$Circle(CRCL.US) $CRCL 2X Long ETF(CRCG.US)Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette downgraded Circle Internet Group $Circle(CRCL.US) from Equalweight to Underweight with a price target of $38.00 (from $106.00). Downgrade to UW and cut PT to $38 as USDC contraction exposes reserve income sensitivity and points to a lower-margin shift toward transaction revenue. We cut USDC assumptions by ~33% in ’27 and ~44% in ’28, driving GAAP EPS ~3% and ~20% below consensus. Tokenized MMFs and deposits threaten both USDC balances and take rates, with USYC carrying structurally weaker economics. Agentic payments remain immaterial, with volume down to $41.9K per day and an implied average transaction size near ~$0.24. Open USD embeds shared governance and reserve economics, raising the cost of defending USDC distribution.
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