---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42431501.md"
description: "Bitcoin hit 3 on-chain conditions that showed up near every past bear market low since 2015.This is not a "buy now" call of course. It marks the zone where bottoms usually form.The checklist:1. Underwater supply > profitable supply2. Price at 200 week MA ($61.3K)3. Long term holders accumulating againAll 3 are live this week.After prior crossovers:2015: ~12 months in zone2019/2022: ~6 monthsMar 2020: ~1 monthLows often came within weeks, but usually after one final 15 to 26% drop first. This event may not have happened yet. Levels to watch:200W MA: $61.3KRealized price: ~$54KYears horizon: accumulation zone.Weeks horizon: wait for the final leg.Map. Not a buy button."
datetime: "2026-07-06T02:35:53.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42431501.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42431501.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42431501.md)
author: "[First Fellow](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/27399941.md)"
---

# Bitcoin hit 3 on-chain conditions that showed up n…


### Related Stocks

- [GBTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GBTC.US.md)