--- title: "美股实盘：搅 * 棍助力 AI 降温（20260705）" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42426171.md" description: "综述：本周标普 500 指数 上涨 1.76%，我的实盘净值 下跌 7.54%。2026 年内标普 500 指数 上涨 9.32%，2026 年内我的实盘净值 上涨 99.76%（年初净值为 2.20，本周净值 4.39）。交易：清仓 NVDA，买入等额 BE 卖出一半 GLW，买入等额美债持仓：SNDK 33.4%，MRVL 7.8%，LITE 8.1%，BE 10.0%，NEM 11.6%..." datetime: "2026-07-05T05:31:34.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42426171.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42426171.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42426171.md) author: "[京城Z先生](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/9198235.md)" --- # 美股实盘：搅 * 棍助力 AI 降温（20260705） **综述：** 本周标普 500 指数 上涨 1.76%，我的实盘净值 下跌 7.54%。 2026 年内标普 500 指数 上涨 9.32%，2026 年内我的实盘净值 上涨 99.76%（年初净值为 2.20，本周净值 4.39）。 ![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/a11aa66dde59134caf05a7f8725f1ecd?x-oss-process=style/lg) **交易：** 清仓 NVDA，买入等额 BE 卖出一半 GLW，买入等额美债 **持仓：** SNDK 33.4%，MRVL 7.8%，LITE 8.1%，BE 10.0%，NEM 11.6%，GLW 6.6%，NOK 6.8%，现金/美债 15.6%。 有四舍五入，且一般不记录低于 1% 的迷你仓和短线投机操作。 **复盘：** 先说交易，进行了两笔调仓。nvda 切 be 上周已经暗示过了，就是短期赔率上的考虑，be 因为指数调仓引发的超跌，我认为性价比更高，这只之前本来是我的重仓股，趁着近期的大幅回调就接回来了，当然英伟达后续还是倾向也买回来的，看看再说。减仓 glw 和之前减仓 mrvl 的逻辑一样，属于到估值表卖点附近了，为了防止卖飞无脑砍半锁定利润，留半仓避免出现之前卖飞 be 接不回来的尴尬。 尽管这两笔操作都是赚的，但仍然没能阻止我的账户连续第二周回调，而且是大幅下修，主要原因还是之前涨得猛的这些 AI 基建板块个股，短期都涨得比较猛了，然后美股知名搅屎棍 META，突然放出准备出租算力的新闻，市场遂借坡下驴，直接以最惊悚的鬼故事 AI 讲不下去了资本开支要大砍来引发全球暴跌，可看过新闻原文都知道，实际上是 META 自己模型太拉没人用，别人都缺的东西它花不完，只能被迫把中低端算力弄出去降点成本。 而更无语的是，等美股放假关门了，META 又爆出正在考虑委托三星生产价值 10 亿韩元的定制芯片。好嘛，正反话都让你一家说了，下周先来个高开？ \--- **个股方面，** 1、科技：NVDA/GOOG 本周虽然 AI 基建大跌，但大盘指数却都是涨的，跷跷板效应，小妹不能崩老头了就跌，老头能不被蹦了就涨。 长期看这都是小插曲，接下来的长线剧本，肯定还是想办法继续梭哈，因为没人敢停下，一旦被 AI 淘汰可比短期花点钱卷 AI 的损失大，目前来看 M7 里 META 是明显的掉队了，所以扎克很急。 据报道，OpenAI 已将 IPO 推迟到 2027 年。据称，公司目前的财务状况太差，投资者难以接受其高达 1 万亿美元的估值。公司的顾问曾建议下调估值，但 Sam Altman 坚持认为，1 万亿美元是绝对不能让步的底线。推迟是好事，最好明年再推到后年，不然短期内连续上三个巨无霸，其他板块容易被吸干，没那么多钱给这些动不动万亿市值的公司。 2、存储：SNDK/MU 韩国两则重磅消息： 今天三星也计划在 Q3 将 DRAM 价格上调 20% ，再苦一苦电子消费品公司吧，未来可能会更苦，巨头们生产的东西留给碳基的越来越少，碳基有能力消费的也越来越少。   SK 海力士 ADR 目前暂定于 2026 年 7 月 10 日在美国纳斯达克挂牌并开始交易，也就是下周了。此时下周应该能引发存储板块大幅修复，不过需要预计的是，海外巨头美股上市，往往也是阶段性高点的信号，因为那天冲高第二天回本国股市拉高套利结账的剧本，可是经常上演的。 美股这边特师傅继续喊单美光，除了自己发的空气币外，他在股市里喊的单基本都能让人赚钱，信不信各位随意。 3、光通信：LITE/MRVL/GLW/NOK 近期承压的板块，主要原因其实就是涨多了，再加上此前预期非常高的 CPO 延期，打掉了很大一部分溢价，所以需要继续熬一熬。光通信的王者大都在 A 股，但 CPO 作为长线未来形态，长期看肯定还是差不了的，但中短期没有技术突破的前提下，没故事可讲，而且还是业绩真空期，大家大眼瞪小眼。 4、金属：GLD/NEM 千呼万唤始出来，沃什终于出来发言了，偏鸽，三次加息的鬼故事彻底终结，但是考虑到 6 月降息早没了，9 月降息他也没讲，所以目前只能算中性的今年内可能降息，有色板块可以赢得少量呼吸权了，后市继续小幅看多，起码不能跑输美债，有一定修复空间。 5、电力：BE 虽然被剔除了罗素 2000 的群聊，但本周正式加入罗素 Top200 的新群，这就是成长的代价，股价修复了不少，估值仍然不便宜，但是考虑到美国电力的稀缺性甚至比肩存储，还是选择继续高看一眼吧，但该股波动非常剧烈，和我从去年拿过来的都应该有感受，慎抄。   6、下周计划 躺为先。 \--- 最后，估值表： ![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/d08e35849a2230a42e2c13d18be56647?x-oss-process=style/lg) **注释（请一定阅读）：** 1、上图的点位均为本人通过特定的方式计算，不代表一定能精确且能触达，只是辅助参考作用。 2、一个点位有 2 个值，则代表该区间的上下限，用哪个取决于本人的主观意愿和对公司的了解程度。 3、标蓝标红都是为了给自己警示，该股票到达买入/卖出区域附近，需要重点关注，但不代表我一定会执行。 4、表格内相关数字，会随我个人对公司基本面的动态评估，不定期调整，请勿作为长期参考。 