Guolian Depu Luo Chunpeng: Global tech investment awaits new narrative; Q3 and Q4 allocation needs to focus on balancing offense and defense

[Market Performance]

As of the close on Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 5.39%, Wind All-A rose by 5.37%, the STAR 50 rose by 6.61%, the ChiNext Index rose by 6.55%, the CSI 300 rose by 2.32%, the CSI 500 rose by 6.49%, and the CSI 1000 rose by 8.54%.

(Data source: Wind Information, Data period: 2026.08.03-2026.08.07)

[Sector Performance]

Among the 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification this week:

The top three gainers: Electronics +12.62%, Nonferrous Metals +10.95%, Machinery & Equipment +9.71%

The top three decliners: Banks -3.70%, Food & Beverage -2.76%, Household Appliances -2.14%

(Data source: Wind Information, Shenwan First-Level Industries, Data period: 2026.08.03-2026.08.07)

[Viewpoint Express]

Luo Chunpeng, Chief Strategy Analyst at Guolianan Fund and Deputy Director of the Pension and FOF Investment Department, provided an in-depth interpretation of global macroeconomic cycles, Federal Reserve policy, tech sector trends, and the mid-to-long-term opportunities in the AI industry. He analyzed market rhythms from both cyclical patterns and industrial evolution perspectives, offering asset allocation strategies and market outlooks for the third and fourth quarters.

The current Juglar cycle began in 2019, and we are currently in the second Kitchin short cycle.

From a long-cycle perspective, Luo Chunpeng pointed out that the current ten-year Juglar capital expenditure supercycle started in 2019. A complete Juglar cycle consists of three Kitchin short cycles of approximately 42 months each. The market is currently at the end of the second Kitchin cycle within this supercycle. This short cycle, driven by the AI industry, started in 2023, and its duration as of the second half of this year has significantly exceeded historical averages.

The global economy is currently showing divergence. While the AI supply chain maintains high prosperity, other traditional industries continue to weaken. Meanwhile, the real interest rate on the long end of US Treasuries is approaching the highs seen during the consecutive rate hikes of 2023. Even if the Fed pauses rate hikes, the financial markets themselves create a strong tightening effect, directly raising corporate financing costs. Major cloud vendors are facing pressure on operating cash flows, and external financing costs have risen sharply. Shareholder constraints further limit companies' expansion efforts, making the ceiling for upstream AI capital investment increasingly visible.

In comparison with overseas markets, the domestic economy shows stronger resilience. RMB exchange rates remain stable, and there is ample room for policy tools. Consequently, the downside risk for A-shares as a whole is relatively limited.

Luo Chunpeng noted that according to cyclical evolution laws, the third Kitchin cycle of the Juglar cycle may usher in a phase of comprehensive global liquidity easing. Various assets, including technology, are expected to see broad-based gains.

The tech sector has a short-term window for repair, but a larger rally awaits new narrative logic.

Comparing with previous sharp downturns, Luo Chunpeng analyzed that growth stocks such as optical modules and sci-tech chips in this round have corrected by up to 40% within a month, fully releasing prior risks. Coupled with the fact that current market leverage pressures and industrial fundamentals are better than in 2015, the tech sector in August has a foundation for a 阶段性 rebound.

However, Luo Chunpeng also emphasized that a larger profit-making rally requires seeing new narrative logic.

He summarized the 规律 of seven-year complete investment cycles in the tech industry since 2000: the main theme for the first three years is upstream hardware, while opportunities in the last four years often fall on downstream applications.

This round of AI hardware bull run started in 2023 and has already exceeded three years. Without a completely new industrial narrative, it will be difficult for the upstream sector to return to previous highs. Moreover, the penetration rate of the only currently mature commercialized AI scenario, AI Coding, is also nearing its peak. Continued growth beyond expectations is becoming increasingly difficult. The market urgently needs new landing applications to open up space for valuation upside.

Three sub-sectors in AI applications have long-term explosive potential.

Luo Chunpeng believes that there are multiple commercialization paths in the downstream AI application sector worthy of close attention:

First is the AIGC video and media track. Leading tool platforms have achieved generating a complete 30-second advertising short film from a single sentence. The commercial placement scenarios are clear, benefiting the valuation repair of media and computer sectors.

Second is the AI + pharmaceutical R&D track. Compared to the gaming industry where technical barriers are weakening, the biopharmaceutical industry has high entry thresholds. The surge in innovative drug BD transactions is driving high earnings growth for CXO enterprises. AI-empowered drug R&D is expected to become a high-elasticity main line over the next three years.

Third is the humanoid robot track. Related products from leading humanoid robot companies are accelerating towards landing and mass production. The deep integration of AI and hardware is expected to open up long-term growth space.

Overall, once AI applications continuously realize cash flow, it will also drive the upstream hardware sector in reverse. However, the stock price elasticity of the application sector may be significantly higher than that of the hardware segment.

Asset Allocation Outlook for the Second Half of '26

Regarding asset allocation for the third and fourth quarters, Luo Chunpeng stated that bond assets offer superior defensive value and deserve attention from investors seeking hedging. If the tech sector corrects, expectations for overseas easing will increase. These overseas easing expectations will also broaden the space for domestic monetary policy easing.

Gold, benefiting from expectations of mid-to-long-term interest rate declines, has confirmed its bottom and possesses continuous allocation value. Traditional sectors only present short-term defensive rallies driven by fund rotation, with weak sustainability in rebounds.

Risk Warning: This represents only the market view of Guolianan Fund at that time. Markets involve risks; investment requires caution. This material is prepared based on public information deemed reliable by Guolianan Fund. Under no circumstances do the information or opinions expressed in this material constitute investment advice for anyone, nor do they serve as promotional materials or any legal documents. Investors should not regard this viewpoint as the sole reference factor for making investment decisions, nor should they believe it can replace their own judgment. Investors bear all risks and consequences of their investment behaviors themselves.