[Analysis of Sub-new Stocks] Hong Kong Stock Connect has another batch of new faces. Let's talk about the practical stuff: lock-up expirations, chip distribution, and institutional cost bases.

9On September 7, the Stock Connect officially took effect. Among this batch of newly added listings, several AI targets have drawn significant attention. Lao Yu breaks them down one by one. Today, we start with four: Haiqing Zhiyuan (01392.HK), Qunhe Technology (00068.HK), Shenyan Intelligence (02723.HK), and Huayan Robotics (01021.HK).

1. Haiqing Zhiyuan: A recent IPO without cornerstone investors, with a clean chip structure that is reassuring

Haiqing Zhiyuan, the first physical AI stock, listed on June 22 at an issue price of HK$7.2. It opened at HK$29 on day one and closed at HK$26.7, surging 270.83%. But this seems to be just the beginning of the story.

This stock has no cornerstone investors—The standard practice for Hong Kong IPOs is to secure a group of cornerstone investors who lock their shares for six months; the expiration date marks the day with the heaviest selling pressure.

However, Haiqing did not set up cornerstone investors—there is nocornerstone selling pressure expiring in six months. Moreover, according to public information, the top ten subscribers in the international placement collectively subscribed to 51.11% of the international offering shares, all subject to a one-year lock-up period.

Founder Zhou Bo and his concert parties hold a combined 43.50%, with a lock-up period of "six months from the listing date and the subsequent six months," totaling one full year. Other pre-IPO investors and existing shareholders are also subject to the same 12-month statutory lock-up.

Calculating it out, before next June, this 51.11% of international offering, 43.50% founder lock-up, and other pre-IPO investor and existing shareholder lock-ups mean that the vast majority of chips for this stock are welded shut. The truly circulating stocks in the market are extremely few, not even counting those who proactively lock their shares due to bullish fundamentals.

In terms of institutional cost—the issue price was HK$7.2, while the current stock price is over HK$20. Early participating institutions have substantial floating profits. As always, who would rush to sell something locked for 12 months just because it has risen 200% in the short term?

The semi-annual report data is also solid: revenue reached HK$410 million, up 84.5% YoY. Large model service income surged 382.5% to HK$320 million, accounting for 78.8%. The company has transformed from a hardware manufacturer to an AI service provider. It has been included in the Shenzhen MIIT model service institution list, partnered with DeepRobotics on embodied intelligence, and expanded to Singapore via LINKWISE—OK, it is not just a PPT company.

In summary, for Haiqing Zhiyuan, inclusion in the Stock Connect is a catalyst, the chip structure is a plus, and the absence of cornerstone unlocks is a scarce attribute.

2. Qunhe Technology: A sword hangs over October, with nearly 93% of chips to be released

Qunhe Technology listed on April 17 at an issue price of HK$7.62. It opened at HK$20.7 and closed at HK$18.6, gaining 144.09%. At the time, basking in the halo of being the "First Stock of Hangzhou Six Little Dragons" and the "Global Spatial Intelligence First Stock," it enjoyed immense glory.

Although it subsequently declined, as of early September, the stock price had retraced over 80% from its peak, evaporating over HK$60 billion in market cap. Nevertheless, the halo of being the "First Stock of Hangzhou Six Little Dragons" still commands respect.

The chip issue is relatively large—controlling shareholders, pre-IPO investors, and cornerstone investors have a shareholding lock-up commitment period of only six months, expiring on October 16, 2026. Once that date arrives, nearly 1.6 billion shares will become tradable, representing 92.64% of the total share capital.

What does 92.64% mean?It means almost all the chips in the entire company will be unlocked.

The initial surge after listing was driven entirely by sentiment and scarcity. When the October unlock wave hits, those pre-IPO institutions and cornerstone investors with extremely low costs will still have ample profit margins relative to the HK$7.62 issue price, even after an 80% retracement from the peak.

Of course, whether there will be another rally before the October unlock is hard to predict.

In terms of institutional cost—the issue price was HK$7.62, which is the cost base for cornerstone and pre-IPO institutions. With the current stock price around HK$9, they still have room for profit. However, the problem is that these chips are locked until October 16—what is currently traded in the market consists mostly of retail investors and short-term funds. By October, the real "big goods" will come out.

Semi-annual revenue was HK$405 million, with a modest YoY growth of only 1.5%. Adjusted net profit of HK$55.42 million looks decent, but that is "adjusted"—the actual operating loss stands at HK$8.21 million. AI new application revenue grew 177% YoY, but the absolute value is only HK$31 million. Is the small float capable of supporting an HK$80 billion valuation?

