Bolong dropped 20% in a week; are institutions buying Calls at the mark price to bet on earnings?

Last Tuesday, when looking at the out-of-the-money Call for $Bloom Energy(BE.US) at an intraday price of 280, my judgment was: if it breaks below $228 before the earnings report, it indicates that the short-selling report is still fermenting, so I will continue to stay away; if it stabilizes above $250 after the earnings report, I will buy back the fundamental leg in batches. Last Thursday, its stock price had already smashed through $228, and last night it closed around $197; however, there was a notable anomaly during last night's trading session worth discussing: $2.38 million was used to buy Calls with a strike price of $202.5, which were close to the current market price. Entering the position when the price dropped to around $197 in the early session, these were $202.5 Calls expiring on 8/21, totaling 602 contracts, with an average price of $39.60. They were near-the-money, crossing the 7/28 earnings date, and provided a full month. The premium of $39.6 per share accounted for 20% of the underlying stock's value. The combination of the short-selling report and the earnings report drove IV sky-high, with the 30-day IV reaching 117%. The options market priced in a ±32% amplitude for the earnings night, with a breakeven point of $242, requiring another ~23% increase.

In early June, I followed institutions to take a long position and captured the new high of $346 in late June; from the end of June until now, the logic has basically been bearish and staying away. Behind the 20% drop from last week to now is a series of news:

1. A series of reports in early July directly pointed to the scandium supply chain: for example, on the 14th, Hunterbrook stated that scandium is an essential stabilizer for the ceramic electrolytes in every fuel cell, and China requires export licenses for it;
2. On the 16th, the company officially announced securing a $1.7 billion investment in AI cloud infrastructure projects, but the stock price instead crashed by 13.7%—good news exhausted collided with the entire AI sector turning bearish;
3. Yesterday, TD Cowen delivered another blow: the air permit for Oracle's 2.45 GW project has not yet been approved, the gas pipeline is stuck with federal regulators, and the timeline for AEP's Wyoming project has been pushed back two years within 90 days, also losing the developer.

In my view, the delays mentioned by TD Cowen are accounts for 2027 and 2028. FERC's ruling in June favoring on-site power generation, along with potential orders from Texas and Spain, are still adding weight to the bulls' side, and it rebounded 5% in pre-market trading.

However, the current price of this option is too expensive: a naked Call purchase at $39.6, paying 20% premium to bet on earnings, means if IV drops upon loss, half is wiped out first. There are two key price levels to watch next: probing the bottom at $195 to see market expectations before the earnings report; if it doesn't break below, one can buy back in batches near the earnings date—the upside target is whether it can reclaim the gap at $215. In this situation, entering the market should primarily focus on the underlying stock, while options tools are suitable for using spreads to compress costs.