---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42713380.md"
description: "TSMC 26Q2 First Take: with the AI market in need of a confidence boost, this print is unlikely to satisfy. As the company discloses monthly ops data, revenue came in at $40.2bn, broadly in line with buy-side expectations (~$40bn).Versus the top line, investors focused on gross margin. GPM was 67.7%, at the top end of guidance but slightly below raised buy-side expectations (some aggressive marks were 69%+).Margins are still on an upward trend, driven by higher utilization and pricing. N5 and below have been running at >100% utilization, while rush orders lifted ASPs, with some orders carrying >50% premiums.With fab loading tight, the company has more incentive to lift capex. Management raised capex to $60-64bn (from the higher end of $52-56bn), well above the Street at $58bn. This implies H2 capex of $33.2-37.2bn (+56%-75% YoY), aligning with ASML’s back-half-weighted revenue outlook.On the outlook, next-quarter revenue is guided to $44.6-45.8bn, with GPM at 65%-67%. Since TSMC provided full-year growth guidance, the importance of next-quarter guidance is reduced. Management lifted the FY revenue growth target to 40% (vs. at least 30% prior), slightly above mainstream expectations (35%+).Overall, the market had hoped for a more dazzling report to inject confidence into the AI supply chain, but the print and outlook did not deliver a big beat. Among the metrics, only capex clearly topped expectations, a relative positive for upstream equipment names such as ASML. For more, stay tuned for Dolphin Research’s follow-up take and transcript highlights. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)"
datetime: "2026-07-16T07:23:35.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42713380.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42713380.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42713380.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/news/dolphin.md)"
---

# TSMC 26Q2 First Take: with the AI market in need o…


### Related Stocks

- [TSM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSM.US.md)

## Comments (24)

- **zealottu · 2026-07-17T03:02:04.000Z**: Just as you analyzed, the market has really become a casino. It's all about betting on significantly exceeding expectations every day. This market is definitely sick. They are genuinely doing solid work, and you come up with this kind of analysis.
- **Virus · 2026-07-16T21:33:51.000Z**: Currently, the market only sees what he wants to express as a lack of explosive growth.
- **山雨 · 2026-07-16T09:47:50.000Z**: Nonsense. This profit margin has once again significantly exceeded expectations. Trying to learn from Samsung?
- **紫电之岚 · 2026-07-16T09:04:55.000Z · 👍 5**: Writing copy like this is like shooting the arrow first and then drawing the target—whatever you say is right.
- **張忠謀是我爺爺 · 2026-07-16T07:54:20.000Z**: Exceeded expectations, greatly exceeded expectations, massively exceeded expectations, massively massively exceeded expectations, when will the market ever give so much🤣
  - **Jenny201207** (2026-07-16T08:09:40.000Z): It's all useless. You see, even though Micron's results were way better than expected, it still fell 📉. I'm bearish now. To put it bluntly, it just wants to fall.
- **徒步墩墩 · 2026-07-16T07:45:37.000Z**: To put it bluntly, exceeding expectations still isn't enough. Significantly exceeding expectations will just turn into the narrative of 'peak performance'.
  - **北海狮子** (2026-07-16T07:52:30.000Z): It's just that Wall Street wants you to fall, no earnings report is useful.
- **风间影月 · 2026-07-16T07:40:00.000Z**: I'm really speechless.
- **纯纯小白 · 2026-07-16T07:38:09.000Z · 👍 3**: It seems that few companies that recently released earnings reports have satisfied the market. It's really difficult to meet market expectations.😂
- **暴富阿佳 · 2026-07-16T07:36:54.000Z · 👍 15**: It makes sense either way you say it, hilarious.
  - **Dolphin Research** (2026-07-16T09:56:23.000Z): I'm objective enough, right..
  - **海淘一块** (2026-07-16T13:04:39.000Z): Following stock price evaluations is objective
  - **EricGo688** (2026-07-17T00:30:53.000Z): Actually, no one even looks at the earnings reports now; Wall Street is just violently correcting.
- **Simon93 · 2026-07-16T07:35:32.000Z · 👍 31**: Dolphin Research just looks at the market reaction each time and talks about whether it meets expectations or not, but tsm's earnings reports have always been down, I really think you guys can't do media like this, ridiculous.
  - **佳昊札记** (2026-07-16T07:40:55.000Z): Well said, it's not very meaningful to be a Monday morning quarterback.
  - **inortate** (2026-07-16T08:20:12.000Z): TSMC's stock price usually closes in the red on the day it releases its earnings report.
  - **Oscar.yw** (2026-07-16T08:31:52.000Z): Yes, as soon as they see the night market start to fall, they say they're not satisfied. I guess if they see the night market doing really well, they'll be eager to start bragging.
- **博良君 · 2026-07-16T07:32:41.000Z · 👍 3**: Isn't the profit still far exceeding expectations?
- **logic_s · 2026-07-16T07:30:00.000Z**: Production capacity is already maxed out, exceeding expectations. Does that mean the market isn't buying it because the price increase isn't enough?
  - **彩子** (2026-07-16T07:33:28.000Z): It has nothing to do with whether you buy into it or not; it's purely a harvesting market.
  - **logic_s** (2026-07-16T07:41:30.000Z): Actually, it's questioning Dolphin's definition of "exceeding expectations," haha