Surged on the first day, is there any chance Nasen Technology will reach 20 billion? Xiaohong seems to have recovered well.

Nasen Technology surged 60% in the grey market yesterday, nearing the 10 billion RMB threshold for Stock Connect inclusion. On its first day of listing today, it continued its upward trend, with gains expanding to 79.65% as of this writing, and a circulating market cap of 11.138 billion RMB.$NASN TECH(02261.HK) $VGT(02476.HK)

It is currently on the threshold for inclusion. As long as the company's equity concentration remains stable, it should smoothly pass the review in December and be included in Stock Connect by March next year.

However, the company has another option: opting for the quick inclusion review at the end of Q3 (September 30), targeting a circulating market cap of 21.8 billion RMB. This would allow inclusion in December, one quarter earlier than the standard timeline.

If this happens, there could be another doubling upside, leaving Longbridge community members eager and excited.

However, I believe the probability of the company successfully pulling the circulating market cap up to 21.8 billion RMB for the September 30 review is not very high, for the following reasons.

1. Pumping the market cap requires capital, which has a cost. The capital needed to maintain the stock price is far lower than that required to pump it. With less than two months left, short-term pumping would significantly increase capital costs. If the execution is poor, post-inclusion selling may fall short of expectations (especially given the huge gap between 21.8 billion RMB and the company's fundamentals), carrying the risk of failure.

2. The rally in June was essentially an open-secret rush to meet the review deadline, offering low-risk opportunities to get trapped. But now the company has choices. It can lead you to believe it aims for the September 30 review. However, if too many chips are distributed during the pump, it might switch to selling at high levels instead. This allows them to lock in profits early and conduct deep washouts. You will likely lose out against them.

3. The inclusion threshold is calculated based on averages. If 21.8 billion RMB isn't reached in the short term, further pumping will be needed, costing even more money. Buying back shares dispersed at lower prices later would also incur higher costs.

4. If they choose the December 31 review, they can use this time to repeatedly wash out weak hands and distribute shares at lower costs, acting with greater ease and flexibility.

In summary, chasing highs at this point is not recommended due to significant risks. Those who got allocated shares or bought in during the grey market opening have already done well; treating themselves to a few extra meals of pig trotter rice is sufficient. For the rest, it's best to sit back and watch the show.

Additionally, Winning Holdings Intelligent Technology has recently picked up momentum, showing early signs of bottoming out and rebounding. However, there is heavy overhead resistance between 210-250, with strong resistance at 250. Keep an eye on whether it can break through and stabilize above 250 (it has already broken through; a sudden surge from a 200 million RMB mega-order occurred; let's see if it holds. Remember to set stop-losses).