$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Google's Capex has once again received negative short-term feedback from the market, with investors simultaneously worrying about two things: 1) The portion of Capex invested in model R&D appears to have a low ROI, given the underwhelming performance of Gemini 3.5; 2) The Capex related to selling cloud computing power is suspected of circular transactions with Anthropic, where both profits and backlogs originate from them, as do investments. Double-counting is not allowed, and ROI needs to be discounted. Both of these short-term logics make sense; looking at it over a longer horizon, it might not be that bad: 1) The competition for models may see shifts in dominance, and perhaps the next version will make a comeback; 2) If Liang Sheng's judgment is accurate that "lower cost is ultimately more important," then Gemini being temporarily behind becomes less significant. Cloud infrastructure will be more crucial and grant greater influence, alleviating the above two concerns. The worst-case scenario remains: winner-takes-all in the model space & Gemini continues to underperform.