---
title: "Dolphin Daily | Heavy fine for GOOGL, reward for MSFT? Results rule."
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44610024.md"
description: "Good morning! Today is Oct 29, 2026 (Beijing Time), and Dolphin Research brings you a one-glance read on global markets!Trading highlights: MSFT's Azure grew 48%, sending the stock higher AH. GOOGL's Search growth decelerated and FCF turned negative, with shares down nearly 10% AH.SK hynix said its supply is 'sold out through 2029', lifting memory names and Korean stocks. NOW and FTNT plunged AH, weighing on software. Macro sentiment: the Fed held steady..."
datetime: "2026-10-29T00:43:55.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44610024.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44610024.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/44610024.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Dolphin Daily | Heavy fine for GOOGL, reward for MSFT? Results rule.

Good morning. It is Beijing time Oct 29, 2026, and Dolphin Research brings you a one-glance take on global markets.

**Trading focus**: MSFT Azure up 48% with shares higher after-hours, while GOOGL search slows and FCF turns negative, dropping nearly 10% post-close. SK Hynix’s 'sold out through 2029' comment sparked a rally in memory and Korean equities, and NOW and FTNT plunged after-hours, weighing on software.

**Macro tone**: The Fed held rates, but two votes favored a hike and the statement upgraded its economic assessment. The 2Y UST fell 4bp and the 10Y rose 2bp to 5.02%, while Iran rejected a ceasefire draft and WTI rose 2.9%.

**Key movers**: SOX +1.8%, led by memory and equipment, with VRT +16.5% and ORCL +10.7%. Nasdaq futures -1% after-hours as software and the AI complex gave back gains.

**Near-term watch**:

Today: Samsung Electronics reports. The FCC votes on the sat-to-cell spectrum proposal (SPCX).

Tonight: 20:30 US Q3 GDP and Sep PCE, and 21:15 ECB decision. These are key prints for inflation and rate expectations.

Tomorrow morning: AMZN, INTC, and SNDK report. All three are in focus for cloud, CPUs, and NAND pricing respectively.

Next week: AAPL and PLTR (11/2), US midterms and AMD (11/3). Anthropic is reportedly eyeing an IPO the week of 11/16.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) , $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) ,$Micron Tech(MU.US) $Samsung Electronics (SSNGY.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) , $Seagate Tech(STX.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US) $Service Corporation International(SCI.US) $Fortinet(FTNT.US) ,$Lumentum(LITE.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) 

Performance windows: For US equities and global assets, moves are vs. the 10/28 close (after-hours around 20:00 ET). For Japan and Korea, moves are today’s open vs. prior close.

**1\. Same cash burn, different verdicts: MSFT rewarded, GOOGL punished as the market scores AI on cash flow**

**GOOGL +1.3% (post -9.9%) / MSFT -0.1% (post +2.9%)**

Two reports on the same night: MSFT’s Azure revenue was $33.17bn, up 48%, topping the 44–45% guide and buyside at 46–48%. It guided next quarter to 49–50%, with shares up as much as 7% after-hours.

MSFT capex (incl. leases) was $45.2bn, below the '>$50bn' guide, and FCF of $18.6bn was far above the roughly $8.5bn expected. Next quarter capex is set to exceed $50bn and approx. $170bn for the calendar year, with the blemish being commercial bookings down 12% YoY.

MSFT recognized about $10bn of revenue from OpenAI this quarter, ~11% of total, and OpenAI still owes $7.2bn in receivables. CEO Nadella said the first batch of NVDA Vera Rubin is now available on Azure.

GOOGL was 'cloud strong, core weak': cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.7bn but fell short of the buyside’s $31–32.5bn. Search rose 12% to $63.35bn, below the 14.7% consensus and buyside 13–14%, vs. +17% in Q2, while YouTube ads were only +9%.

GOOGL capex was $51.4bn, ~40% of revenue, with FCF at **-$9.1bn**. EPS of $2.12 badly missed the $3.02 estimate, mainly due to an ~$8.6bn paper loss on SPCX holdings, and even ex that EPS of ~$2.67 still missed.

