--- title: "AUD/USD 5th wave targeting new highs? AI sector undaunted by non-farm payrolls impact" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43780535.md" description: "[Today's FX Market] September 7 Trading Strategy Title: AUD/USD 5th Wave Targeting New Highs? AI Chain Unfazed by Non-Farm Payrolls Shock. Stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls have brought the risk of a Fed rate hike this month back to the forefront, but the news hasn't dampened the strength of the global semiconductor sector. Meanwhile, the surge and subsequent pullback in US Treasury yields caused intraday volatility in FX and precious metals markets. Australian Dollar / US Dollar (AUD/USD) – 'Counter-trend' rally with three consecutive bullish candles, 5th wave attack targeting new highs? Daily chart analysis shows that although expectations for a Fed rate hike have intensified, Australia's economic momentum has exceeded expectations, compounded by a synchronized rise in commodities..." datetime: "2026-09-07T03:16:24.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43780535.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/43780535.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/43780535.md) author: "[交易员说](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/25527811.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # AUD/USD 5th wave targeting new highs? AI sector undaunted by non-farm payrolls impact \[Today's FX Market\] September 7 Trading Strategy **Title: AUD/USD Targets New Highs in Wave 5? AI Chain Unfazed by Non-Farm Impact** US non-farm payrolls came in stronger than expected, bringing the risk of a Fed rate hike this month back into focus. However, the news did not dampen the strong momentum in the global semiconductor sector. Meanwhile, the spike and subsequent pullback in US Treasury yields caused intraday volatility in forex and precious metals markets. **AUD/USD – "Counter-trend" Rally Streaks to Three Days, Wave 5 Attack Targets New High?** **Daily Chart:** Despite rising expectations for a Fed rate hike, Australia's economic heat exceeded forecasts, compounded by a resonance rally in commodities. Consequently, AUD/USD rallied for three consecutive days, hitting its highest level since May. This suggests the upward trend since July may have officially launched Wave 5. If it holds above the 61.8% retracement level at 0.7205 (aligning with August's high) from the long-term downtrend between 2021-2025, there are few significant obstacles before challenging the year-to-date high of 0.7275. However, the swing high of 0.7250 from February 2022 may present some selling pressure. On indicators, MACD formed a death cross at a high level above the zero line and the lines are now sticking together; RSI is climbing back toward overbought territory, suggesting the bears' previous push was merely an isolated flare-up. **4-Hour Chart:** AUD/USD indeed deviated from the uptrend that persisted throughout August last week, but quickly turned around to set a new rebound high. This highly energy-consuming operation has left 隐患 (hidden risks) on oscillators: neither MACD nor RSI has broken through the levels corresponding to the Wave 3 high. Moreover, the Wave 4 pullback essentially realized the earlier top divergence. Whether the market will show volatility before hitting the YTD peak depends on whether the support at the March high of 0.7185 holds. A break below would reveal the 雏形 (prototype) of a short-term double top. Subsequently, below the key level of 0.7157 (the 2023 peak), the mirror level of the Feb 26 low/May 5 low at 0.7130 is very close to the double top neckline. **Resistance Reference: 0.7205**, 0.7250, 0.7575 **Support Reference:** 0.7185, 0.7157, 0.7130 \*AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart **USD/CAD – Events Intensify Volatility, Trend Remains Within Downward Channel** **Daily Chart:** The simultaneous release of US non-farm and Canadian employment data created a stark contrast, with CAD clearly giving up the gains made after the central bank's hawkish stance last week. A engulfing bullish candle for USD/CAD has also complicated the wave structure: the pair is no longer simply falling toward the August valley bottom, creating the risk of launching a Wave 5 decline after topping in June. However, to completely overturn the current weakness, the pair must at least reclaim the August 17/28 lows at 1.3845 and re-close the rebound space at the May high of 1.3870 to seize the opportunity to challenge the upper rail of the downtrend since July. On indicators, both MACD and RSI are fluctuating in their respective weak zones, suggesting the market may just be in a complex mid-range consolidation phase. **4-Hour Chart:** USD/CAD's price action was volatile last week, but fluctuations formed inflection points within the initial downward channel since July. Combined with the weak daily indicators, calling for a bottom seems premature. On the downside risk, if the neckline of the mid-year low structure at 1.3800 breaks, the price will once again approach last month's lows, renewing the risk of a Wave 5 launch. However, below the March 3 rebound high of 1.3750, the area around 1.3720 converges the triple bottom from Aug-Sep last year and the dense highs from Feb-Mar this year, making the battle in this region likely fierce. Short-term indicator patterns have not yet confirmed a return to strength: MACD formed a golden cross below the zero line; RSI has risen to the neutral zone. **Resistance Reference:** 1.3845, 1.3870, 1.3900 **Support Reference:** 1.3800, 