$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)

Google Earnings Forecast:

1. Options

The Call wall on the 24th is accumulating at 370.

The Put wall on the 24th is at 330.

For positions with full coverage, the Put wall is at 330, and the Call wall is at 350.

Therefore, the downside support should be at 330, indicating a potential -4% fluctuation.

Looking at Gamma, we are currently in the negative gamma zone, meaning volatility will increase.

The maximum negative gamma is at 330, the maximum positive gamma is at 400, and the second highest is at 375.

So, post-earnings volatility should range between 330 and 375, offering about a 10% space for movement.

2. Revenue Analysis

Google's main margin driver is Ads, accounting for 50% of total revenue. Current Google Trends data shows an upward trend in searches for Ads and YouTube Ads, indicating that demand for ad placement remains strong.

Commercial keywords (which reflect stronger willingness to invest in ads) have also seen a slight increase compared to three months ago.

Since Google uses a CPC (Cost Per Click) billing model, where higher bidders get priority display, bid data from Gemini indicates:

Prices for keyword packages have all risen, and the capture of long-tail keywords has become more aggressive (ads can now appear for previously unrelated search terms).

Users on Reddit have complained about Google doubling charges by displaying ads within AI search results.

Combining these clues, Google's Ads business is expected to exceed expectations.

[Drivers of Stock Price]

Nature of Business: Input/Output

As a major Capex spender with an annual budget of $200 billion, shareholders need to see returns on investment to disprove the AI bubble.

The most direct indicator is: AI Capex / AI Revenue (Direct + Indirect).

Direct Revenue: API, Subscriptions

Indirect (I believe this is the most important, as it needs to prove there is no negative impact on the ad business): AI improving profits in existing businesses.

Following this logic, combined with the aggressive display and charging practices in the Ads business mentioned earlier, I lean towards Google rising, targeting 370+.

So I'm placing a sell order at 402.5 (not planning to sell) 🤣🤣🤣