GOOG's performance in the last 8 after-hours earnings reports

I pulled the last 8 after-hours earnings reports for GOOG (2024Q2–2026Q1) and calculated them uniformly based on "announcement day regular close → next day open / next day close / 5th trading day close".

Conclusion:

• The stock rose the next day in 5 out of 8 cases, but the average gain was only +0.6%; the directional advantage is not strong.
• The median absolute volatility the next day was 2.7%, with a mean of 3.8%. Given the current implied move of approximately ±6.1%, only 2 out of 8 instances saw the next-day close breach this range. The current options pricing is higher than most historical actual closing price volatilities.
• The overnight gap is larger: 3 out of 8 exceeded ±6.1%. Moreover, 3 instances of significant gap-ups/gap-downs saw obvious intraday retracement, indicating that the most valuable period to protect against is the opening gap, not holding for several days.
• In all 8 cases, the direction on the next day matched the 5th day, but with a sample size of only 8, this cannot be treated as a stable pattern.

Mapping to position sizing: Even if GOOG at $346.19 rises by +6.1% to approximately $367, it remains about 8.3% below the Jan27 400C strike price. While an increase would allow calls to benefit from delta, the magnitude is typically insufficient to offset the post-earnings IV crush; "rising 5/8 times historically" is not enough justification to keep two high-strike calls.

My ranking remains unchanged:

1. Safest approach: Sell 1 Jan27 400C call before earnings, directly halving delta/vega risk.
2. If you insist on not reducing position size: Buy only 1 set of Jul24 335/315 put spreads. History shows that what truly needs hedging is the ~-7% overnight tail risk; the 335 long put starts working from a drop of about 3.2% from the current price, covering earlier than the 330/315 spread.
3. Do not sell naked puts. They increase bullish delta and the obligation to take delivery during declines, which is not a hedge.

The chart places the current ±6.1% pricing alongside the 8 actual market reactions. Price data: Longbridge forward-adjusted GOOG daily chart; dates verified by Alphabet IR and SEC 2026Q1 release. At 21:35 after market open, I will re-quote based on real-time bid/ask in the original protection strategy thread.