1.3750, 1.3720 \*USD/CAD 4-Hour Chart **Crude Oil – Multiple Rejections at End of Wave d, Strong Consolidation Near 90** **Daily Chart:** Sporadic news of ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continues to flow. Crude oil has consolidated sideways for three days, holding firm, but failed to break out further upward. Superficially, crude oil is still building momentum to attack the 90 level and the strong resistance zone above 92.00 (July high). A breakthrough would expand the upside space after breaking the mid-term triangle top edge since May. Subsequent targets aim sequentially at the June high of 95.00 and the dramatic high of 98.00 on April 13. On indicators, MACD maintains its offensive stance after a second golden cross above the zero line; RSI flattens below the overbought line, indicating the market is temporarily in a state of strong equilibrium. **4-Hour Chart:** Oil prices probed the crucial support at the August 20 high of 87.45 (end of triangle wave d) multiple times intraday last week without breaking. This level is also a red line ensuring continuous momentum after breaking the mid-term pattern. A break below would see a pullback touching the broken triangle top edge and the dramatic low of 84.80 from March 23. Subsequently, the 38.2% retracement level at 81.85 from the 2020-2022 uptrend is also the operational center of the entire symmetrical convergence triangle; proximity here will again raise questions about the future direction of oil prices. On indicators, MACD flattened after a high-level death cross; RSI is climbing back toward the overbought line, clearly showing characteristics of immediate strong consolidation. **Resistance Reference:** 92.00, 95.00, 98.00 **Support Reference:** 87.45, 84.80, 81.85 \*Crude H4 Source: FXTM **XAU/USD – Non-Farm Causes Wide Swings, Bottoming Posture Intact So Far** **Daily Chart:** Gold plunged significantly under the impact of non-farm data, but recovered most losses after US Treasury yields pulled back. The overall trend has not completely ruined the bottoming posture established by the previous two consecutive bullish candles. Nevertheless, gold's upside still faces strong resistance from the May 4 low of 4500 up to the 61.8% retracement level at 4540 from the record-high uptrend from October last year. A breakthrough would completely reshape the short-term strength since the triangle base formation in July. Subsequently, the May 29 high of 4600 likely carries moderate selling pressure. On indicators, MACD has not stopped its retracement pace after a death cross; RSI is also under pressure in the strong zone, indicating the market has not yet shaken off adjustment pressures. **4-Hour Chart:** As long as spot gold does not break the 4500 line, short-term swings will continue the normal pattern of lower highs and lower lows. In terms of levels, successive failures below the May 27 low of 4400 and the dramatic low of 4360 on Feb 2 will accelerate the solidification of bearish advantage. Downside targets the monthly low, but special attention should be paid to the 4310 line, which converges multiple stage lows from August. Below, 4270 is also a key mirror level from December last year; gold used the area between these two as a fulcrum to achieve two days of strong rebound. Oscillators stand on the threshold of alternating strength and weakness: MACD has risen back to near the zero line and flattened; RSI is also oscillating in the neutral zone. **Resistance Reference:** 4450, 4500, 4540 **Support Reference:** 4400, 4360, 4310 \*XAUUSD H4 Source: FXTM **Nikkei 225 (JP225) – Mid-Term Uptrend vs. Potential Wave C, Directional Choice Imminent** **Daily Chart:** Neither the US nor Japanese stock semiconductor sectors were "scared" by the strong non-farm data. The Nikkei Index broke the pattern of consecutive days of slow bearish candles with a medium-sized bullish candle on Friday (Sept 4). In terms of trend, as noted in the column, the connection between the YTD low and July low, along with the strong support created by the mirror level of the May 11 high/May 28 low at 63,800, has effectively curbed the downside. After reclaiming the dramatic valley bottom of 65,350 from July 8, the upside now targets the lower edge of the gap jump from the week of June 15 at 67,375. However, special attention should be paid to the intersection of the historical high/August high connection line with the latter above the index, which may create stubborn trend resistance; a breakthrough is needed to reshape the mid-term uptrend. Conversely, if 63,800 is ultimately broken, the main question will return to whether August's "lower high" marks the start of a major Wave C correction. Subsequent supports reference the June low of 62,300 and the July low (end of Wave A) of 60,500. On indicators, the MACD fast line stopped falling and turned up below the zero line; RSI is also quickly climbing back toward the strong zone, with recent downward pressure significantly alleviated. **Resistance Reference:** 67,375, 68,775, 70,000 **Support Reference:** 63,800, 62,300, 60,500 \*JP225 D1 Source: FXTM ### Related Stocks - [USD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USD.US.md) - [07299.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07299.HK.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [RSI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RSI.US.md) - [DULL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DULL.US.md) - [SHNY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SHNY.US.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**