In summary, for Qunhe, the true test lies in the October unlock.

3. Shenyan Intelligence: Beneath the halo of a thousand-yuan stock lies a clean chip structure, but I am afraid of heights

Listed on May 27 at an issue price of HK$55.5. It closed at HK$203 on its first day, up 265%. Then it went straight up, breaking HK$1,000 intraday for the first time on September 4. In just over three months since listing, the cumulative gain exceeded 500%, a 1700% increase from the issue price.

Semi-annual revenue was HK$398 million, up 43.6% YoY, with net profit of HK$8.195 million, up 125% YoY. Intelligent agent product revenue grew 52.9% YoY. The client list includes P&G, CR Vanguard, Li Auto, and SPDB. The fundamentals can support it.

In terms of chip structure, similar to Haiqing Zhiyuan—no cornerstone investors.

Controlling shareholders Huang Xiaonan and Xie Peng are concert parties, holding 18.86% and 13.29% respectively, totaling 32.15%. They have committed to a lock-up until May 26, 2027. Other existing shareholders have also committed to a one-year lock-up.

For a full year, the 32% chips held by the top three shareholders are welded shut. Public float accounts for approximately 30.52% of the total post-listing share capital. There is no six-month cornerstone unlock pressure.

In terms of institutional cost—the issue price was HK$55.5, while the current stock price is over HK$900. Early participating institutions have massive floating profits. But like Haiqing Zhiyuan, these institutions hold one-year positions, not six-month ones. Who would rush to sell something locked for 12 months just because it has risen in the short term? What truly determines their selling timing is the fundamentals one year later.

For Shenyan Intelligence, the chips are clean, there is no short-term unlock pressure, and performance is materializing. The only "problem" is that the stock price has already risen 17 times—I am really afraid of heights!

4. Huayan Robotics: Leader in collaborative robots, but cornerstone unlocks at the end of September

Listed on March 30 at an issue price of HK$17. It is a top-five global collaborative robot manufacturer and the second-largest in China. Revenue grew from HK$109 million in 2022 to HK$310 million in 2024, a CAGR of 68.4%, achieving a net profit of HK$17.87 million in 2024. The fundamentals are solid.

In terms of chips—Huayan introduced cornerstone investors.Nine cornerstones, including Hillhouse, Morgan Stanley, and GF Fund, collectively subscribed to 45.2656 million shares. The lock-up period for cornerstone investors expires on September 29, 2026.

On September 29, less than a month after the Stock Connect takes effect, the unlock occurs.

The cost basis for this batch of cornerstones is the issue price of HK$17. Huayan's current stock price hovers around HK$18-19, so the profit margin for cornerstones is not large—unlike Shenyan's dozens-of-times surge. Therefore, after the September 29 unlock, will the cornerstones dump the stock? Not necessarily, but the selling pressure is real.

In terms of institutional cost—aside from cornerstones, the lock-up periods for pre-IPO investors and key personnel mostly extend to March 29, 2027. This means that only the cornerstone batch can exit at the end of September; others' chips can remain locked for a few more months.

In summary, Huayan itself operates in a good sector, with Deutsche Bank issuing its first "Buy" rating. However, the September 29 cornerstone unlock presents a headwind. With inclusion in the Stock Connect colliding with negative news, who will win? Hard to say;观望 (wait and see) is best.

Summary

All four were added to the Stock Connect on September 7, yet their chip structures vary drastically:

Haiqing Zhiyuan—No cornerstones, controlling shareholders locked for one year, known vast majority of chips welded until next June. The cleanest recent IPO structure; inclusion is merely the starting point.

Qunhe Technology—Nearly 93% of chips unlock on October 16. Highest pressure and uncertainty among the four.

Shenyan Intelligence—Also no cornerstones, controlling shareholders locked for one year, 32% chips welded. Stock price has risen 17 times; inclusion is already at a high level.

Huayan Robotics—Cornerstone unlock on September 29 is a short-term test. The liquidity brought by inclusion is a tailwind. Whether it can offset the unlocking selling pressure depends on the absorption capacity of Southbound capital.

As for which one to buy and when, that is each person's own judgment. Lao Yu only objectively analyzes chips, unlocks, and institutional costs. The rest, you figure out yourselves. For the next episode, which companies do you want to hear about?