---
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42886971.md"
description: "$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Google's Capex has once again received negative short-term feedback from the market, with investors simultaneously worrying about two things: 1) The portion of Capex invested in model R&D appears to have a low ROI, given the underwhelming performance of Gemini 3.5; 2) The Capex related to selling cloud computing power is suspected of circular transactions with Anthropic, where both profits and backlogs originate from them, as do investments. Double-counting is not allowed, and ROI needs to be discounted. Both of these short-term logics make sense; looking at it over a longer horizon, it might not be that bad: 1) The competition for models may see shifts in dominance, and perhaps the next version will make a comeback; 2) If Liang Sheng's judgment is accurate that "lower cost is ultimately more important," then Gemini being temporarily behind becomes less significant. Cloud infrastructure will be more crucial and grant greater influence, alleviating the above two concerns. The worst-case scenario remains: winner-takes-all in the model space & Gemini continues to underperform."
datetime: "2026-07-23T13:29:05.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/42886971.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/42886971.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/42886971.md)
author: "[晓风 morning_wind](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/6620864.md)"
---

# $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Google's Capex has once again …


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## Comments (13)

- **blue whale · 2026-07-31T16:03:25.000Z**: Spot on. The narrative around Gemini feels like it's approaching a turning point; once gemini_Code can achieve work-of-art status, the logic could completely flip. Since Gemini only supports Google Cloud, this could in turn impact OpenAI and Claude's AWS and Microsoft Cloud businesses. However, if t
- **GenuxA · 2026-07-29T12:33:57.000Z**: How do you view this market trend? Are you still holding SMIC?
- **第100次爆仓，从500块 · 2026-07-24T13:00:21.000Z**: Unless cash flow improves significantly, it's just losing money for nothing.
- **明媚的夏佐 · 2026-07-24T12:15:34.000Z**: Feng Zong, it's really impressive to precisely rotate part of the position into TSM. Could you please share your current holdings if convenient? Thanks.
- **卢氏一族 · 2026-07-23T14:26:56.000Z · 👍 1**: Bro, Google was precisely reduced in position a while ago.
- **人送外号川渝美食家 · 2026-07-23T14:26:04.000Z · 👍 2**: I think the current trend for model is that the winner won't take all, there's no essential gap. Google is a golden pit now, so I'll buy a few long calls first, this post serves as proof, let's see in half a year.
- **爱吃菠萝包的猫 · 2026-07-23T13:44:39.000Z · 👍 4**: I still hold the same view: from the beginning, Google prioritized Flash and Flash Lite more, valuing speed and cost-effectiveness over peak performance; this is a business decision.
- **韭菜领域大神 · 2026-07-23T13:36:08.000Z · 👍 2**: Looking at it this way, TSMC is indeed very stable. It's rare to find a company that is both a cash cow and has steadily growing earnings.
- **巨力哥 · 2026-07-23T13:33:38.000Z · 👍 1**: It turns out the large models really do take turns being number one 😂
  - **Iwen** (2026-07-23T13:54:26.000Z): When did grok sit in first place?
- **新的老韭菜 · 2026-07-23T13:32:58.000Z**: Don't understand 😂
- **SpiceMonkey · 2026-07-23T13:32:20.000Z · 👍 1**: The cloud revenue base is still on the smaller side; even with maximum growth rates, the absolute value still can't keep up with the capex increase. No inflection point in cash flow yet 🙃