---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42442979.md"
description: "$NIO Inc(NIO.US) Q2 revenue is highly likely to meet the guidance, while deliveries fell short but revenue may be compensated by high ASP.Judgment: Cautiously optimistic.  Do not directly turn bearish on Nio just because Q2 deliveries were below guidance; the real focus should be on the revenue and gross margin confirmed in the Q2 earnings report.---Data BasisQ2 Actual Deliveries• Data: 107,658 unitsQ2 Delivery Guidance• Data: 110,000–115,000 unitsMet Delivery Guidance?• Data: NoQ2 Revenue Guidance• Data: 32.777–34.436 billion yuanNio Brand June ASP• Data: 443,000 yuanQ1 Nio Brand ASP• Data: 390,000 yuanBased on calculations:Nio Brand Vehicle Sales Revenue• Estimate: ~24.9 billion yuanLedao Vehicle Sales Revenue• Estimate: ~7.0 billion yuanFirefly Vehicle Sales Revenue• Estimate: ~2.1–2.8 billion yuanQ2 Total Vehicle Sales Revenue• Estimate: ~34.0–34.7 billion yuanQ2 Non-Vehicle Sales Revenue• Estimate: ~2.5–3.2 billion yuanQ2 Total Revenue Estimate• Estimate: ~36.5–37.9 billion yuan---Risk ExposureThe core risk is: The ASP calculation may not be fully consistent with the revenue recognized in the financial report.Main risks:1. There are no official monthly ASP figures for the Nio brand in April and May; I used Q1's 390,000 yuan as a proxy.2. The ASP for Ledao and Firefly is estimated; BaaS, battery leasing, and subsidies will affect recognized revenue.3. Q2 deliveries were below guidance, and the market may trade negatively in the short term.4. If the Q2 vehicle gross margin is below 16%, it cannot be optimistic even if revenue meets the target.---Next StepsMy judgment: Q2 revenue is highly likely to exceed the upper end of the guidance, but we need to wait for the earnings report for verification.Focus on 3 numbers:Q2 Total Revenue• Judgment line: ≥34.4 billion yuan is positiveVehicle Gross Margin• Judgment line: ≥18% is strong validationNon-Vehicle Sales Revenue• Judgment line: ≥2.8 billion yuan is normalTrading action: Wait and see.  Only consider it as a mispriced opportunity if the market sells off due to "deliveries below guidance" but the earnings report revenue and gross margin are not bad."
datetime: "2026-07-06T13:33:41.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42442979.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42442979.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42442979.md)
author: "[未来的交易员皮看穿](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/10939.md)"
---

# $NIO Inc(NIO.US) Q2 revenue is highly likely to me…


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## Comments (7)

- **10倍蔚来 · 2026-07-06T13:57:59.000Z**: Q2 gross margin will exceed 19%
- **定投标普20年 · 2026-07-06T13:47:14.000Z**: When will this earnings report come out, mid-August?
  - **未来的交易员皮看穿** (2026-07-06T14:51:36.000Z): Definitely not that late, confident it will be released early.
- **yixin18 · 2026-07-06T13:45:30.000Z**: Charge, rise to eight bucks
- **未来的交易员皮看穿 · 2026-07-06T13:34:11.000Z**: Ma Lin said that the average selling price of Nio's main brand in June was 443,000 yuan, so I had AI calculate it.
  - **开EC6的蔚来股东** (2026-07-06T13:44:47.000Z): We also need to consider how much impact the cost increase will have.
  - **未来的交易员皮看穿** (2026-07-06T13:50:45.000Z): Hmm, not sure if we can achieve three consecutive months of profitability.