---
title: "SKILL Workshop | Breakout win rate looks high? Don’t treat it as a signal yet"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/44454089.md"
description: "Breakout Backtest is live! It gives every win rate a baseline and a confidence range, so you can see how many points a breakout really adds. Comment to claim 288 Task Coins."
datetime: "2026-10-21T07:58:38.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/44454089.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/44454089.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/44454089.md)
author: "[LongbridgeAI](https://longbridge.com/en/profiles/10010333.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# SKILL Workshop | Breakout win rate looks high? Don’t treat it as a signal yet

**SKILL Workshop · Issue 6 · Breakout Backtest**

* * *

Ming has his eye on a stock that just hit a new high. The backtest says: *nearly 70% of the time, it was up 20 days after a breakout.*

Just as he was about to act, Uncle Leo asked one question:

**“This stock has been rising for the past year anyway. If I bought on a random day and held for the same 20 days, what would the odds of a gain be?”**

Run the numbers and it’s also over 60%. Subtract one from the other, and **the breakout really adds less than two points**.

Ming thought he’d caught a signal. Most of it was just the “this stock was already rising” backdrop.

**💻 Breakout Backtest** helps you see through a win rate: whether it can be trusted, and whether it counts as a signal.

## 

## Add a baseline, and the win rate becomes readable

Most tools give you one good-looking win rate. This radar does three more things:

**✅ A baseline.** The baseline is the odds of a gain if you bought the same stock on any day and held for the same number of days. Win rate minus baseline is the breakout’s true excess. For example, 69% minus a 67% baseline leaves an excess of just 2 points, which is of limited use.

**✅ A confidence range.** A stock may break out only a dozen or so times in four years, so the sample is small. The radar adds an interval: say the true range is 44% to 86%. If that straddles 50%, it’s hard to call it a signal.

**✅ Lit up only if it holds up.** A cell is coloured only when the excess is large enough and the interval sits above the baseline; otherwise it’s greyed out. In testing, over 90% of cells are grey: in most cases the sample simply isn’t enough to draw a conclusion.

## 

## What you see on one screen

-   **9-cell win-rate matrix**: three breakout types (52-week / 60-day / 20-day highs) × three windows (5 / 10 / 20 days later), each cell with its baseline and excess
-   **High vs low volume**: uses the stock’s own history to test whether the old saying “high volume is real, low volume is fake” actually holds
-   **Real vs fake breakout paths**: how far the real group rises at best on average, how far the fake group falls at worst on average, and what holding to day 20 actually earned or lost
-   **Every breakout in detail**: price on the day, previous high, volume ratio, the move over the next 5/10/20 days and the real/fake label, one row per breakout
-   **Candlestick markers**: over the past few hundred days, where each breakout happened and whether it was real or fake, all marked on the chart

## 

## Data comes from 4 Longbridge CLI commands

The radar’s algorithm isn’t complicated. The hard part is clean data on a consistent basis, and these few commands are enough:

-   `kline` pulls 4 years of daily candlesticks, used to find breakouts, calculate what happens next and work out volume multiples
-   `quote` fetches the live price and `static` the company name and exchange, for the first screen
-   `market-status` checks whether the market is open

## Breakout Backtest · install in 3 steps

> Prerequisite: Longbridge Skill (CLI) must be installed first before this `.skill` package can be downloaded and run.

1️⃣ Tap the [download link](https://assets.lbkrs.com/whale/skills/promotion/2026102101/breakout-backtest.skill.zip) to get the ZIP file (no need to unzip it — import it straight into your AI assistant)

2️⃣ Open your AI assistant, find \[Skill Centre / Plugin Centre\] → tap Import → select the ZIP file; or drag the ZIP into the chat box and follow the prompts.

3️⃣ Send “Open Breakout Backtest”, and your browser opens automatically.

## Longbridge Skill · how to install

For step-by-step guides, see: [Skill user guide](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39668770), [Official installation guide](https://open.longbridge.com/zh-CN/skill/)

> ⚠️ Skills only run in supported assistants such as Claude. The `.skill` package can’t be opened on its own.

## 🎁 Comment to win!

Join in either way:

1\. **Share a screenshot**: post a screenshot of your result from Breakout Backtest

2\. **Make a request**: tell us which tool you’d most like SKILL Workshop to build next

Everyone who joins gets 288 Task Coins, and we’ll draw 1 valid participant at random to receive an AI Exclusive Pro Card (30 days), worth HK$148.

Campaign period: now until 7pm on 28 October 2026. Rewards will be issued within 15 working days after the campaign ends.

*\*This tool is for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Longbridge reserves the right of final interpretation.*

---
> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**