5、以上表格内容均为本人实盘记录，是做给我自己看的，无法指导你们的交易，问就是别买/赶紧割。 ### Related Stocks - [BE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BE.US.md) - [NOK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NOK.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [META.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/META.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [SNDK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNDK.US.md) - [GLW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLW.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [NEM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NEM.US.md) - [MRVL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MRVL.US.md) - [SSNGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSNGY.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [LITE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LITE.US.md) - [TLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TLT.US.md) - [TMF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TMF.US.md) - [OpenAI.NA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OpenAI.NA.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [GOOGN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGN.US.md) ## Comments (57) - **再玩中概和垃圾不是人 · 2026-07-10T08:06:13.000Z**: It's been tough to play recently. - **富叉叉 · 2026-07-06T14:11:34.000Z**: be is too amazing, it skyrocketed right after I bought it? - **蓝酱 · 2026-07-06T11:31:02.000Z**: To be honest, can storage prices rise infinitely and then drive up the stock price? - **新用户_223Aa · 2026-07-06T04:43:17.000Z · 👍 2**: Changfei is unstoppable, dropping 20% every day is really impressive - **你还年轻，三千万不够** (2026-07-06T06:15:55.000Z): Just hang in there, what else can we do? An 11% loss is acceptable for now. If things go well, it could recover in a day. - **爱自己是最好的开始** (2026-07-07T08:36:05.000Z): Then you're lucky, I already know 30% - **你还年轻，三千万不够** (2026-07-07T08:39:50.000Z): It's up 20% today. - **你还年轻，三千万不够 · 2026-07-06T04:11:56.000Z**: My bro, what do you think about Hong Kong stocks? - **Rhythmvirtuoso · 2026-07-06T01:27:24.000Z**: Sold Marvell's 270115 put options with a strike price of 135. Two plans: either take delivery at 135, or pocket the premium for free. - **坚持不上班！30就退 · 2026-07-06T00:56:21.000Z**: 😂Came back from lying flat and realized I've been on a rollercoaster ride🤣Heartache, settling accounts based on valuation is the real deal. - **敏敏M · 2026-07-05T22:48:07.000Z**: Should both SanDisk and Micron be sold? Is the storage sector in a bubble? Can it still surge this week? - **止损不止盈** (2026-07-05T23:32:57.000Z): How do you view this article? 