--- type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43136536.md" description: "Weekly ReviewYou still can't hold storage stocks for the long term in the future. After peaking at the end of June, there are too many trapped positions. The advice to buy storage at the beginning of July is a 'hard mode'—it's difficult to make money.The three-day crash followed by one day of surge in storage stocks was due to Wall Street's setup involving the 'genius youth.' After his margin call triggered a liquidation, short sellers covered their positions, causing a spike. However, profit-taking led to a pullback. That said, getting married over the weekend is more important.The AI narrative won't fail or die prematurely, but it doesn't mean you should blindly be bullish. It's like how everyone goes through life after birth, but some don't reach the end due to illness or other reasons.Cloud computing has been bearish for two months, but this week added $1.5 trillion in market cap, driven by improvements in fundamentals. This reflects the AI monetization capabilities shown in Microsoft and Amazon's earnings reports, as well as Microsoft's trend of gradually controlling Capex spending, which pulled Google and Oracle along with it. I was always bullish on Microsoft and Google when we played them, and I told everyone to hold on. There shouldn't be any losses now, congratulations.This aligns with one principle: 'The market will definitely gradually shift speculation from shovel sellers to cloud providers, software, large models, and physical AI applications over the next three years.' Value investors who just 'lie flat' holding semiconductors might underperform the broader market even after a year.Even if TSMC breaks its previous highs, the upside is limited. The 畸形 (distortion) in the AI chain development stems from semiconductor hardware makers having excessively high profits. Computing power/storage scarcity has already been priced in. Yesterday, we also saw Kioxia's excellent earnings report missing expectations... Including bloggers who recommended holding Nvidia tightly in 2025 and those recommending holding storage tightly in June 2026, none seem to sense that this expectation is peaking.In the past two years, trading Nvidia might not outperform QQQ unless you can accurately find the bottom. Storage is also returning to rationality, with limited space. The internet may see more influencers who haven't realized this leading retail investors astray, which is hard to avoid.The flaw lies in the irrational rally from April to June. AI infrastructure, including chips, storage, and optical modules, surged significantly, dragging along sentiment and expectations. The stock price drop in June wasn't due to fundamentals, but because sentiment and expectations peaked, capital fled, and combined with the collapse of faith/patience in Musk's two companies, the entire US stock market experienced schizophrenic volatility—a hell-level difficulty.I built a model where the decision-making for entry points = 50% FOMO emotion (chasing highs/cutting lows) + 30% listening to KOL opinions + 20% reasonable self-trading logic.I treat this 30% KOL input as a contrarian indicator. The biggest problem with KOLs is the fan economy; they say whatever to please fans, shifting their cognition from objective to subjective. Many crypto KOLs have started trading US stocks, totally messing things up. Currently, three of the four 'stock gods' have fallen: White Hair, ByteDance, and Genius Youth. Only Trump remains.So, the remaining task is to minimize this 50% portion as much as possible.Recently, I fed the recently released earnings data into Codex and analyzed the problem from a mathematical perspective. The result showed that overall performance still exceeded expectations. Therefore, earnings data will continue to support S&P index gains in the coming months. The flaw is that the expectation kill isn't complete, with various factions fighting, leading to high volatility without a clear direction. For now, I won't take a heavy position.This week, due to facing the storage decline, I posted daily updates frequently. Next week, I will only post weekly reviews." datetime: "2026-08-01T03:28:11.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43136536.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/43136536.