The consensus has not yet formed during this chaotic period.

We are currently in the left side of the trend.

We can only wait for the next wave of the market to form a consensus.

Also ask yourself: Are you trying to profit from the left side by positioning now,

or the right side? If it's the right side, you need to exit quickly.

Personal view: No interest rate hike.

The debt pressure brought by rate hikes, under a continuous hiking cycle,

means Mg needs to pay an additional hundreds of billions in USD interest annually.

Liquidity continues to tighten.

I. US Stock Market Volatility and Capital Harvesting Logic

1. The Underlying Capital Base

The vast majority of funds in the US 401(k) pension plan are heavily invested in US stocks. This is the core existing capital that supports US stocks in the long term and forms the basic foundation of passive capital.

2. CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) Volatility Harvesting Model

The exchange uses derivatives rules to actively amplify short-term price fluctuations in crude oil and stock indices. By causing rapid sell-offs to create panic, they harvest bleeding low-position chips from retail investors and passive pension funds. This is also the core reason why extreme 'pin' movements often appear in commodity and US stock markets, reflecting structural unfairness at the level of derivatives market rules.

In the future, regarding China and the US, it is about the A-share trend. Why are we bullish?

The underlying competitive logic of the tech industry

1. Core Essence: Talent is the primary productive force

Tech barriers are ultimately built by top R&D talent.

A healthy industry mechanism

must ensure that core technical talent receives corresponding income returns.

You must provide enough money to retain talent.

2. Competitive Appearance: An arms race of capital

All competitions in hardcore technology eventually boil down to a competition of capital investment: advanced process wafers, HBM storage, optical modules, and computing clusters all require massive capital expenditures; only teams and enterprises with real technology and hard skills can realize profits in this capital competition.

Supplementary reality verification

In previous crashes and surges in the crude oil market,

CME's margin adjustments and changes in delivery rules

are often the fuse for volatility;

The landscape of this round of the AI industry chain also completely fits this logic:

Companies like SK Hynix and Eoptolink, which master core technologies,

continue to secure long-term capital orders, and R&D talent salary premiums continue to rise.