GOOGL left 2026 capex guidance unchanged but still signaled a **meaningful increase** in 2027, with buyside modeling around $350bn. The CFO flagged compute tightness and the use of third-party capacity, which will pressure cloud margins near term.

On flows, MSFT is seen as a 'crowded long' and GOOGL a 'crowded short', and longs were rewarded while shorts took profits. Both companies’ 5Y CDS hit new highs ahead of earnings.

AI proxies broadly faded after-hours: CRWV -4.4%, NBIS -5.1%, MU -2.5%, and AVGO -2.2%, with Nasdaq futures -1%. The market’s scoring rubric is: chase capex beneficiaries on 'how much you invest', but for CSPs the focus is whether monetization and cash flow keep pace.

**Dolphin take: MSFT’s key Azure growth met the bullish end of buyside expectations and is set to re-accelerate next quarter.** ([*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44608875))

**GOOGL’s search deceleration validates the AI erosion narrative. The post-close break below $300 nears the divergence level we flagged, but sentiment may still cap the multiple near term.** ([*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44608820))

**2\. SK Hynix 'sold out to 2029': is memory shifting from cycles to 'contracted infrastructure'?**

**SKHY +13.3% (ADR) / SK Hynix +10.9% (Seoul) / Samsung Electronics +9.0% (Seoul) / MU +5.9%**

**SNDK +7.7% / LRCX +5.4% / AMAT +5.1% / STX +4.5% / KLAC +3.3% (post +3.7%)**

Korean media report BABA, Tencent, and ByteDance are seeking DRAM LTAs up to 10 years. Some channel checks note Huaqiangbei DDR5 spot has pulled back with Oct volumes down 20–30%, suggesting consumer cooling, while Reuters says CXMT plans small-batch advanced AI memory despite poor yields.

STX is the weak link in the memory chain: price per TB rose 16% QoQ, but shipments were up only 1% EB and unit cost rose ~3%, with Dec guidance below the buyside. It fell 2.5% pre-market but closed up 4.5% with the memory rally.

Equipment stocks followed higher on expected capex hikes at SK Hynix next year. KLAC posted after-hours with Dec-quarter revenue guidance of $4.7bn, above the $4.49bn consensus.

**Dolphin take: SK Hynix’s upside is in mix — pricing beat, shipments to accelerate next quarter, quantified LTAs with >50% coverage, and heavy buybacks/dividends underpinning shares. Near- to mid-term earnings look safe, but the real debate is how long the upcycle lasts.** ([*Earnings Review*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44585164))

**STX is 'price > expected, volume < expected', and HAMR cost-down did not show up in the numbers this quarter.** ([*Earnings Review*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44585575))

**3\. Software carnage after-hours: why did 'beats' drop 18% and 26%?**

**FTNT -5.9% (post -25.9%) / NOW -3.0% (post -18.0%) / PANW -1.8% (post -6.2%) / CRWD -0.5% (post -6.4%) / CRM +0.5% (post -5.6%)**

**NOW** subscription revenue of $3.99bn merely met consensus, below the buyside’s $4.01–4.03bn. cRPO grew 21% at constant FX, below the buyside’s 21.5–22%.

The guidance hurt more: Q4 cRPO +18.5% vs. 19% consensus and bulls’ 19.5–20%, or ~17% ex-M&A. Q4 OPM guide at 32% trails the 33.5% consensus, and AI deployment spend shaved 50bps off subscription growth.

**FTNT** beat on revenue and EPS, but product revenue grew 37% vs. buyside’s >50% and +52% in Q2. Services revenue of $1.31bn missed, and full-year services revenue guidance was cut to $5.15–5.17bn.

FTNT’s Q4 revenue guide of +15.5% fell short of bulls’ 18–19%, and FFIV also fell 20% the same day. The bear case that the firewall replacement cycle has peaked took the upper hand.

FTNT is up 119% YTD, and with lofty expectations, narrower beats drew heavy penalties. Cyber and broader SaaS fell roughly 6% after-hours, and CRM also dropped 5.6%.