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/43136536.md) author: "[钢铁纪律](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/13301109.md)" --- # Weekly ReviewYou still can't hold storage stocks f… ### Related Stocks - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [ORCL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ORCL.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [GOOGN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGN.US.md) - [ORCL-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ORCL-D.US.md) - [AMZN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZN.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Comments (64) - **天才交易员9号 · 2026-08-05T05:30:47.000Z**: Tie Ge Shan Di's night session suddenly surged and broke through 1450. Does this count as breaking through the resistance level? - **新用户_3SsLd5 · 2026-08-04T20:00:29.000Z**: The pressure level at 1450 has not been broken yet - **钱啊 · 2026-08-03T02:35:12.000Z**: Ge, can I still buy MRVL? - **吴霜降 · 2026-08-03T01:33:25.000Z**: Trump should still be relatively stable... this one probably won't fall. - **467976 · 2026-08-03T01:04:35.000Z**: The night market rose a little bit. - **Iwen · 2026-08-02T02:49:05.000Z · 👍 1**: NVIDIA probably won't go that far, with a forward PE of only 20x. Also, when AMD and INTE rose, 'Dazi' didn't rise much either; there should be at least a catch-up rally 😂 - **钢铁纪律** (2026-08-02T04:02:06.000Z): If you can't make big money, you can specifically look at the victims of Nvidia. - **Iwen** (2026-08-02T04:26:53.000Z): Rather than buying volatile storage, I prefer NVIDIA with lower volatility. - **钢铁纪律** (2026-08-02T09:51:03.000Z): You can buy now, it will go up - **重名 · 2026-08-02T02:16:40.000Z**: Bro, what's your take on software stock ADBE? - **留在牌桌就还有机会 · 2026-08-01T15:24:41.000Z**: Bro Gang, will Korea's market follow the drop on Monday? Does that mean the US stock night session will also continue to fall with Korea? - **LUOTIII · 2026-08-01T14:18:47.000Z**: Hahaha, actually my Google call is still losing money - **买了就涨卖了就跌 · 2026-08-01T12:20:18.000Z**: Bro, are you using ChatGPT's native model for Codex, or the domestic one? - **码死磕 · 2026-08-01T12:06:40.000Z**: I went out for fun over the weekend and didn't watch the market. I still hold some Micron; I should have sold a portion at 900 earlier. I've now set up an auto-sell, hoping it gives me a chance. - **我有两只猫 · 2026-08-01T10:06:07.000Z**: As for CPO and Intel, they want to switch to NBIs - **钢铁纪律** (2026-08-01T10:24:50.000Z): I've reviewed many comments, and basically no one is paying attention to the software and cloud companies. So next week, the cloud sector will still rise, while hardware will fall. - **超可爱的大泡泡** (2026-08-01T14:01:47.000Z): Bro, which cloud providers are worth keeping an eye on? - **买谁谁涨** (2026-08-03T15:23:06.000Z): Has it turned? - **随缘吧会到达 · 2026-08-01T09:12:25.000Z**: Keep updating daily, boss - **小财主收土豆 · 2026-08-01T07:41:45.000Z**: Bro, what do you think of Qualcomm? - **交易员阿瓜 · 2026-08-01T07:16:22.000Z**: The future belongs to the application side and physical AI; buy early and layout early. - **超卖就买超买就卖 · 2026-08-01T06:40:25.000Z**: Can Discipline's dram 60 still break even? 😂 - **小财主收土豆** (2026-08-01T07:40:33.000Z): I'm 70 - **钢铁纪律** (2026-08-01T09:52:24.000Z): Roughly early July, [I] posted that DRAM is not suitable to hold. Don't know who [I was referring to/following]. - **超卖就买超买就卖** (2026-08-01T11:01:49.000Z): I hadn't noticed Discipline Bro in early July. - **打不死的小强～ · 2026-08-01T05:52:19.000Z**: NVIDIA, which has risen continuously for over a decade and multiplied by more than 100 times, was crashed by my purchase. - **丞相 · 2026-08-01T05:45:51.000Z**: Google has been holding on, while Microsoft panicked and sold off during the earnings report night, falling just before dawn 😑 - **钢铁纪律** (2026-08-01T07:20:09.000Z): Hold Google tight - **钢铁纪律** (2026-08-01T07:21:21.000Z): On the night when Microsoft was at 349, there were also calls to hold for the long term. Now that it's so high, there's no need to chase. It's estimated to go to 500-600. - **饱饱8** (2026-08-01T09:31:11.000Z): TSMC bro - **爱自己是最好的开始 · 2026-08-01T04:54:24.000Z · 👍 1**: Can the ChiNext optical module sector (Zhongji Innolight - Eoptolink) reach previous highs again? - **GSCHH111** (2026-08-02T08:40:32.000Z): It's definitely going to be difficult. The market makers won't go out of their way to help you get out of your positions.