Wow, that's really weird. Tonight, gold, crude oil, the US dollar, and the 10-year US Treasury yield all rose together. … | Longbridge

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新新用戶_dLcvRX

新用戶_dLcvRX

SGOV

HSBC Commentator

Aug 10 at 01:44 PM

Wow, that's really weird. Tonight, gold, crude oil, the US dollar, and the 10-year US Treasury yield all rose together. We really need to analyze the economic data released in the future, focusing on changes starting from this CPI.

I think first: the US Dollar Index and gold may no longer be negatively correlated (our academic paper models analyze it this way, though some practitioners might feel they aren't negatively correlated).

And the negative correlation between gold and crude oil amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict may not necessarily hold in the future either.

新新用戶_dLcvRX

I remember the day gold and silver crashed, which was exactly when Trump introduced Walsh to take office. The rate cut and quantitative tightening, especially the QT, had a significant impact. The content in my previous link (comments on the gold-dollar link) might indicate the direction of movement for these major asset classes.

Even if interest rates are cut, the US dollar won't necessarily fall. Conversely, once gold rises to a certain level, it may also trigger a liquidation/correction. It needs to be viewed with reasonable allocation.

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