**4\. ORCL sets a payback timetable, VRT orders double: AI infra money and orders are still flowing**

**VRT +16.5% / ORCL +10.7% / CRWV +7.3% / NBIS +7.0%**

**AAOI +6.8% / LITE +5.5% (post +8.8%) / MRVL +3.3% (post -8.1%)**

**ORCL Investor Day**: FCF to turn positive in 2H FY2028 and exceed $30bn in FY2029, with capex down in FY2029. This directly addresses concerns over leveraged expansion.

Before FY2030, new financing is capped at $20bn ($10bn equity and $10bn debt). Net debt/EBITDA will be kept within 3.5x.

**ORCL also set targets for FY2030 of revenue ≥$225bn (35%+ CAGR), OPM ≥40%, and EPS ≥$21.** New cloud names rallied in tandem, and on 10/27 ORCL confirmed deploying GOOGL TPU on OCI starting 2027.

**VRT** 3Q revenue was $4.31bn, organic +55% vs. buyside ~37%, its largest beat since listing. Organic orders doubled, full-year organic growth was raised to 37–39%, and 4Q guidance merely matched buyside numbers.

Optical components rallied during cash hours, then another twist after-hours: Bloomberg reported MRVL is in advanced talks to acquire LITE (mkt cap ~ $83bn), with an announcement as early as next week. LITE jumped as much as 17.8% after-hours.

**1\. The Fed held, but two voters sought a hike (10/28)**

**Decision**: Rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, with a 10–2 vote as Cook and Hummack favored a 25bp hike. The Bank of Canada hiked 25bp to 2.5% the same day, its first in over three years.

**Statement**: The economic view was upgraded from 'solid' to 'strong'. It dropped 'policy will help inflation return to 2% more promptly' and said it needs more information to judge stance.

**Waller remarks**: Starting in 2027, one meeting a year will discuss strategy without a vote, and he refused to pre-judge Dec. He also said AI investment is subject to rate sensitivity.

**Rates reaction**: 2Y -3.95bp to 4.70% and 10Y +2.08bp to 5.02%, with the curve spread widening to 32bp. JP Morgan believes as long as EPS growth exceeds 15%, US equities can digest a 10Y rising to 5.5%–6.0%.

**For tech**: The front end fell, but the long end stayed above 5%. High-valuation, FCF-negative AI names are more rate-sensitive, and only true growers with earnings can withstand higher rates. Tonight’s PCE is the next puzzle piece for a potential Dec hike.

**2\. More volatile assets (10/28)**

**SOX +1.8% to 11,684**: memory and equipment led, with the semi equipment sub-index +3.2%. Nasdaq futures -1% after-hours.

**WTI Dec +2.9% to $102.78**: Iran rejected the ceasefire draft conveyed by Qatar, and the US has notified Gulf states to prepare for post-midterm military action. Brent Dec +1.3% to $115.32.

**VIX -3.5% to 16.9**: vol eased after the Fed decision.

**3\. Asia open and today’s setup (10/29)**

**Asia tape**: Nikkei +0.3% and KOSPI +0.1%, with SK Hynix +1.6% and Samsung Electronics -0.4% (reports today). Hang Seng futures night session +0.2% and FTSE A50 futures about -0.1%.

**Memory**: Korea largely priced SK Hynix’s print yesterday, and today hinges on Samsung’s report. A-share memory and equipment map to the theme, but Huaqiangbei spot pullback flags consumer cooling.

**GOOGL complex and software**: GOOGL down nearly 10% after-hours and Nasdaq futures -1% imply pressure on HK tech and A-share GOOGL chain names in optical modules and TPU-related. Cybersecurity and SaaS screens weaker.

**Compute infra**: MSFT Azure re-accelerated, ORCL laid out a cash-flow path, and VRT orders doubled. Liquid cooling, power systems, and compute leasing are relatively favored.

**NVDA**｜$5.20tn｜**-1.2%** (post -0.7%)

Reuters: The US DOJ is probing how NVDA’s $12.93bn acquisition of Hugging Face would affect AI competition. It continues to investigate NVDA’s acquisitions, investments, and alleged pressure on customers.