😂 - **不要频繁浇花** (2026-07-06T01:49:21.000Z): It's over. - **colorwei · 2026-07-05T14:57:05.000Z · 👍 1**: Z bro, SanDisk is still your largest holding, not selling? - **xx是为了回本 · 2026-07-05T13:19:45.000Z**: It's not far from the ideal buy point of 1464. - **芥末虾球 · 2026-07-05T08:06:06.000Z · 👍 1**: Z, which day is your live stream? I remember you mentioned it before, you have a live stream coming up recently. - **京城Z先生** (2026-07-05T08:37:08.000Z): Thursday - **nzy** (2026-07-05T13:35:17.000Z): Where to watch - **京城Z先生** (2026-07-05T13:47:37.000Z): The link will be posted on the official account on Thursday morning, and it will start around 4:30 PM. - **晴儿2025 · 2026-07-05T07:44:46.000Z**: Very good - **卖卖空调来补仓 · 2026-07-05T07:23:28.000Z**: Why did you sell Micron, Mr. Z? Are you worried about the impact of SK Hynix's listing? - **京城Z先生** (2026-07-05T07:43:36.000Z): The brand I've been buying is SanDisk - **大司马桓温 · 2026-07-05T07:17:19.000Z**: Teacher, is storage still bullish in July and August? - **京城Z先生** (2026-07-05T07:18:27.000Z): 🈹 - **不要频繁浇花** (2026-07-06T01:49:09.000Z): Hahahahahahahahaha, if you ask, it's just cutting losses. 🈹 - **一个人的江湖 · 2026-07-05T07:12:47.000Z · 👍 1**: One word: lie down! Two words: travel! Four words: travel with kids - **京城Z先生** (2026-07-05T07:18:44.000Z): Traveling with kids is exhausting. - **一个人的江湖** (2026-07-05T07:38:07.000Z): I really feel the same way! Mainly, I want to go out and see the world😎 - **京城Z先生** (2026-07-05T07:43:00.000Z): Traveling alone, then going home and tripling down on long positions is better for taking care of the kids.😂 - **sunny0216 · 2026-07-05T06:29:43.000Z**: 7709 is about to surge and close the position, thanks, sir 😄 - **京城Z先生** (2026-07-05T06:55:33.000Z): The premium of 7709 might be killed due to the ADR listing. - **sunny0216** (2026-07-05T07:00:05.000Z): On Friday, the premium was already wiped out in one round. I sold half at the previous high point. Fortunately, the cost basis is low. I plan to clear the position at a high price in the next couple o - **唯利是图 · 2026-07-05T06:21:47.000Z · 👍 3**: Continue to lie flat and get rich, wait for a storage peak to sell half of the Micron shares, then wait for a pullback low to switch to SanDisk - **京城Z先生** (2026-07-05T06:55:53.000Z): Ideals are plump - **唯利是图** (2026-07-05T06:58:02.000Z): Wait for a good price to sell, then buy back when the timing is right. - **吃鲨鱼的人** (2026-07-05T07:12:12.000Z): Didn't get into SanDisk at 1700 two days ago? I bought at 1800. - **与未来 · 2026-07-05T05:41:32.000Z · 👍 5**: Even without Meta, there will be other events, just like Citron Research, it's just missing a reason to take profits. - **京城Z先生** (2026-07-05T05:56:40.000Z): Yes, we need a reason for a pullback. - **季坤方-Rich · 2026-07-05T05:33:35.000Z · 👍 1**: After the adjustment, it continues to rise. - **京城Z先生** (2026-07-05T05:56:32.000Z): It probably won't rise immediately, I'm leaning towards seeing you in August. - **三思又三思** (2026-07-05T06:01:49.000Z): The stock should rebound, not sure about a new high - **不断学习，不断进步。** (2026-07-05T06:45:41.000Z): Z, does the optical module sector also tend to wait for the giants' earnings reports to confirm Capex spending before a clear direction emerges?