I also kept some funds hoping to add a
  - **钢铁纪律** (2026-07-02T02:44:53.000Z): I can't tell fortunes... If I had this ability, I could make all the money in the world. I just stick to my own logic and only look at the fundamentals.
- **跟顾神反着买 · 2026-07-02T00:59:23.000Z**: The Magnificent 7 have been rising for a month, huh? 🤔
  - **钢铁纪律** (2026-07-02T01:13:47.000Z): Where are the stocks that keep rising? It's a volatile market now, aren't they all roller coasters? Tug-of-war.
- **敏敏M · 2026-07-02T00:47:54.000Z**: After this round of slaughter in the storage sector, can SanDisk still be expected to rise to 2300? It sounds like it has been analyzed for a long time and can't go up?
  - **钢铁纪律** (2026-07-02T00:52:23.000Z): Those who are always cut out are the skeptical ones, because these people don't look at fundamentals; they trade based on stock prices. A big rally recharges their faith, while a big crash shatters it
  - **敏敏M** (2026-07-02T01:14:33.000Z): Because storage has surged too much in the past six months, is the stock price too high and deviating from fundamental valuations? Feeling a bit panicked.
  - **钢铁纪律** (2026-07-02T01:20:14.000Z): There's absolutely no problem with the fundamentals.
- **Lucky2026 · 2026-07-02T00:38:30.000Z**: Thanks, bro. What's a good price to add some more?
- **小兔蹦蹦 · 2026-07-02T00:16:25.000Z**: Savings are out of money to add to positions again🥹
- **Lucky2026 · 2026-07-02T00:04:32.000Z**: Bro, why does NVIDIA always fall?
  - **钢铁纪律** (2026-07-02T00:09:06.000Z): It's very stable, it's just 190.
  - **钢铁纪律** (2026-07-02T00:09:38.000Z): Falling is a good thing; it will only rise after falling for a long time and falling a lot.
  - **交易员阿瓜** (2026-07-02T01:41:34.000Z): Bro, how many layers of position does the old man have in the underlying stock?