**AVGO**｜$1.68tn｜**+2.8%** (post -2.2%)

Traded weaker after-hours following GOOGL. Our diligence suggests GOOGL Cloud’s surprise may tie to TPU shipment cadence, e.g., v8i slipping a quarter. ([*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44608820))

**CBRS**｜**-5.7%**

Short seller Culper disclosed a short, alleging wafer-level chip field life of only 1.2–2.5 years. Shares fell as much as 11% intraday to a record low since listing, which Reuters could not independently verify.

**AAPL**｜$5.02tn｜**-0.9%** (post +0.6%)

Launched the first touch-screen MacBook Pro with OLED and M5 Pro/Max chips, starting at $2,899 for 14 inches. Ahead of 11/2 earnings, iPhone Duo sold out at launch, and the market is focused on supply build and storage price hikes’ impact on GPM.

**SPCX**｜$1.97tn｜**-2.3%** (post -1.1%)

The three major carriers asked the FCC to remove ~290MHz of spectrum from the sat-to-cell proposal, with a vote today. GOOGL booked an ~$8.6bn paper loss in Q3 on its SPCX holdings.

**GEV**｜**-1.9%**

3Q EBITDA was $1.94bn vs. $1.69bn expected, with full-year guidance raised again, buybacks doubling to $20bn, and a $9bn acquisition of Trench. The debate is about gas turbines, with 11GW of new orders and ~20GW each in 1Q and 2Q.

**InnoLight 300308.SZ**｜$111.7bn｜prior close **+10.3%**

A-share optical modules led yesterday, while peer TFC reported 3Q net profit +55% and said core material tightness has eased markedly.

**Date**

**Event**

**Focus**

10/29

Samsung Electronics 3Q

HBM4 share and LTAs

10/29 20:30;21:15

US Q3 GDP, Sep PCE, Jobless; ECB rate decision

Inflation and Dec hike odds; policy stance amid energy inflation

10/29 post-close

AMZN, INTC, SNDK earnings

See previews below

11/2 post-close

AAPL, PLTR earnings

See previews below

11/3

US midterms; AMD, ANET earnings

Middle East backdrop post-election

11/4

ARM, QCOM earnings

AI CPU and handsets

**AMZN｜post-close 10/29**

**Watch**: CEO Andy Jassy said 2026 capacity is sold out and 2027 is basically sold out, with full-year capex raised to ~ $220bn. The market will watch whether AWS growth can match MSFT and GOOGL’s cloud acceleration.

**Dolphin focus**: AWS revenue growth and backlog, capex vs. FCF, and Anthropic-related compute revenue.

**INTC｜post-close 10/29**

**Watch**: CPU price hikes and AI inference are boosting server CPU demand, and the stock has already recovered sharply. The market will look for foundry customer progress to keep pace.

**Dolphin focus**: DC and AI revenue, GPM, 18A/14A foundry customers, and capex.

**SNDK｜post-close 10/29**

**Watch**: SK Hynix NAND ASPs are up mid-20% and Kioxia surged, and the market expects NAND price gains to continue. The debate is that NAND price increases decelerate the fastest.

**Dolphin focus**: NAND ASP and bit shipments, enterprise SSD mix, and LTA coverage.

**AAPL｜post-close 11/2**

**Watch**: iPhone Duo sold out with full-year shipment targets raised. Storage price hikes’ pressure on hardware GPM is the main concern.

**Dolphin focus**: iPhone revenue and Dec-quarter guide, GPM, and services growth.

**Recent Daily Recap**

2026-10-28: [Daily Recap | AI prospectus revives AI investing as 'growth' memory gets no credit?](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44580167)

2026-10-27: [Daily Recap | Anthropic reports, Meta’s $95bn drain, and AI panic eases?](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44558226)

\<End>

Risk disclosure and statement: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosures](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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## Comments (1)

- **Noobie · 2026-10-29T15:49:06.000Z**: moooooo


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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**