US Stock Market Review for July 20

[Semiconductor sector shrinks volume without worry, GOOG and TSLA earnings opportunities]

The trading volume of the S&P and Nasdaq has shrunk significantly today, with a sideways trend.
The semiconductor sector continues its rebound after hitting support levels on Friday. The trading volume is also insufficient and lacks momentum; the same trend is expected to continue for another two days.
This is because market focus is on the after-hours earnings reports of GOOG and TSLA on Wednesday. Whether it's semiconductors or big tech, new trends will only emerge on Thursday.

Semiconductors
SOXX technical levels remain unchanged
Two support levels: 490-515, 450-465
Rebound resistance: 585. Before breaking through, it could be sold off at any time.

GOOG
Earnings highlights:
Performance is expected to be fine; capital expenditure relates to sentiment in the AI industry.
AI Business: TPU + Gemini + Cloud Computing. Recent staff turnover and delayed model releases mean it is temporarily lagging in the short term but still remains at the top of the industry;
Traditional Business: Search + YouTube, no major issues here either.
Capital Expenditure: CapEx this quarter may exceed expectations. The key is whether they will adjust their full-year guidance.

The probability of a downward adjustment in capEx this time is relatively low:
1. The Gemini + TPU strategy is correct, stock price is developing positively, reaching historical highs, so there isn't much pressure on the company.
2. They have just completed multiple rounds of financing, so cash flow is temporarily safe.
3. It's not until December that the new fiscal year begins, so the probability of a sudden shift during the fiscal year is low.
Post-earnings price movements are unpredictable. The recent trend has stabilized, offering room for both ups and downs. If it falls below 350 later, it remains a long-term opportunity.

TSLA
Last earnings report significantly increased annual capital expenditure to $25 billion, turning cash flow negative.
Compared to the Big Four tech companies, capital expenditure is very small, having little impact on the AI industry. The main focus should be on its own trend.
Technically:
Post-earnings price movements are equally unpredictable. Recently, it has been declining alongside SpaceX. The converging triangle has broken downwards. A pullback to the 314-330 range (as mentioned in March) is a normal trend, and reaching it would also be a good opportunity.